Not much needs to be said by way of introduction, and much does by way of prediction so let me jump right on in. Maybe the only thing worth noting was that the hardest thing for working in this season's predictions are determining if hitters who took a step forward or pitchers who took a step back are legit trends since last season saw a league wide power surge, the likes of which was so great only one season in MLB history saw more home runs. Was that an aberration or a sign of things to come?
NL EAST
1. Nationals. It seems every year they are the best team on paper in the division and sometimes in the league. I expect the same again. I like the recent Wieters signing, because even if he isn't the player he used to be he's still better than what they had. Eaton really isn't a 6 WAR guy (and moving back to CF he likely won't rank as one this year), but he's such a solid player who does everything right that he quietly helps out. That bullpen is also better than it's given credit for. And if Harper rebounds (last season was a down year!) and Turner builds off his rookie platform watch out. They also have a legit playoff rotation (assuming they stay healthy).
2. Mets. So much rides on the health of the rotation. I think they are gonna really miss Colon's steady IP, but last year they were tough even with guys like Harvey having a horrible start. I think they are really counting on a lot from guys like Granderson, Bruce, Duda, and Walker to support Cespedes on offense. But really it comes to that rotation. Healthy they are better than any in baseball, even the likes of the Cubs and Red Sox. But that's a big if. A lot may be asked this year of prospects like Rosario, Gsellman, and Smith.
3. Marlins. It starts getting trickier here. I originally had ATL in this spot, because while I like the approach the Marlins took to their offseason - adding some quality even if unspectacular rotation arms and deepening the pen big time to shorten their game - there is still such a hole without Fernandez. That said, in many ways this team is quite similar to the Orioles who have managed to compete with a middling rotation, deep bullpen, and strong offense. This offense is not as strong and particularly struggled last season in the most important category (scoring runs, 3rd worst in the NL, good news is the guys worse than them are the two teams listed lower than them in the division), but especially with Dee Gordon back all season and if Stanton could ever have a full season this team would still be potent enough. They also don't seem as quick to sell key contributors if they are lagging at the deadline, which is ultimately why I chose to favor them over ATL.
4. Braves. Speaking of offseason plans I liked, the Braves added a great arm to the system in Gohara, and I loved the short-term solid veteran additions to the rotation. Not only does this team, which had a really strong finish in 2016 (20-10 over last 30 games) come back with the stronger roster they ended the year with, but also now with one of their biggest weaknesses plugged (rotation, which outside of Julio Teheran combined for a 5.32 ERA last year). They aren't elite enough to probably contend, but they may be closer than people think, especially since aside from maybe Matt Kemp I don't see a lot of regression in line. Dickey will I think improve moving out of the AL East, and Colon will be great until his arm falls off. I mean...the guy literally outlasted Atlanta's previous ballpark (as the two debuted in MLB on the same date). Philips could regress too, but if he does he is easily replaceable midseason by Pederson or eventually Albies. And any number of their many pitching prospects might take a major step forward. A full season of Encarte and Swanson will help too. Like I said, this team is closer than we think. The only reason I put them 4th is I think barring a really strong 1st half 1-3 of Garcia, Dickey, and Colon could be traded.
5. Phillies. Another team that is getting better. They have a rotation that has a high ceiling, but both health and consistency concerns. The back end of the bullpen is not as certain as I would expect it to be too. I really did not like the Saunders signing. He could be great, but both his second half crash and his health history suggest to me more likely than not he's going to be ordinary to subpar. Mikael Franco is a name people might be learning quick though, and a potential break-out candidate (if you don't think he has actually broken out already). They had the worst run differential in the majors last year, Tommy Joseph can't possibly be as good as he was last year (21 HR in 315 AB), right?
