2013 MLB Predictions

Been a while since I posted folks. Since my last post I've moved back to Wisconsin and started a new call at two churches. So things are a bit busy. But I thought today I would just throw out my early predictions for this year in baseball. The problem with predictions are they are always wrong because there is always a team that surprises and always a team that flops. But predicting is still lots of fun, especially when you try to anticipate who will flop and who will surprise. So, without further ado, here is my 2013 MLB predictions:

National League:
NL WEST
1. SF Giants
2. LA Dodgers
3. SD Padres
4. ARZ Diamondbacks
5. COL Rockies

This feels like a two tiered division where it will be the Giants and Dodgers duking it out for first while the other three are a ways behind. While the Dodgers have all of the sudden begun to outspend the Yankees, that doesn't convince me of anything. Not only did great spending only yield for the Yankees 1 World Series title in the last decade, but as we saw with the 2011-2012 Red Sox, big names to big contracts does not equal big success. And half the big names to big contracts the Dodgers took on came straight from that Red Sox team. If any team in the National League is poised to disappoint, it is probably the Dodgers. The Giants on the other hand are defending World Series champs (their second such title in a few years) and they did it with an uncharacteristic season from Tim Lincecum. They also have the reigning NL MVP (no matter what I may think of the BWAA vote) who at his age could easily be better in 2013. Although the biggest surprise here might be picking the Padres for third. If you want to anticipate surprises in 2013, I think this is a good one to anticipate. This team is better than we give it credit for, particularly if Headley builds off of his monster second half in 2012 and the likes of Grandal and Cabrera can continue to produce while avoiding PED suspensions. The biggest factor for this team could be 1B Alonso. He was a key piece in the Latos trade, and then convinced this team to trade another young slugger (Rizzo) to Chicago. The Diamondbacks could easily surprise too, but to me they did not really get better this year. They picked up an aging closer/set-up man from Florida, sent away two-thirds of their outfield, over payed for Cody Ross when they didn't need him in their outfield, traded away a guy who finished top 5 in MVP two years ago (Upton), and dealt one of their young pitchers away for a shortstop we know little about and who may not be MLB ready. The have a good enough team to surprise with their pitching (Cahill, Hudson, Kennedy) and some of their key hitters (Kubel, Goldschmidt, Hill, Prado), but I'm not anticipating it. Their GM is one of the hardest to grade in baseball, half the time looking the dumbest and half perhaps the most brilliant. Not much needs to be said for Colorado. They have two hitting stars in Tulo and Car-Go assuming they can stay healthy. But given the cast and especially pitching around them they seem more likely to be traded than lead this team to a World Series.

NL CENTRAL
1. CIN Reds
2. STL Cardinals
3. PIT Pirates
4. CHI Cubs
5. MIL Brewers

