Offseason Baseball - Brewers (1st crack)

With the World Series starting (thankfully without the Cardinals), we are at most 7 games away from baseball's offseason. The truth is I sometimes like the offseason more than the season, because there is no room for actual performance here, only past success or future potential, all the while balancing the team checkbook.

I thought I would get a head start on my lay-GM thoughts for Milwaukee's offseason plan. You will notice I call it a '1st Crack' as I will almost certainly have another one if not more as the offseason develops and we know more about the market, the Brewer's available money, players on the trading block, etc. 

According to Cots, Milwaukee has $52.433 million committed to Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, Jonathan Lucroy, Corey Hart, and Norichika Aoki in 2013. That also includes 1.5 million dollar buyout owed to Randy Wolf. That's a little more than half of the total 2012 payroll (about $98mil). However, all expectations are that the payroll for 2013 will decrease. We don't know by how much but based on past years I will guess there should be room of about $30 mil for the other 18 players. 

I expect the following arbitration eligible players will be tendered contracts: Manny Parra, John Axford, Marco Estrada, and Carlos Gomez. MLBtraderumors predicts 11.7 mil for those players. However I disagree with them that Axford will manage 5.1 mil in arbitration. They make the case that he has collected stats that arbitration favors, perhaps true. But he also suffered a lot of blown saves, lost his closer job for a while, and in general regressed this season, and his ERA which arby also favors is aweful. But it will likely be a lot, so let's say he costs $4.1 mil. That will be $10.7 mil for these guys. Putting payroll at about $63 mil, with about $19 mil remaining for 14 players.

A few other players that earned spots on this team include Michael Fiers, Jim Henderson, Martin Maldonado, Mark Rogers, Jean Segura, and Wily Peralta. In addition to those who ought to be on, I think the team should also have Gamel, Kintzler, and Schafer on the roster. If we put all these at about 500k salaries that adds 4.5 mil giving a payroll of approx $67.5 mil which leaves $14.5 mil for 5 players. 

The offseason plan will then require 2 bats for the bench (at least one being able to play the infield) 2 arms for the bullpen (at least one with late inning experience/success), and a solid veteran addition to the rotation. Because we do not know who is available via trade and Milwaukee is in the process of restocking their system, I don't think we should plan on those being filled via trade. It also means I'm not putting much stock in the rumors that Milwaukee will be a suitor for Josh Hamilton. 

Milwaukee will also not be targeting the top Free Agents Starters. 14.5 mil will not be enough for Greinke, and likely would be maxed out on players like Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, or Edwin Jackson not leaving money for the other four spots. Also, all of those pitchers will require multi-year contracts. Milwaukee's other pitchers are all controllable and cheaper. Additionally, the team has a small handful of other arms with real potential in the upper minors who should be MLB ready soon. At the same time the team should leave money coming off of the books next year to allow for all the payroll increases. On top of all of that the last two long term FA pitchers (Suppan and Wolf) had to be released in their final year due to under-performance. Therefore I think the team should be targeting either bounce-back candidates or older players who are on a year-to-year basis at this point in their career. Such players the team will have less competition for (hopefully), and therefore a better chance at signing them.

Keep in mind then that the players we look for are not the most elite, but rather are more risky, and a little outside the box. They still have some ability to get the job done well however. Assuming that the Angels will decline their expensive option to Ervin Santana, a one year deal to him would be wise. He is young enough he could still net a multi-year deal, but given his 2012 I doubt he will get one. He seems a prime candidate for a one year deal to try to reestablish his value before getting too old. 7 mil should do it. But if that won't do it, or he has other pursuers, plan B (to keep it simple we'll say at the same cost) will be Bartolo Colon. Plan C as Jeremy Guthrie. This will leave 7.5 mil for 4 players. Any of these would be a solid addition. They all have a lot of major league experience and have put up some solid numbers. Colon has really had a resurgence. The concern might be he tested positive for testosterone and was suspended at the end of this year (he missed 40 regular season games and 5 postseason games so he will still have to miss the first 5 regular season games of 2013), but I still expect him to be a solid addition, especially since he has been in the AL the last two years. Guthrie had the great challenge of being the ace of the Orioles for years, when he is not an ace and Baltimore was not a good team. That said, even in that role, in that division, he put up some solid ERA's and limited walks, and provided innings. He was just awful for the Rockies in 2012, but put up his best numbers in the second half when he joined the Royals (who will likely be the primary competition for him). A move to the NL that does not include half your games at Coors Field should be good for him.

I should say that I would not be all too upset if Milwaukee chose to retain Marcum as he has shown his ability to succeed here, and with our system brewing so many young pitchers I am not altogether worried about his late season durability. The bigger issue will be cost and years. I would not really want him for more than two, and the thin market may price him too high (we'll see). Another name I would love as an addition but I think Milwaukee will have too much competition for is Brandon McCarthy. 7 mil may be a good enough amount of money, but he may be seeking multiple years and will surely have suitors from larger markets that will by nature be more attractive. So while he is financially realistic, I think Milwaukee will not be able to land him.