NL CENTRAL
1. Cubs. They are the best in baseball. It was one of those rare moments where probably the consensus best team in season play was also the best team in postseason when the dust settled. And while my first ever blog post is about how I deeply hoped this day would not come, the curse is over. Well, curses may last a lifetime in baseball lore, but magic has a shelf life. Now they gotta stay at the top of their game. Which they can. Their .343 team OBP blew away the rest of the NL, as did their team ERA of 3.15. Really health is the only thing I see as coming in the way of another division crown and deep playoff run. Last season their rotation was crazy durable. That is not something to count on. But their offense is strong enough (and should be stronger with Schwarber all year) to carry them even if someone goes down. Not to mention Jason Heyward is probably a lot better than what we saw last year. Watch out.
2. Pirates. I go back and forth on the next two. But the Pirates are way better than they were last year and the Reyes injury really hurt STL. I really thought these guys shoulda gotten Quintana this offseason though. The only guy I would have considered off limits would be Meadows, since he is the heir apparent to the inevitable exit of McCutchen. Quintana would have given them an elite rotation, and he was locked in at a price they could afford. That said, I don't blame them for opting instead to see what they can do with what they got. I mean, Glasnow may be ready by midseason to be a legit upper rotation arm anyways. My biggest concern is Taillon and Cole staying healthy. So long as they are, they are studs. I also think McCutchen is gonna come rearing back this year big time. He isn't finished, and he has a chip on his shoulder. Josh Bell is a ROY candidate if he comes back from injury ok, and they have some strong back-ups in the likes of Jaso, Freese, and sup-sub Harrison.
3. Cardinals. The Pirates are probably a better team, but the Cards are the best run organization in baseball and somehow always manage to be tougher than they should be. It is just so hard to count them out. Another key injury though and that may change. They also lost a lot of power in players leaving via free agency. Still, they did add Fowler, which makes the top of their lineup that much tougher in OBP. And this team is the epitome of the concept that the sum is greater than the individual parts. No franchise is better at making the pieces fit together right. SF is close, but if I were a GM, this is the team I'd want to emulate.
4. Reds. They are a really weird team to assess. They have some really talented players that makes them better than you'd think, or at least they should be better than they are. Home runs killed this pitching staff last year, and in that ballpark it is hard to imagine it will totally go the other way for them. That said, I do think some level of league wide regression is coming which should bode well for this team. Now that Philips is gone though, and Votto doesn't seem to want to be dealt, I don't see any major selling at the deadline, maybe Drew Storen or some other arms. Cozart, if they can find a taker this year. That's why they are ahead of MIL.
5. Brewers. It is hard to put them here because for a rebuilding team there is a lot to like in Milwaukee this season. That said, they are in the toughest division in the National League, which means lots of games against tough teams. Additionally, they could easily swing a midseason trade of more bullpen arms and if any of Garza, Peralta, or Guerra perform well out of the rotation I envision them being dealt. Braun also may be dealt if he performs well again, although I'm starting to think he will be with the team until next offseason now. It begs the question of what are they going to do if guys like Brinson are knocking at the door early, because if this spring and last year's finishes are any indication, Broxton and Santana are both legit candidates for a big season. This year will also probably determine if Jimmy Nelson is a starter or reliever going forward. That will largely depend on which half of the season he pitches like. Through his first 11 starts he had a 2.88 ERA, and by July 31 it was still a solid 3.42, but his Aug and Sep ERAs were 9.00 and 5.53 to balloon his overall numbers to 4.62. Villar will probably regress quite a bit but still is a threat for 15 HR and 35+SB. Hernan Perez showed himself to probably be the best utility guy in baseball after Baez in Chicago and Rodriguez (last year with PIT). And if the projection systems are right, Thames is gonna be a steal. The real question is if he's learned to lay off the breaking ball. And his back-up/platoon mate Aguilar (who led the minors in homers last year) has led all baseball in OPS this spring. Basically, this team is actually got some talent, but some of it is likely to be dealt at the deadline.