In this NL Central, anything could go differently. If the Pirates can finish out a season strong instead of playing a great 80-120 games and petering out they could perhaps win this division. We know they have the talent. They have an MVP caliber star to go with a solid cast of players, some better pitching than years past, and most importantly some great pitching prospects on the verge of being difference makers. The Cardinals I hate to admit as a Brewer's fan just never seem to go away. They've basically been good for the last decade. Even last year when they lost their highly successful jerk of a manager and the best hitter to ever put on a red bird jersey they still managed to be good. And they have a strong system. But I think the Reds might do it this year for the Central. They have good (although not as good as some think) starting pitching, a strong bullpen (not too mention Chapman who will be a difference maker as a closer or starter), they got elite bats in Votto and Bruce to go with strong ones in Phillips and Choo, and Ryan Ludwick thrives in this stadium. Barring a major injury, particularly to Votto this team should be the one to beat. But any setbacks and the Cardinals could step up. In fact I first pegged the Cardinals to win because of how strong this team is, but with Carpenter down, me not being convinced Wainright is the ace he once was, Lohse walking, and guys like Beltran and Furcal getting older and annually injured I expect some regression. They are still a strong team, but I don't expect Beltran to hit like he did in 2012, and that alone mixed with some pitching questions (although this team better than any in baseball seems to solve pitching questions) makes me think they will be in second place, perhaps a wild card winner this year. It was hard to pick the Brewers last, but with the steroid investigation in Miami where Braun is linked he might be suspended, but even if he isn't they are without Hart for the start of the season, Gamel is gone another year, and Aramis Ramirez ain't getting younger. Add to it the new look bullpen (which should be better than last year but is hard to predict) and the decision to give the rotation spots to some of Milwaukee's many young pitchers I expect it might be a rough year. Last year was sort of a real middle ground season, where you could say had the bullpen not blown up they would have been in the post-season which is true, but also short of their great late season surge they would have been a below average team and had a losing record, also true. But really the deciding factor is that the division has gotten tougher. The Astros are no longer around and that impact will be big on all the NL Central teams numbers this year. But also the other teams all seem better (except for maybe the Cardinals, but they are still in much better shape as a franchise than Milwaukee). The Cubs may actually in my book win most improved club this year, which is why I think they won't finish last. Epstein has quietly had a great offseason, and this team is on the rise. They are not winners yet, but will be moving in the right direction.

NL EAST
1. WAS Nationals
2. ATL Braves
3. PHI Phillies
4. NY Mets
5. MIA Marlins

Funny part is the hardest part of predicting this division is who would finish last between New York and Miami. Ultimately Miami has more potential to be awful it seemed. The Mets on the other hand lost their Cy Young winner, that's a lot of wins to make up. But they have a few more proven players and a healthy Johan Santana could always turn in a good year. Miami requires a lot of prospects to succeed. Now those who remember when they rebuilt in the past they had immediate success from names such as Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, but I am not counting on it. That and the Mets also added some fine prospects from Toronto's system as well. The Phillies could be better than the Braves. It is hard to tell which will have a tougher impact: the loss of Braves' star Chipper Jones or Phillies' stars another year older. Who will be a less productive 2B in 2013: Uggla or Utley? The difference between these teams I think is the Braves did a bit better retooling this winter, adding the Upton brothers to the outfield. But no matter how much better or how worse these teams end up, the Nationals are the team to beat. They have a strong team, a good core, and some depth. Hard to imagine this team being much worse in 2012.

NL MVP: Joey Votto
Well, Braun won't win anytime soon and Votto can put up better numbers than Posey, especially considering their ballparks (the argument used that Posey's ballpark handicapped his numbers against Braun would not likely be used for Votto since BWAA and general public have no issues with him). Votto is the star of his team, and if the Reds win the division as I claimed it will almost certainly include a great year from him. If Votto does not win I imagine either McCutchen held on for a whole year or Headley really broke out. McCutchen might even be a safer pick in that he plays a tougher position excellently and steals bases, but Votto has won before. I'm giving it to him.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
This guy is the best pitcher in perhaps baseball right now. He's a winner and his team is better, which means he should be all the more successful this year. The guy is also wicked young. My sleeper is Lincecum who in a contract year is likely poised for a major comeback season. He's won two Cy Youngs before, I would not rule out a third. The third best option I would say might be a Braves pitcher. I keep it generic because they have several arms (Medlan and Beachy) that need to be healthy and successful over a whole season but in their limited time were pretty amazing pitchers.
NL Rolaids Relief Pitcher of the Year: Ardolis Chapman
So long as Cincinnati keeps Chapman as a closer he will dominate. His stuff is filthy and his numbers last year were absurd.
NL Rookie of the Year: Wily Peralta
It seems odd to pick someone not even on most top 100 prospect lists, but because the Brewers are committing to going with their young starters, it means their young starters have the best shot at a full season of work. Peralta has been a top Brewers prospect and had a great showing last year up in the majors. The one catch is that Rogers being out of options and Fiers after his strong start last year likely will be on the roster, if one of them (or Narveson) is not sent to the pen, Peralta may begin in the minors. But he is really the best of those young arms, so hopefully he gets his shot, because he could turn in a strong 2013.
NL Champions: Nationals.
This is the best team on paper. Last year they showed they are not just an on paper team. I fully expect them to succeed and make it to the World Series. They are in a good position to get there.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL WEST
1. ANA Angels
2. OAK A's
3. TEX Rangers
4. SEA Mariners
5. HOU Astros

