Some of you may have read my original post musing on the MVP award. To summarize I will offer the principles I posted there, if you want further explanations read the original post.
- I always approach the award with preferential bias.
- I don't use WAR value when determining MVP.
- MVP ought to favor players who play for contenders, but could still be won by players who play for non-contenders.
- The value of a player on a contender is also weighed against the value of other players on that contender.
- The MVP is best for a full season of work. A quick note here, I initially said this made me feel Trout ought not be an MVP, but his continued performance caused me to change my mind as I mentioned in a recent mailbag.
- Voters should not hold grudges against players. This was mainly in reference to Ryan Braun, and is relevant here only slightly in Cabrera's that if some would withhold voting for Cabrera because of past offseason indiscretions. But since that was a couple years ago now, and not in relation to PEDs (where BWAA has been on its run of vigilante justice) I doubt this point has much bearing on the AL MVP (but it certainly will on NL MVP).
- Traditional stats (such as triple crown stats) matter.
- MVP is best when not shared with awards like Cy Young or Rookie of the Year.
Now let me give a quick case for each player and then say something in relation to these musings.
Mike Trout has made me a believer that he is MVP worthy. Perhaps the best case being that Albert Pujols is not the star player of the Angels, even though he is one of the best hitters in the history of the Game. I mean that kinda noise is like DiMaggio joining the Yankees and overshadowing Babe Ruth. The guy is the truest package of 5-tool talent and makes me think of Griffey Jr when you think of the that kinda outfielder with talent, star power, and production. He is the youngest 30/40 player in baseball history, the first player to hit 30hrs, 45sb, and 125runs in a season. He's also the first player to reach the .320 ave, 30hr, 45sb combo in a season. He was one stolen base away from being I believe the 1st 30/50 player.
His numbers were as follows: .326/.399/.564 (.963 OPS) 27 doubles, 8 triples, 30 home runs (totaling 65 extra base hits), 129 runs, 182 hits, 67 BB (to 139 k's), 49 stolen bases in 139 games. He led the league in SB and runs scored. All this playing a premium athletic position and his first year in the majors. The Angels failed to make the playoffs, but were in contention until the end of September but ultimately finished 3rd in the AL West with 89 wins.
Miguel Cabrera is an underrated star. I say underrated not because he is not thought of as a star but because he's not thought of often as a future Hall of Famer, but with a career .318/.395/.561 slash, the year in impact he has on his teams, a World Series ring, over 300 home runs in 9 1/2 seasons, and over 1800 career hits, meaning 3000 is not out of the question, Cabrera is an offensive monster. Besides Albert Pujols, I'm not sure there has been a more consistently amazing hitter this decade. Perhaps most impressive is he is of the likes of Pujols and Braun in that he has never had a bad season. All that, and this was his best year! This year, he missed his career best batting average by 14 points, this was also his second highest slugging percentage, and his OBP was only his 5th best. But he put up career bests in home runs, extra base hits, runs batted in, hits, and total bases. But more impressive to how he stacked up against his career numbers, and how across the board they were good and if not career highs, definitely among his better career numbers, what was more impressive than this was how these numbers stacked against the rest of baseball. In fact, he became the first player to win the triple crown since 1967! One of the hardest and rarest offensive feats he pulled off. Here is the breakdown of his year:
Cabrera hit .330/.393/.606 (.999 OPS) with 40 Doubles, 0 Triples, 44 Home runs (totaling 88 extra base hits), 109 runs, 205 hits, 66 walks (to 98 k's), and 4 stolen bases in 161 games. He led the league in average, home runs, runs batted in (Triple crown categories), as well as slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. He played most of the season at 3B (a few at DH or 1B), but his defense is not good. His team won 88 games, and in the final month beat out the fading White Sox for the American League Central Division crown. While not a part of MVP consideration, his team has advanced to the American League Championship Series and still has a chance at making the World Series.
Here's the quick picture: Cabrera is the essence of the classic league MVP. He has dominated the traditional stats in a way that has not been done for some time. His full season and great performance has greatly outperformed Trout. Trout in his first year put up historic numbers, and is the complete package including massive speed and incredible defense. While Cabrera's Tigers did make the playoffs, Trout's Angels actually won more games, and certainly were contenders, but could not win in their far more difficult division.
Here is where I stand in relation to the principles set forth in my previous MVP blog:
1. My bias is not as much into play here in terms of who I prefer. Living in Minnesota I have not been high on the Tigers, so I may be somewhat biased against Cabrera. But I've always found him such a great player, and when you look at my bias in terms of stats and stuff, many of those lean in favor of Cabrera. So I think it evens out a lot in spite of my opposition to the Tigers. No favorite.
2. Since WAR values Trouts numbers, obviously this hurts him. His defense is excellent and and production from there is more 'valuable' by WAR standards. Although b-r oWar even values Trout's production over Cabrera's. So this really does not bode well for him. But I'm sorry, Cabrera in my view shows to be a better offensive player. He may not have the running game, but his other numbers in addition to the superior runs scored/batted in outcome makes me think that's a good reason why I don't consider WAR in these things. But even if you disagree, and you'd have many on your side (such as folks from the staff of MLBtraderumors.com who have been advocating Trout mainly in their weekly chats) it doesn't matter, because it has none here. Since WAR then cannot benefit Trout, this favors Cabrera.