NL WEST
1. Dodgers. This division I think is gonna be tough this year, but LA should prevail. They have the best pitcher of our generation in Kershaw, and have taken a very interesting path of signing tons of injury risk, high reward pitchers. You have to think that Hill, Kazmir, and Ryu could combine for a season's worth of solid to great pitching. Add in Maeda who really surprised me last year in how good he was (now he just needs to go deeper into games) and Urias who looked strong in his debut and this rotation makes them the team to beat. Add in their solid line-up, strong defense, and great MiLB depth and they are a complete team and the ones I think are ready to go real deep again in the postseason. The biggest flaw they had last year was hitting against LHP, which they at least improved upon by adding Forsythe, although in the end I think they will regret they didn't pony up for Dozier. They need Kershaw healthy though. Ryu is looking like an early favorite for comeback players of the year.
2. Diamondbacks. Here's where I'm getting bold. But I think we are gonna see some real turnaround in the NL West. A year ago the Diamondbacks were being picked by tons to contend after their offseason. A bit of a disaster year on the pitching front and that changed. But here's the thing, even if Miller and Greinke are not as good as they were in 2015, they are way better pitchers than we saw in 2016 (although Greinke's spring has been concerning). Throw in Taijuan Walker and this rotation could be a sleeping giant, which is what I'm predicting. Paul Goldschmidt is I think the most complete 1B in the game today and even if Jake Lamb is due for some regression, they went most of the year without AJ Pollock and David Peralta. This team was the toughest in MLB on lefties (.820 OPS in 2016) which is good considering some of the toughest pitchers in the division are southpaws. My biggest concern is the bullpen, starting with Fernando Rodney who rotates between being the most unhittable closer in baseball and a home-run derby pitcher. That said, the pen is the easiest thing to fix. The most important thing for them will be health, because their thin system won't offer much by way of reinforcements.
3. Rockies. I went back and forth on COL and ARZ but I think the early injuries hurt the Rockies. I also think it more likely Arizona's rotation takes a step forward than Colorado's. But this team is very complete and ready to compete. While I was not a fan of the Ian Desmond to 1B plan, it has grown on me some. Mainly the idea that adding Desmond there makes it easy to move him if an injury occurs elsewhere (of course he's the one injured right now). I think he was signed for versatility, and the roster will sort out where he ends up playing and that was why they did not just work to clear an OF spot for him. And while the sample size is limited, he's been a beast at Coors in his career (1.016 OPS in 95AB). Story will likely regress, but even if he does, a full season of him would probably be pretty close to what he did in 97 games last year (27 HR, 72RBI). Their OF is tough, and while last year was a disappointment, Gerardo Parra is better than he was and is a great 4th OF because he's a fringe-solid starter should someone go down. They have some interesting rotation options, Gray may finally be the ace they were looking for, and I am predicting another step forward for him this year, something to the tune of 175IP, 200k, 3.85 ERA. There are some other interesting arms in that rotation and system, the next most intriguing being Hoffman. Their biggest flaw last year was bullpen which had an ERA of 5.13. But they worked hard to improve it with the additions of Dunn and Holland, and someone in the Ottavino, Motte, McGee tangent should improve.
4. Giants. I'm predicting a bit of a fall from grace for SF, which may be stupid because like St. Louis they know how to make the parts they have work. They have the pieces in guys like Bumgardner, Cueto, Posey, and Melancon. But overall I am just not impressed. Additionally, like Chris Sale, I'm very concerned that we are going to see the very durable Bumgarder suffer an injury. It seems inevitable that pitchers get injured, and that likelihood increases when you pitch a lot of innings and no manager in baseball asks more of their starting pitchers than Bruce Bochy (3 of the top 5 starters in the NL in IP were Cueto, Bumgardner, and Shark). They have other guys like Samardzia and Pence who both have high ceilings performance-wise, but one is inconsistent and they other hurt too much to count on. I did like the addition of Korean 3B Hwang, who is a sleeper ROY candidate. I wouldn't be surprised if they are higher and contend (every pre-season prediction I've read has guessed that), but I'm saying I won't be surprised if the opposite happens and they are down in the division, though that is not to say they won't be competitive.
