Thursday, November 8, 2012

Solving New York's OF Dilemma

The New York Yankees have a vacant spot in RF, and the question is how are they gonna deal with it? For years the answer was that they would just get whoever it was that they wanted. That's the Yankees way.

But this year things are different. The Yankees have set a goal of getting below the luxury tax threshold in a year. And so they do not want multi-year commitments. The challenge is to find a way to replace Nick Swisher at the same time. The solution I'm proposing will not only help now, but help them long term stay under the threshold.

The plan involves moving away from power. It definitely isn't the "Yankee way" but the Yankees still have power on the infield. And let's face it, the power method has done little to get the Yankees to the World Series with only one victory (2 appearances) in the last decade. Considering in that span they only missed the playoffs once, that is a significant inability to deliver in the playoffs, and one of those reasons is that pitching has bested their power offense. A new approach may help them with this. And if it does not work out well, the good news is it is a short term set up letting the Yankees revisit their slugger rich philosophy shortly.

The plan is simple: move Brett Gardner to center-field, sign Torii Hunter to play left and resign Ichiro  to play in right. Then trade Curtis Granderson for pitching help. The shuffle clearly moves from power to contact. No doubt the Yankees offense looks a lot different without Granderson or Swisher's power, but it would make the team more balanced. Especially without knowing which Derek Jeter will show up next year after his injury, the aging shortstop with declining skills or the hall of fame competitor and team captain, it would be wise to have more table setters than Gardner. 
Ichiro returned to his star spray hitter form when he came to New York. The energy of the race and the hitter park (not too mention being in a better lineup) all helped him greatly. And he handled playing in the big city flawlessly. He has already indicated he would like to play in New York again, and the Yankees should oblige. He is the quiet veteran type that fits in well with this team and is at the stage in his career where one year deal makes sense. This whole arrangement is based on my belief that Ichiro is perfect for the Yankees.

Now I could have stopped there. Just stick Ichiro in RF and call it a day. Some may prefer that. But here is the bottom line: New York is short on high level prospects, needs to shed salary, and most of all will almost certainly not be able to keep both Granderson and Cano after this season when both become free agents. Cano needs to be the priority to the Yankees. He's home grown, and a regular MVP talent. His game includes contact and power. He's the bigger star, and plays a much more difficult position to replace that kind of offense. The Yankees could play out this year then make a qualifying offer next season and get a draft pick for Granderson. But they could get much more if they deal him now.

A center-fielder who has had back-to-back 40 home run seasons is always valuable. And he would be an ideal alternative to Josh Hamilton for teams that want to win now but not commit that much money for that many years, or to teams that simply lose out on the Hamilton bidding. Trading Granderson now also allows the team that gets him to get a draft pick should they not be able to retain him. Therefore, they should deal him for young, controllable pitching which will help the team stay under the tax long term.

Hunter is a great veteran and team player. Like Ichiro he is not the fielder he once was, but still a quality asset. I would expect his slash line to look lower than his 2012 as his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was unsustainably high this year. So I would expect him to hit .270-.280, not .313 but he is well rounded, being able to steal some bases, hit for a solid average, hit some home runs. He kind of reminds me of former Yankee Paul O'Neil's later years.

Hunter may require two years, and the Yankees right now do not want to pay him next year too (as Hunter has already been linked to New York's RF opening). If they were free of Granderson's contract they might be more open to having Hunter for 2013 and '14. But otherwise it means just upping the ante this season and paying him something like $15 million for one year, since Hunter will have a hard time doing better than that, and his desire for a World Series ring should be enough for him to come for even one year to New York.

These players would require short term commitments while letting the Yanks add cheap long term additions by trading Granderson. With the Yankees changing direction in spending, they can also try changing direction in their line-ups. Give it a try for a year.

That's my solution. What's yours?

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