So the Brew Crew came within 1 win of forcing a one game playoff for the second wild card, a win they should've had in game 161 when they blew a 6 run lead against the Cardinals. That means this team is well placed for a run at contention in 2018. That said, it is important for the Brewers to not over-invest in next year's roster at such an expense to their long term viability, especially since their playoff chances in part hinged on the Cubs' first half struggles - something they shook off in the second half and ran away with the division in the last two weeks of baseball and brought them on the cusp of a second straight World Series appearance. Additionally the Cardinals were in it for most of the second half and with a good offseason should certainly be competitive as well. Even the Pirates 2017 woes should not be counted on for 2018 as this is still very much the talented team that was in the top part of the division the last couple years. Therefore, I think the team - while it has financial flexability needs to be cautious in how much it flexes it. This means I don't think the team should make a big splash for a top free agent starting pitcher like mlbtraderumors has argued and predicted.
Let's begin by taking a look at who on the current roster will likely be back for 2018:
SP Chase Anderson
SP Jimmy Nelson (to begin season on DL)
SP Zach Davies
SP Brandon Woodruff
SP/RP Junior Guerra
SP/RP Josh Hader
SP/RP Brent Suter
RP Jacob Barnes
RP Jeremy Jeffress
RP Cory Knebel
RP Jered Hughs
C Manny Pina
1B Jesus Aguilar
1B Eric Thames
IF Jonathan Villar
UT Hernan Perez
2B/IF Eric Sogard
3B Travis Shaw
SS Orlando Arcia
LF Ryan Braun
CF/OF Brett Philips
CF/OF Lewis Brinson
RF Domingo Santana
Noticeably absent are Oliver Drake, Carlos Torres, Keon Broxton, Jett Bandy, Taylor Jungmann, Aaron Wilkerson, Jorge Lopez, Wei-Chung Wang, Andrew Susac, and Stephen Vogt. Of those I expect Jungmann, Wilkerson, Lopez, Wang, Susac, Drake, and Bandy to remain in the franchise as depth. Although I will note that I am unsure if they all have options remaining, and am particularly concerned about Susac, Wang, and Jungmann in that regard. If not, they may essentially have to make the team out of spring training. Torres has already been outrighted and I expect him to become a free agent any day. I also think Vogt should be traded or non-tendered. As good as his bat was, his dismal defense, particularly in throwing out base-stealers was just unacceptable for going forward.
Then we get to Keon, and this brings us to our first major move of my offseason plan. I think this team should trade Keon Broxton. The main reason is that Brinson has done all there is to prove in AAA and warrants a position on the team. Philips also proved he could be a solid CFer for this team. Because Braun is near untradeable and Santana was one of the best players on the team last year, CF needs to be opened up for these guys. I think you let whoever performs better between Brinson/Philips get the bulk of CF duty while the other one spells all three OF players (especially Braun who should not be counted on for more than 120 games). Add in that Perez will likely get ABs also in the OF and there likely is not space for Broxton. If he has any options left it is probably just one, and while his strikeout rate was beyond alarming, his ability to play CF with a solid defensive reputation (some advanced statistics aside) and 20/20 season should make him an appealing alternative to more expensive free agents. Whether Stearns trades him for a different MLB piece (like a catcher or reliever) or for some young low level risky minor leaguers (think Adam Lind trade) would be his prerogative. Nevertheless, I think ultimately now is the time to deal him while he is cheap and coming off of a 20/20 season. Teams that need affordable OFers (especially CFs) and who might not have deep talent pools to trade from will probably be the best matches. To name a few, SF, MIA, SEA, and BAL all strike me as realistic trade partners.
I should note that another option would be to use one of Brinson/Philips in a bigger deal. For me, I think if that happens it needs to be for a top notch, controllable starting pitcher. The thing is, I don't see anyone likely available. Maybe Chris Archer from TB, but he will likely cost a lot from our system that I don't think the team should pay it. But if the right deal comes along and one of those two were moved, then you keep Keon as your 4th OF.