5. Padres. Simply put: they stink. They are in a crazier spot pitching wise than even Colorado, the place where pitchers go and die. Jered Weaver is likely to be their opening day starter with his blistering 83mph fastball. They do have Clemens pitching for them...too bad it's young Paul and not daddy Roger who if he came back at 50 (or whatever age he is now) would still probably be their ace. What is more is this team added 3 rule 5 draft picks this year, and I think Preller's plan is to keep them just about no matter what in order to stock the system. I mean, they took Diaz from Milwaukee who never pitched above A ball. Just ask fans from Milwaukee who watched the Brewers do that with Wang a few years back how well that works at the MLB level. But it stocks the system. It also sounds like the team is going to possibly try some outside the box rotation system that may only ask for 3-5 IP from starters and use essentially two pitchers to cover innings 1-7, which makes sense since statistically it is the 3rd time through a line-up that will sink most pitcher's ERA. Offensively they have some ROY candidates in Hedges, Renfroe, and Margot. Wil Myers is paying dividends (which is good since they traded Trea Turner to get him!). They do have a lot of depth at 2B at least. Expect some more trades of the quality, non-rookie, non-Myers pieces, especially from the pen/rotation.
NL WILDCARD
1. Pirates. There are a lot of wild-card worthy teams, and I'm predicting it to be a tight race this year, but at its top I'll go with Pittsburgh, because they have depth and trade chips on their side.
2. Diamondbacks. The opposite is true here. They lack depth, and that is largely because management for so long seemed to lack wisdom (although I actually appreciated their efforts to think outside the box of convention). That said, I think the rotation and line-up if healthy and performing at level can outperform the competition. They kinda remind me of the White Sox the last couple years: they got the core, can the parts that surround them contribute enough (and in this case can the core stay healthy)? Lots of other teams in consideration though like STL, NY, SF, and COL.
NLDS
1. Pirates v Cubs. I think the Pirates are the better equipped team to win the Wild Card play-in game. But unfortunately it will pit them against the juggernauts of baseball, who can hit, pitch, club homers, and draw a following wherever they play. In the end I think Chicago takes this 3-1
2. Nationals v Dodgers. Two really tough teams, and how this goes would be a coin flip and a question of who is healthy. That said, this is the year I think for LA, and I think they will want it more than Washington. But it would be close. LA in 5, 3-2.
NLCS
Dodgers v Cubs. A rematch is in store from last year's Championship Series, and this time I think the scale tips the other way. These teams are so closely matched, but I could see a late big impact trade/prospect/player from injury more likely from LA and giving them the edge in the series. Still figure it would go all the way though before LA takes the series 4-3.
NL MVP
Paul Goldschmidt. He's always worthy, and if his team is a playoff contender he'll be recognized for it. He's likely to get more RBIs with Pollock hitting ahead of him all year. Taking the next step and becoming a 30-30 player (he as 24/32 last year) would also be a good platform to build his candidacy. Two other candidates would be Freddy Freeman (ATL) and Kris Bryant (CHI). My sleeper is Trea Turner (WAS)
NL CY YOUNG
Clayton Kershaw. I think there is a greater gap between Kershaw and his Cy Young competition than there is between Trout and MVP competition in the American League. He's that good. Like last year showed, health is the only thing that can stop him. And the loss of Fernandez removed one of the only pitchers remotely near his level of performance. My two alternatives should he be injured would be John Lester (CHI) and Madison Bumgardner (SF). My sleeper pick here is Rich Hill (LA).
NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
Bud Black. If Colorado can compete, and especially if the pitching looks respectable, how do you not give it to him? Black was a very popular manager in the eyes of the baseball world and well respected. And being new makes it easier to attribute his team's success to him. Torey Lovullo would likely provide steep competition if ARZ contends for similar reasons. Then of course there is Maddon, who is helped not only by his reputation, but by having the best on-field product to work with. As a sleeper, Clint Hurdle (PIT) is another one who could get his team to perform beyond expectations and win it.
NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Dansby Swanson. This is an extremely deep class this year, and that's before we even get into the guys no one expects to compete for ROY. Swanson however had a huge showing in 129 ABs last season. Had he gotten one more AB he would not qualify, instead he enters as the favorite because he brings not only great offensive upside, but also great defense from a key defensive position. Which is why I ultimately chose him over Bell (PIT) who came 2 ABs under the cut-off for ROY candidates and displayed his great on-base ability. It is a super-deep group this year of players who are both talented enough to win it, and likely to get enough AB's. Among pitchers Jeff Hoffman might have the inside track. Hwang (SF) is my sleeper.
NL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
A Diamondback. Between pitchers Miller and Greinke and hitters Pollock and Peralta this team has lots of legit candidates. I think Miller will have the easiest time putting up a season that contrasts dramatically with last season's since everything that could go wrong for him did, so from that group he's my favorite. Other players to consider would be McCutchen (PIT) and Ryu (LA). My outside the box pick is Thames (MIL) who may not get recognized because he never had a strong season, so it's more breakout than comeback, but to go from being out of the majors to a huge contributor might do the trick (a la Casey McGehee).
AL EAST
1. Red Sox. All the buzz is centered on them for good reason. They are a tough team, and they added Chris Sale to their rotation. I mean, Drew Pomeranz who pitched like an ace for a good portion of last year might not make the rotation! Porcello, the 2016 Cy Young winner (even if he probably shouldn't have been) is the #3 starter on this team! Add in Betts who was a monster last year, or the fact that as a team they had a .348 OBP and .810 OPS, both good for best in baseball. This team is tough from top to bottom. But they are gonna miss Big Papi more than they realize, even with their big acquisitions. The big question will be Panda man Pablo Sandoval, who may be too soon to write off, but is on track to being one of the worst free-agent signings in baseball history in relationship to contract and performance. They need Price and Thornburg to shake the injury bug quick. Still, no one in this division is likely able to catch up.
2. Blue Jays. How did this team lead the American League in ERA? They just don't seem that good. I mean, some guys like Sanchez and Osuna are, but as a team? Expect some regression there. They also lost out on Encarnacion. That said, bringing back Bautista was huge. In what was his worst year since breaking out he still had solid power and OBP. Morales is probably gonna really swing it there (at least for his first year), and Pearce is versitile and powerful enough to be a strong 10th man to find AB's for. He probably is still a couple years away, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may be the best prospect in terms of ceiling in all of baseball. He only played rookie ball and is only 18, so I doubt he would move quick enough to make the team in Sept, but if he does watch out. If Melvin Upton can hit like he did for SD and if Tulowitzki could look a little more like he did in COL they would be much better off.
3. Yankees. They surprised everyone with their playoff push late. But part of that was due to an unsustainable performance by Gary Sanchez, who has everyone excited. Additionally, Bird comes back from injury to claim first which he was expected to do before the injury after a huge debut in 2015, and if his spring is any indication, that is exactly what he's going to do. I really liked the additions of Holliday and Carter, who can DH (where they both would best be served) but each provide depth where this team needs it most: OF (where Judge may need more seasoning in the minors) and 1B (where Bird might not come back strong). The rotation is full of both potential and question marks. Is Luis Severino the budding ace everyone hailed in 2015 or the disaster of 2016 or something in the middle that makes you think he'd better be turned into Dellin Betances 2.0? Sabathia came back big time for this team last year when he seemed all but done. Good for him, and this team is looking for one more good year from him. Tanaka is a true ace if he can stay healthy. Pineda is the most confusing pitcher in baseball. He has top rotation stuff, as evidenced by his 207k in 175.2 IP and his AL-best 70.9 contact rate. But he gave up too many homers en route to his 4.82 ERA. Other guys like Mitchell, Green, and Cessa have some solid upside to them but are unproven. I was surprised they did not try to bring in any veterans with upside or inning eating potential. As such, there just is not enough proven talent to bet on them. But watch out, because this team already is looking good.
