This is a big year for Milwaukee. Because of the early struggles of other teams this was a year to take the division and reach the playoffs which is essential since anything can happen in the playoffs. But major offensive slides along with a wasted bullpen is causing a meltdown. I hope they can pick it up, because this team can be streaky and if they turn it on soon, they could still be playoff bound.
Either way, as the season begins to come to a close and as the August trade deadline passes essentially locking in the team that Milwaukee will be working with this offseason I began to ask what is the best course of action this offseason and several scenarios played out in my head. Let me share the most drastic one: blow up the team and rebuild.
My thinking is this: the Brewers probably have maybe one more good season left of a real playoff chance. And if the team does well this month, and makes it to the NLCS (or at least deep in the NLDS) they may be better off going for it in 2015 and following a different path. But assuming their struggles cost them the playoffs or they get quickly eliminated in either a wild card game or a short division series (think 2008 Brewers-Phillies series) they should probably instead build for the future. After all, if they cannot do it this year it will be much tougher next year when: Ryan Braun and Kyle Lohse is another year older, you aren't likely to repeat your excellent start to the season, Gallardo loses more velocity, the Reds are healthy, the Cardinals might not be as bad out of the gate, the Pirates get full seasons from guys like Cole and Polanco. But the main reason is this: the Cubs are coming. The Cubs are a winning team in baseball's second half, and early showings of guys like Soler means this team has some young talent ready to produce. Add to that strong pitching by guys like Arrieta and Hendricks, more improvement by Baez, and likely adding pitching via free agency (I think one of Lester, Shields, or Scherzer ends up in Chicago) and possibly via trade given Alcantara/Baez/Castro/Russell seems an unnecessary amount of depth for 2B/SS and while Alcantara may go to OF, that still lets them move one (since 3B will almost certainly be occupied by Bryant next season) for a young, controllable pitcher.
Now there is a case that Pittsburgh and Cincinnati may be worse next year with the Reds possibly trading Latos or Cueto in order to retain the other one via extension and the Pirates are losing Liriano, Volquez, and Martin in free agency likely only able to retain one if any of the three. But they still have a young core and more on the way. The loss of Martin I think is the only one that will truly hurt.
But looking at how tough it will be to win next year (look how tough it's been even with our phenomenal 20-7 start) it is asking a lot for Milwaukee to go for it next year if they fail to succeed this year when the division was theirs for the season. Add to that several key players will be gone after next season and the team starts to look further and further from being a contender each year. Since at least 3 teams (Chicago, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh) have enough controllable talent to be a contender for the next couple years the time to do some rebuilding is now. Here is what I would do:
- Exercise the Brewer's end of the mutual option on Ramirez. If he rejects it (which I think he will), extend him a qualifying offer. If he accepts the QO or the option, trade him. If not, you get a draft pick for him. With Ramirez having a strong season, he will be a desired free agent. While age and injury concerns will limit him from a long term deal, the limited market for solid hitters along with his track record and strong 2014 will net interest for him. And even if they got "stuck" with him and couldn't get a solid return, keeping him (or dealing him at the deadline) wouldn't be bad for the team. Whether on the roster or on another roster in return for prospects/draft pick Ramirez is worth the Brewers pursuit.
- Trade Gallardo (whose option they pick up), Lohse, and Estrada. Now they may want to just keep Estrada since he won't cost much, is a good bounce-back candidate, and they will be creating holes in the rotation trading their 1-2 starters. But Estrada as a controllable, still reasonably affordable pitcher has value to teams that severely lack in pitching depth and have concerns about cost (like Angels, Yankees, and Astros) or teams with spacious ballparks (like Royals and Padres) since his outrageous homerun rate was his downfall this year. That may depend more on what his value is as a bounce-back candidate. Gallardo and Lohse are having strong years and will have one year of control at an affordable rate. While neither is an ace, both are solid mid-rotation additions for teams and certainly seem tradeable. Obviously again the market may be decidedly different and you have to hold onto them (Gallardo especially is worth holding onto for the right deal since he would be a realistic option for a QO in the 2016 offseason, so if you aren't offered anything reasonable just take the draft pick). Lohse on the other hand may be worth less (although would be a solid mid-season trade candidate too if need be, but should not be retained until his contract expires since he is not a good option to extend a QO to).