3. Both players really played for a contender, and as I mentioned the Angels though they failed to make the playoffs did win more games than the Tigers. Had they been in the same division, the Angels would be favored. So there is no big distinction here. It is not like the Braun-Kemp race last year. However, not only because the Tigers made the playoffs, but turned up the heat when it counted and etched past the White Sox in the final month of play I will say this slightly favors Cabrera.
4. Both teams featured excellent offense and pitching. The Angels even added top of the rotation arm in Greinke mid-season and the Tigers had last year's Cy Young/MVP Justin Verlander. Both teams had another star power player (Fielder and Pujols), they both had several good hitters in average. Aside from Fielder, Cabrera's power stands out in the lineup (no other player had more than 18 HR) while Trout did have more sluggers (in addition to Pujols, Trumbo slugged 32 HR, and Morales had 22 HR). Also aside from Fielder, no one on the Tigers had more than 74 RBI. 3 of Trout's teammates had more RBI's than him. However Trout stood out as the runner, with only one other player with 80 runs scored and one other with 20 SB's (still 29 less than him). The Tigers had two other players with 80+ runs, no one on the team were real base stealers. We should here consider also Trout's role on this team, because he was not the main guy for driving in runs, we should not hold it against him that others did that better. The truth is both players excelled in the area a player of their role were supposed to, and Trout also exhibited numbers of a traditional run producer. In that respect, while Cabrera really stood out on his team, Trout really did in relation to his role. And as I said in my previous blog, to not only be necessary to the team, but shine on it is key. That makes this instance favor Trout.
5. Trout overcame my bias of partial season production to even make this blog possible. Bottom line is while he started a month late, he put up numbers few players do in an entire year. However, they are standing up against Cabrera's full year. And it hurts him, mainly because it allowed Cabrera to have some superior numbers, and ultimately win the triple crown. I'm excited like many to see what Trout's numbers will look like next year with a full season of maturity and a full season of AB's under his belt. We may not have to wait 45 years for another triple crown winner. And on top of it, he could also lead the league in stolen bases, a quadruple crown winner! But that is the amazing expectation for next year, and had the Angels started the year with him, they may have been in the playoffs, and this blog may never be happening. But that wasn't the case, and his inability to play a full year while not removing him from the MVP race certainly has favored Cabrera's chances.
6. I talked about how little this will affect anything. But if it does, the hype that has followed Trout for over a year coupled with his unbelievable arrival, along with Cabrera's past means BWAA grudges/favors will easily favor Trout.
7. This is really what the award comes down to. If you think the traditional stats matter, then you really have to vote for Cabrera. He has dominated the traditional stats in a way that has not happened in 45 years. That cannot be overlooked. The rarity of that achievement speaks for itself. Although as noted Trout has made some achievements in certain stats like no one his age or no one before, those combinations have never been as traditionally valuable as the triple crown combo. Therefore, while Trout has had his own historic season in the stat department, the good old stats still favor Cabrera.
8. Not wanting someone to share MVP with something like Rookie of the Year is my own bias. And when a player is that good they are that good. After all, if the MVP is a rookie of course he is going to be Rookie of the Year. But here is a case where he is not over and above that much greater than anyone else, that he needs to be MVP. I just like seeing the awards divied up, Trout will still get Rookie of the Year award and MVP love on the ballot, I just don't see how his campaign is great enough to overcome this bias, which favors Cabrera.
Decision: Trout has had an amazing year, and I do think that had he played that first month my biases could not stop me from favoring him all the way, especially because it might have gotten in the way of Cabrera's triple crown. But that is not the case. While Trout's numbers are historic and deserve this to be a close race, it's obvious to me who the MVP is. His team is in the playoffs, he's been an offensive star for a decade, and he just ended the triple crown drought. Trout has done an amazing job to look like a slugger when he is a runner and run scorer, making him an allround run producer and his defense makes him a run stopper. But Cabrera owned the league in run producing, and I don't think we can hold defense as much against him as some do. While he has never been a great defender, his woes at 3B this year are hardly his fault. His team signed another first baseman, and decided to move Cabrera to 3B, somewhere he has not played regularly for some time because he really isn't a 3B anymore. He made the switch, and then still produced offensively.
Ultimately I guess I cannot imagine someone winning the triple crown and not winning the MVP, especially when the next best candidate has not even played a full season and way behind in some important stats like HR and RBI. And on top of it all, one team is in the playoffs, one is not. Cabrera has surprisingly for his consistent star power play never won an MVP. It would be a travesty if he took a team to the playoffs while winning a triple crown and still could not get one on his shelf. Therefore I'm willing to say the 2012 American League MVP is Miguel Cabrera. Let Trout win it next year, since he likely will.
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