4. Orioles. Every year they defy the odds, but I'm betting against this year. I thought about putting them 3rd, but the thing is this year is probably among their last windows for contention. As such, they may be motivated to sell if they are not firmly planted in the playoff race, because as their window closes, their minor league system is sadly shallow and depleted. They will be an interesting team overall. While I think Trumbo will regress I think Davis will have a better year and together they will combine for something pretty close to what the two collectively produced last year. Manny Machado is super-good. I'd take him over just about anybody not named Trout. I'm interested to see how Kim does in his sophmore year. I love how he defied all his detractors last year. This may finally be the year to see a full season of Gausman and Bundy starting. I suspect at least one will step forward in 2017. Which is good since guys like Ubaldo, Miley and Tillman are hard to predict. Ubaldo is in line for one last good year I think. Tillman already is showing health concerns and will likely be a little worse than he was last year. I was real disappointed that Trey Mancini will likely not get a shot now with this team. He clubbed 23 HR across AA, AAA, and MLB play last season. Britton will regress, but he uses that sinker about as good as Mariano Rivera used to use his cutter. Bullpen is still a strength overall, which is good, since Wild-Card game aside Buck Showalter is a master of bullpen management.
5. Rays. They just cannot compete with this division. Their strength was their rotation, and they dealt Smyly out of it, effectively selling low for a guy who does not fit well on this roster considering they already have Kevin Kiermaier. Although getting De Leon helps soften that blow since I think they are very similar pitchers: injury prone with high upside, perhaps as good as a number 2. They were smart to hold onto Archer though. They could probably keep him for two more seasons and get a package similar to what they were likely being offered now. I loved the Ramos deal though. Even though he'll be gone half this year, they got him at a steal of a deal. Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon got out just in time. The system is thin, the payroll and attendance is still aweful, and the on-field product is just ordinary. I'm super disappointed Souza has not panned out, he was one of those guys I just rooted for from the start. They will hit some homers, but I just don't see enough upside to hope for contention.
AL CENTRAL
1. Indians. They are getting good at just the right time: when the rest of the contenders from the central is moving in the other direction. At least in regards to on-field performance, EE is a huge upgrade over Napoli and they got him at about half what some were predicting he'd get. And to think they went to extra innings of game 7 of the World Series without their best hitter (Brantley) and without two of their best pitchers (Carrasco and Salazar). And now they got Andrew Miller for an entire year. That is one tough team. They still have some strong prospects like Zimmer and Mejia too as reinforcements should they be needed. Lindor strikes me as underappreciated across the league for how valuable he is for this team. Last year's World Series may very well have featured the two best managers in baseball, because Francona is definitely in the same sphere as Maddon. He knows how to make his team better.
2. Tigers. One more year. They will be getting bad and old quick, and before we know it there will be a lot of comparisons to the Phillies who 3 years ago were old, expensive, and mostly untradeable. That said, I think the weakness in the division along with the greater difficulty they will have in trading anyone not named Martinez (assuming now he's healthy at the deadline) will likely make them go for it this one year. They still have two of the best in Verlander (who should have won the Cy Young) and Cabrera (who is the best hitter in baseball), and enough other pieces around them to make some noise. Also, consider this: they were 4-14 against CLE last year, which means against the rest of baseball they were 82-61. That suggests this team still has something left in the tank. A bounce-back from Jordan Zimmerman would be huge. Upton's season was not as bad as it seems like it was, but it's hard to imagine him playing well enough this year to opt-out at season's end. But for a team that wants to get cheaper and wants to compete this year, nothing would be better than for him to play that well this year.
3. Royals. This is their last chance before the core group that took them to back-to-back World Series in '14 and '15 starts really getting broken up. I like their rotation additions of Hammel and Karns and Wood. It offers both depth and quality there. Soler also gives them a controllable guy with real upside. And Moss was a strong late addition too. As I write all this I talked myself into moving them up a spot from fourth to third. But I think they have real potential to firesale guys like Hosmer, Mustakas, and Cain if they are not close to contention. Yet all the same they would not surprise me if they were much improved from last year, especially since they had a 14 win decline from 2015-16, which seems somewhat abberational and can be made up nicely if guys like Escobar and Gordon rebound some offensively. They are gonna miss Morales though, who quietly was a great DH for them.