As the roster stands then, this team would need a catcher to pair with Pina, and 2 pitchers. Assuming nothing is addressed by trade here are the free agents I would target:
RHP Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak was a brilliant addition for this bullpen in the second half, striking out 39 in 29 IP while working a 2.48 ERA (and a 2.33 ERA overall for the season). As a reliever he was still worth 2.7 WAR. Additionally, Swarzak had a positive experience in Milwaukee and wants to come back, he just needs to also get his payday. MLBtraderumors is predicting a 2 year $14mm payday, and that seems fair.
LHP Mike Minor. Like Swarzak, who kinda came out of nowhere with his season, Minor was converted to a reliever and became a dominant force out of the pen as well for KC. He had a 2.55 ERA in 77 IP with 88 Ks (good for 2.8 WAR). MLBtraderumors are predicting a 4 year deal in the 28mm range for Minor. I imagine to bring him to Milwaukee may have to make it 30mm as he - being a lefty - is likely to force a bidding war and they do not have the history with him that they have with Swarzak. That said, he is still far cheaper than Jake Arrieta (MLBtrade's SP prediction for MIL at a cost of 4yrs/100mm), and by signing him they can move Hader to the rotation.
C Nick Hundley. Not as flashy as say Alex Avila, but Hundley will be much more affordable and in a back-up role in SF was worth 0.5 WAR with 32 extra-base hits. More importantly, he threw out 29% base stealers last year (as opposed to Vogt's dismal 13%). If I remember correctly he is not a particularly good pitch framer, however. All told, I expect a 1 year deal at less than 5mm to bring him on board.
Some minor league deal kind of targets would include (if they would take them): 2B/SS Danny Espinosa, IF Darwin Barney, OF Hyun Soo Kim, SP Ubaldo Jimenez, SP Jacob Turner, RHP Huston Street,
With these moves this would be the team for 2018:
SP Chase Anderson
SP Zach Davies
SP Josh Hader**
SP Brandon Woodruff
SP Guerra/Suter*
LR Guerra/Suter*
RP Jered Hughs
RP Jeremy Jeffress
RP Jacob Barnes
SU Mike Minor
SU Anthony Swarzak
CP Cory Knebel
C Manny Pina
1B Eric Thames
2B Jonathan Villar/Eric Sogard***
3B Travis Shaw
SS Orlando Arcia
LF Ryan Braun
CF Brett Philips/Lewis Brinson
RF Domingo Santana
BC Nick Hundley
1B Jesus Aguilar
IF Jonathan Villar/Eric Sogard***
OF Brett Philips/Lewis Brinson
UT Hernan Perez
notes:
*While a case could be made to bring in a better arm to round out the rotation, and I wouldn't fight you on at least bringing in more competition, I think the team has several solid options of (Jungmann, Wilkerson, Lopez) in house in addition to these two. I think Guerra really deserves one more chance to show which guy he was. He was really good last spring until the end of spring, then he got injured and never really rebounded. But this guy was our opening day starter last year. I think he gets a chance to prove he can pitch once more this spring. Suter was such a good swing man for this team I think he becomes that for a full year. If Suter beats out Guerra, Guerra might still make the team out of the pen, because a good fastall/splitter combo should be enough to be an effective reliever.
**I envision Hader as the guy to transition from rotation to pen upon Nelson's return, mainly to limit his innings since he spent most of '17 as a reliever. That said, if he is pitching like a #1-2 starter, they aren't going to remove him from that and instead the lowest guy on the totem poll will get bumped.
***MLBtrade expects Milwaukee to bring back Neil Walker. I don't like the move. Not because Walker was a bad player for this team, he was an upgrade at 2B. But Walker is clear he wants to get paid and I don't think Milwaukee should be the one to pay him. For one, they already brought back Sogard which means adding Walker means likely one of Sogard/Villar is the odd man out (and I'm not sure if Villar has any options remaining). To trade away Villar now would be to sell low on him. I think he would be better served also given another chance. His speed and versatility (even if his defense doesn't play well anywhere) alone make him a good bench piece. And if he could just improve his walk rate to his 2016 levels he'd be a quality player. Additionally, you have Hernan Perez who should get plenty of reps at 2B, and top 10 prospect Mauricio Dubon already made it to AAA last year and may be ready by mid 2018 (and 2017 1st round pick Keston Hiura is a very advanced bat and could potentially be fast tracked to the majors this year as well). Therefore, it seems unwise to lock up anyone for 2B beyond 2019.
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