Yes they are still the Anaheim Angels to me. Sometimes I'm real slow to change, although fans of advanced metrics already know this as I have given my lack of support particularly to everyone's favorite statistic (WAR). But anyways, the top of this division will be hard to tell. Three teams were in it last year, and the Mariners have been quietly improving the last couple years and with some added offense and a not so spacious outfield, they figure to improve again. The Angels though missed out on a big pitcher and so added a big hitter, already having Trout and Pujols and their rotation not being bad they seem the best positioned team to me. Deciding between Oakland and Texas though for second in the division is tough. The Rangers have been a playoff team for several straight years, but they got eliminated in the Wild Card game last year, and had perhaps the worst offseason of any team (at least of any contender). They lost their star bat (Hamilton) to the competition, and failed to replace him with an offseason stalemate in Justin Upton trade rumors. They failed also to get Greinke or any top starter for their rotation. And they dealt away Michael Young for a little saving, but put that savings nowhere. Lance Berkman was their big pickup. He may do well as their DH in that stadium, but he probably shouldn't be counted on for a full season anymore with his age and injury history. Perhaps they are waiting for a better free agent market, but it means this will not be as good a year. Oakland, while I think they played a bit above their heads last year, did improve this offseason, so I think they will still remain in contention. This whole division though will benefit by the addition of Houston who will look like a ragtag of players akin to the Major League movies, except hating their owner won't make them better.

AL CENTRAL
1. DET Tigers
2. CLE Indians
3. KC Royals
4. CHI White Sox
5. MIN Twins

It is going to be an interesting year in the Central. Mainly because Cleveland and Kansas City have made significant improvements. The Tigers are still the easy favorites. They added a good team player and solid outfielder in Torii Hunter and retained Anibal Sanchez to keep their rotation strong. They have the reigning MVP along with Prince Fielder to give the team a great middle order threat. And Fielder seems to have monster seasons every other year, so this year ya gotta watch out. Victor Martinez also returns to join the line-up. The only real issue I think will be the back end of the bullpen as there is no experienced closer there. Say what you want about how overhyped the closer role is, the bottom line is teams without a good solid one rarely make the playoffs. But this team is aggressive enough that if their rookie closer does not pan out I'm sure they'll find someone. Cleveland gets credit for making several upgrades this offseason. They turned one year of Choo into an excellent young pitcher, which is important as their rotation is very shaky. They also used patience and shrunken markets to get Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn at a discounted price. This also gives them a slight surplus in outfielders so if they wanted to make a trade they could (or at least they will have depth in case of injuries). As they are in the weakest division in baseball and have made these improvements I think they ought go out and sign Kyle Lohse or trade for Chris Capuano. The team has already forfeit two draft picks, so they will not be losing a top pick for Lohse at this point, and should make the move if they want a real chance at the division or playoffs. The Royals have also finally decided it is time to try to climb the division, beefing up their rotation most notably with pitcher James Shields. The Royals have two years of Shields and need to make the most of it. We'll see how the team shapes up this year, but I would not be surprised by a big signing or extension next offseason, especially if this team gets over the .500 mark. The Sox played over their heads last year and faded late. If they could not beat teams like the Royals last season it will be harder this year. Besides, Rios has to be horrible every other year right? And Konerko and Dunn ain't getting younger. The Twins are rebuilding. They dealt their two center fielders. A strong first half will likely mean the loss of Morneau maybe (though far less likely) even Mauer. They can thank the Astros' arrival for preventing them from being the American League's worst team.