For the pen, I think Juan Cruz would be a great pickup. He has shown a history of success in the pen (especially in the NL), and the ability to get strikeouts. Basically he will replace Jose Veras, but I expect him to be cheaper and have fewer walks. The real question is how many appearances he can/will make. Having not reached 50 innings for a couple seasons, added to getting older, that would be the main concern with him. But because of that and the way non-elite free agent relievers can usually be had cheap, I imagine Doug Melvin could sign him for $1 mil. In addition I would target Koji Uehara with a two year deal, maybe $2.5 mil a year. I'm not sure that will be enough, but it might given his age and the multi-year offer. You don't want to overpay for your pen or over commit, Luis Ayala would be another good option that would be cheap enough to have for $2.5 mil. Either way the combination of two of Uehara/Cruz/Ayala I imagine could be had for $3.5 mil. That leaves $4 million for 2 players.

Those last two spots should go to Ryan Theriot and Jonny Gomes. Here are two veterans who bring strong back up bats. They also have not commanded large contracts. Last season they combined for $2.25 mil, so it is also reasonable to believe they could be had for $4 mil. They both are not good enough defensively to generally be considered favorites/starters, but both have the bats which Milwaukee's bench could use. Schafer and Maldonado already provide the team with some defensive minded players on the bench. Along with being solid backups/bats off the bench, we should also remember that the Astro's move to the AL will change the dynamic of interleague play, meaning the DH will not simply be a few weeks in the end of the first half of the season thing anymore. Gamel/Gomes will provide a good DH platoon for whenever the Crew is playing at an American League park. Word is Oakland will try to resign Gomes however, so if Melvin could not get him, Andrew Jones would be a good alternative as he similarly brings power (especially against left handers).

The good news is Milwaukee will return with the same line-up that had one of if not the best offense in the National League last season (depending how you rank offenses). They will also let some of the young arms that stepped in mid-season show what they can do with a full season of work. Most interesting will be to see if Fiers had a lucky start or just wore out at the end. The team will be taking a bit of a risk with the new starter addition, however, it could either work out really well, or the team turns to some other young arms, such as Rogers, who will be the swing man - which would probably be good given his fragile arm rather than rely on him to give us 150-200 innings - instead limit him to long relief and spot starting. The bullpen could not be worse than last year. And the additions should provide a solid improvement to go along with hopefully some pitchers getting back on track - especially Axford. Also, the bench will have a good offensive/defensive, veteran/young balance to it. And at $82.5 million, if the team were in contention they would have payroll flexibility for more midseason help.

Could they be had on minor league deals, Travis Ishikawa, Chris Narveson, Kameron Loe, or Jose Veras would be worth retaining for depth purposes. Other players who might be available for minor league deals and good pickups for team depth would be: Ronny Cedeno, Rich Harden, Brian Fuentes, and Francisco Cordero. The market will likely depend on if any of the above players would be available for a minor league deal, but if they are around come January that often is what happens. And it would be a worthwhile thing to do, even if it required split contracts (contracts that guaranteed more money than league minimum if they make the MLB roster - usually in the 800k-2 mil range). They could join guys like Farris, Bianchi and Thornburg in the minors.

But not counting on those minor league deals, here is the proposed roster:

Lineup

1-Aoki (RF)

2-Gomez (CF)

3-Braun (LF)

4-Ramirez (3B)

5-Hart (1B)

6-Weeks (2B)
*7-Gamel/Gomes (DH - AL Games only)

7/8-Lucroy (C)

8/9-Segura (SS)

*9-Pitcher (NL Games only)

Bench

Gamel (1B/RF/DH)

Schafer (LF/CF/RF)

Theriot (2B, 3B, SS)

Maldonado (C)

Gomes/Jones (LF/RF/DH)

Rotation

1-Gallardo

2-Santana/Colon/Guthrie

3-Peralta

4-Fiers

5-Estrada

6/LR-Rogers

MR-Kintzler

MR-Cruz

LOOGY-Parra

7th-Henderson

8th-Uehara/Ayala

9th-Axford

I know some fantasy GM's out there will not like this, but I'm trying to be realistic too, considering that Milwaukee has had trouble attracting top free agents with out well over paying, and that is not what Milwaukee should be focused on doing right now. We'll have to wait and see for what Doug Melvin has in store.

The real concern is the pitching. This roster really is counting on Axford to be the closer, Uehara has closing experience which is why he would be the preferable addition to the team as a back-up. Henderson had a little experience last year and Kintzler was a closer in the minors (but really does not have the stuff for MLB closing). Also it is not just hoping the FA pitcher works out, I'm more worried about how guys like Fiers and Estrada will show themselves in a full season. Hopefully they will continue their success or Rogers will be able to step in.

But I'm ready for some offseason baseball. Hopefully it will be a good World Series, ending 2012 season with a bang (or a crack of the bat) so we can look to the 2013 season with great expectations...

Don't forget to feed the fish. Thanks for reading.