A double dose of Upton

In a previous post I advocated that Justin Upton is a perfect match for the Texas Rangers to trade for. I still think it makes a lot of sense. But that doesn't mean another team is not a great fit for Upton as well. Here I propose the Braves trade for Upton.

Why? Funny you should hypothetically ask.

• The Braves have lost two big bats in Chipper Jones' retirement and Michael Bourn's free agency. Outside of Uggla, the team lacks right handed power. While the team picked up a right handed CF who hits with some power, his speed will likely have him hitting lead off for the team.
• Did I mention that the new CF the team signed was Justin Upton's brother BJ Upton? Well I should, because baseball loves even when siblings play against each other, they'd really love if they were both brought to the same team to reload this offense. That's right, a double dose of Upton would be an awesome story to watch them play side by side, and it would certainly give this team a boost they need.
• Justin is perhaps the better of the two brothers. He has already had an MVP top 5 finish, he is a five tool player, and with the absence of Jones' this team could use some young star power for the fans.
• When I say Justin is perhaps the better, I mean that because after a break out 2011 season where he led this team to the playoffs, he disappointed comparatively in 2012, going from a .289/.369/.529 line to a .280/.355/.430 line. He also regressed in homers from 31 to 17, 88 rbi to 67, and 39 doubles to 24. Jason Heyward had similar issues from his rookie to sophomore season (but he started to return to the middle order hitter they were hoping for last year). I think of Upton quite similarly, he is young with tons of potential, plenty of hype but a bit of a question mark. That said, Atlanta should take the risk. They need a star, and here is one available. And quite frankly, even if his numbers were closer to his 2012 numbers than 2011, he'd still be a quality addition for this team.
• The Upton duo would be an excellent defensive tandem in Atlanta's outfield. Losing Bourn will likely make an impact as most defensive measures loved his centerfield defense. Upton was a good pickup and the Upton double dose would be a great way to compensate.
• Atlanta has been in recent years quite weary of giving large contracts to free agents (the other Upton one of the few exceptions, but even that was to aim to go cheaper than negotiations with Bourn and his wunderkind agent Scott Boras). Justin Upton is under a relatively team friendly contract and he is controllable through his prime. That is the ideal time and way to have a player. Given their budget restrictions and reasons a team would not want a long term commitment to a 30 year old free agent, this makes sense for the team.

If Upton offers star power, affordability, right handed production, and the pure feel good baseball story of playing side by side with his brother in Atlanta, now lets talk seriousness of a deal. This is the other reason I advocate this, because Atlanta could pair up well with Arizona as a trade partner. Like the Rangers, Atlanta did not seem to work while Arizona was demanding a SS back in a trade, since it was not Pastornicky but Andrelton Simmons, a highly regarded defensive SS that Arizona was rumored to have expected back in a deal. But now that Arizona seems satisfied with the SS they received in the 3 team deal with the Indians and Reds, the team could match up in another way. Here is where I would start:

3B Juan Francisco and LHP Mike Minor as a starting point. Francisco offers a potential long-term or platoon option at 3B. He is rather young, bats lefty, but has had limited playing time in the majors. And from 2007-2011 in the minors has hit at least 20 HR each year in the minors and has slugged .559 in his years at AAA, thus he definitely has power potential. Minor was a fast tracked first rounder and got his first full season as a starter this last year. His innings have increased and his ERA decreased each year, attractive qualities of a young, highly regarded left-hander. His WHIP has improved dramatically as well. One place of steady regression as been in k/9, which is not great, but he still kept it at a respectable 7.3 last year while pitching almost 180 innings. So it is not dipping to Jair Jurrjens levels. These two offer young, controllable, major league ready contributors. This is why I think they are a good starting point, because when a team moves a star, fans at least want someone who can contribute right away. From here I think Atlanta would need to give some highly regarded lower level prospects. 

But Atlanta is in a good spot that they could have another player to use as a starting point. No doubt Julio Teheran would perhaps even appeal more to the Arizona front office, as he is exceptionally young and considered a future ace in potential. But since I imagine that makes Atlanta more reluctant to deal him, I would imagine he is only in the deal as a centerpiece or sole piece of a trade and only if that is what it takes. Maybe the Braves throw in Pastornicky if they are that confident in Simmons and if Arizona wants a back up to their new young SS (or if they want him to start in the minors). Based on the almost Upton deal that would have sent him to the Mariners had Upton not used his limited no-trade clause, we can see that pitching is a particular target for Arizona (or at least something the team is willing to receive in return for Upton). The Braves having good young pitchers makes them an ideal match. 

Based on the Seattle deal, it will likely take more prospects, but these names offer some headliners. If Texas is still in the running for Upton, and they might be, it could take more as Arizona could start a bidding war. While I would love to see an Upton-Upton double dose in the Braves OF, I think this only works if ATL can do it without too steep a cost. I originally paired Texas with Arizona as potential matches because I think they are more desperate for a headliner move like Upton. And I still think that. I forget who proposed it, but a few weeks back a writer proposed that Atlanta would not be in a bad position if they used Prado in a double platoon, pairing Prado in LF and Francisco at 3B against RHP and Prado at 3B with Reed Johnson in LF against LHP. It is an intriguing thought. No doubt Upton and Prado is a better pair, but I think that option shows why Atlanta should not be desperate and overspend for Upton, but simply make as serious run at him and make Arizona find a better offer.