- Trade Carlos Gomez. This would be the most controversial move but the wisest for rebuilding since Gomez is an elite CF with 2 years remaining on a bargain contract. Dealing him will net true talent. While many would argue that the extension Milwaukee got him to sign was so good trading him is ridiculous or you may not get fair value return, the bottom line is if the rest of the division is too good during his tenure his value is not enough to merit not trading him. And after another good year, an all-star appearance, and multiple years of control remaining this will be his peak value.
- Trade Jonathan Broxton. This almost certainly would not be worth doing until the deadline. But when relievers are needed and he only has half a year of salary remaining, then he is a perfect deadline trade candidate. I don't expect he'd net much in the offseason given his cost and the availability of what would probably be just about every other reliever in baseball.
- Explore trading Jonathan Lucroy. With three years of control remaining at such a good cost this is not a must do move. But the Brewers have a slugging C in Coulter in the lower minors on the way (although some wonder if he will stay at catcher) and Lucroy is a serious MVP candidate this year. He really would also net a king's ransom given his position and mix of defense, offense, and a great contract. The team should explore the possibility of trading him, but not feel the need to.
These are the key moves that will begin to restock the system. I noticeably did not mention trading Braun mainly because I don't think he is that tradeable given his contract, power issues, injury issues, and post-PED PR. What he needs to do is probably have surgery on his thumb in hopes his power comes back. A little more power returning along with a return in plate discipline from this year's drop would go a long way in restoring his value (at which point the Brewers need to determine whether it is better to trade him or retain him career). I also did not include Matt Garza since he is controllable for so long still and with his injury and early season struggles is not at peak value. He may contribute to a future contender or at least be more tradeable in a year or two. Gerardo Parra would also be a possible deadline trade candidate. But would likely have too little value this offseason to deal (and if the team deals Gomez, he would be a good CF option to replace him). I am assuming he will be tendered a contract in 2015.
Then Milwaukee should follow the Cub's recent offseason patterns: pursue young, international free agents (24 year old Cuban Yasmani Tomas is an example) as well as 1-year bounceback players who make trade deadline fodder (someone like Chad Billingsly or Corey Hart).
The team is not totally torn apart. You still have young pitchers like Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson in the rotation and Will Smith and Tyler Thornburg in the pen, you still have young players like Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett, and Jean Segura to build around. And Braun likely is not going anywhere. Several of these players may be worth also extending if possible (that ship has sailed on Segura and Thornburg is hard to pin down since it is still unclear if he is destined for the bullpen or rotation in the end). Another interesting arm to consider will be Mike Fiers. He is hard to determine because he has had excellent numbers in the minors, two strong MLB showings (2012 and 2014) with a very bad 2013 in between to go along with underwhelming stuff (particularly in the fastball department) and no real prospect status. With the rebuilding he would make sense as a rotation candidate in 2015. A strong showing would make him a wise trade candidate thereafter. If he more likely falls somewhere between his excellent 2014 and poor 2013 he will instead be just a rotation filler until more worthy arms show up, since without prolonged success he just won't have enough value on the market.
If they really wanted to restock the system they could explore dealing Peralta who has established himself enough to be worth a quality return. But with his age and controllability I have a hard time imagining a return worth doing that and I would rather pursue an extension first.
The idea of all this is that Milwaukee aim at contention in 2017. That is enough years away to build up a strong core while still within the frame of several of their solid controllable players now. There is still enough young talent that a rebuild of this fashion would not likely lead to horrendous 100-loss campaigns like that of the early 2000s, but 85-95 loss seasons are likely in the interim.
Some may not like it. And like I say, a case can be made to go for it in 2015. But once guys like Gallardo, Lohse, and Ramirez are gone what will this team's chances be? They have some ok replacements in the pipeline (at least in the rotation) but not enough to compete with the increasingly tough NL Central. So it seems to me the option is blow up one year early to get more returns on some of the pieces or go for it in 2015 at risk of being in a worse position when the dust settles. A case could be made for the 2015 deadline being more important, but there is more resistance towards trading prospects for 2-month rentals it seems these days, and Doug Melvin seems better historically in netting offseason returns over deadline returns.
So unless the Brewers convince me otherwise this month and into the playoffs, I think they are better poised to get a head start on rebooting this team. What do you think?