AL EAST
1. NY Yankees
2. TOR Blue Jays
3. TB Rays
4. BOS Red Sox
5. BAL Orioles

What has been the most consistent and predictable division in baseball has all of the sudden become the most difficult to predict. Every team in this division has an argument of being a playoff team. And I imagine one if not both of the Wild Cards will come from here. The decision to put the Yankees first is because while there is real argument for them being a worse team this year, they are so consistently good, only missing the playoffs once since the mid 90's I think Cashman deserves the benefit of the doubt here. That and while they will be less powerful, they may be a more balanced team in 2013. If well managed, and barring major regression/injuries from some of their vets this team can still win the division. The Jays are another all in team that deserves credit for trying to take their team to the next level. Much like the Dodgers, I think with all the buzz is more potential to flop. But when you have hitters like Bautista, Encarnacion (assuming he can do 75% percent of what he did last year), Lawrie, Arencibia, Reyes, and Bonifacio that is a solid team. Add in a rotation including Johnson, Dickey, Romero, Morrow, and Buehrle...that is pretty strong. The only real issue for me is injury concerns which several of those named carry. The Rays are just a well run franchise, and figure to be good still, although losing guys like Upton and Shields makes me wonder if they will be playoff bound this year. Boston I picked fourth because I think this team has to be better than they've been. They are a pretty different team, we will see how it plays out, but I think they will come back solid. Baltimore goes last because they cannot count on a repeat of last year's success. You just should not expect your bullpen to be historically good again. But the team had one of the quieter offseasons and did little to improve. They have the talent, especially if some of those many young pitchers step up to be all the way atop this division, they are more where they are because the division is well balanced, some teams got tougher and they did little to improve when I think they needed to.

AL MVP: Mike Trout
With a full season, even with a sophomore slump Mike Trout will almost certainly have the numbers to win MVP. Since no one is likely winning the triple crown this year and the Angels I have pegged for division champs, it seems inevitable. Not too mention the sympathy votes he will get for not winning this year, since baseball voting is ridiculous like that. But even so, I think he'll deserve it. When Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton take back seats to your stardom it is impressive. But if it were not Trout, I would have to guess either Prince Fielder who like I say is due for another big season or Robinson Cano who is on a walk year.
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
King Felix is one of baseball's best, so much so that he has won Cy Young on peripheral stats over wins - a rare feat. Well now he should get some wins with a better offense around him. So long as the walls in Safeco moving in does not increase his numbers much I think he will pick up his second Cy Young this year. Otherwise Justin Verlander is always a threat, or guys like Weaver and Price are in the running each year it seems.
AL Rolaids Relief Pitcher of the Year: Mariano Rivera
Not only is he consistently good enough to win, but several factors this year may increase his chance of winning: the first is that the team may need his saves more, as the Yankees' offense is different and may mean more closer games. Also, because voters are so sentimental, and this may be his final year. If the all-time saves leader cannot nail down one more award, it probably goes to maybe Santos from the Jays, Johnson of the Orioles, or maybe Ryan Madson makes a strong return with the Angels.
AL Rookie of the Year: Manny Machado
I would pick Profar from TEX but they have 3 middle infielders in Profar, Andrus, and Kinsler and so I'm unsure how regular his playing time will be this year. Machado on the other hand seems the Orioles' best 3B option, at least for while Hardy is still their SS. Their weakness at 3B and really at 2B also makes me think he'll get more starts and therefore sport the better numbers. But if Profar gets the ABs he could easily win it, I would also keep an eye on if Minnesota lets Aaron Hicks take over in their CF vacancy, or if one of the Mariners' many young pitchers breaks camp.
AL Champions: Angels
They have three big name hitters, solid pitching, and an owner hungry for a championship ring. If they can win the division, they can go far in the playoffs. Otherwise I really think the Yankees are in a better position as a playoff team. Power is hard to rely on in the postseason, so their more balanced lineup in relation to contact and power may help them, so long as it can get them to the playoffs.