4. Twins. I started out bold and put this team third, because it's easy to forget that this team was a year removed from an 83-win season, and considering pitching has been the bane of this franchise for some time adding pitch framer extraordinaire Jason Castro should help in that department. I'm also agreeing with those who think Buxton's September performance where over his final 29 games he had an OPS of 1.011 is a sign of things to come. That seems legit considering his top prospect in baseball pedegree and the fact he hit .295 and .305 in two minor league levels last year and including his MLB performance socked 25 dingers. This guy is the breakout candidate in baseball this year. I'm also a huge Robbie Grossman fan. Mauer can't do much but get on base these days, but hopefully that'll do. Dozier is probably a 30 homer guy not a 40 homer guy going forward. His power surge late last year was as insane as Gary Sanchez's. Ervin Santana quietly had another great year last season too. Additionally veteran Phil Hughs and young righty Jose Berrios are way better pitchers than they showed. And call me biased, since I'm acquainted with the guy, but I got confidence Paul Molitor can get this team back on the upward track he set it on when he took over as manager. They really need one of Park and Vargas to step up and seize 1B/DH though.
5. White Sox. They lost two major components of their core team in Eaton and Sale. It is sad, because this team was so super frustrating. They had such a strong core they should have had no problem contending. I think I even pegged them for the World Series a couple years back! Instead, the surrounding group was so bad it made the likes of Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Abreu, and Cabrera moot. I do like the packages they got for Sale and Eaton and if they can get one more like that this team will likely be good again soon. I mean, they got so many great pitching prospects at least one is likely to be high quality, and if they strike gold on more than one...goodness! Not to mention they added one of the best prospects in baseball in Yoan Moncada. Their system got deep quick, and some could compete for ROY in 2017. Overall though, this year will probably be painful. But they may be trending in the right direction as early as mid-2018.
AL WEST
1. Astros. I'm going to Houston to see them first hand this year. They are young and they have a deep system from which they can call up or trade guys to make this a competitive year. Bregmann and Correa is about as good a left side of the IF as any in baseball. My biggest concerns are Gurriel and Keuchel, one being unproven and one having seriously disappointed last season. But when you consider that they also have McCullers and McHugh they have a solid top of the rotation that has real potential to be excellent. And they got some big pitching prospects in Martes and Paulino, solid back end guys like Morton, Musgrove, and Fiers. There is talent in this rotation even if it does not add a Jose Quintana (like many want them to).
2. Rangers. They have the talent, but not the depth - which is something we've already seen this spring when Cashner was sidelined with injury. They could really benefit from adding a late spring starter. That said, they have one tough tandem in Darvish and Hamels at the top of the rotation and will look even stronger when they get Tyson Ross into that rotation. Offensively they got some real talent in Beltre, Lucroy (who is looking like he might have a monster platform year), Odor, and Mazara. Add in bounce back candidates Choo and Gomez (who rebounded strong after coming to the Rangers late in the season) and they have a good team, but between injury concerns and the fact that this team went 36-11 in 1-run games last year (for an MLB record .766 winning percentage in such contests) which is horribly unsustainable as one-run games can so easily sway the other way, this teams seems due to regression from their 95-67 record last year.
3. Mariners. At various points I have put each of these three teams in first. I really am predicting a close contest in the AL West this year. I also really hope this is the year Seattle gets back to the playoffs, they have gone 15 seasons without a playoff appearance, longest current streak in baseball. But they looked close last year. I think the Walker deal wasn't that great, because I think Segura was due to regress offensively anyways, but especially in that ballpark. That said, he is a better SS than defensive metrics give him credit for, so I wouldn't put as much stock in the way the position swich will impact his WAR. I like what they have done with their outfield, making the team versitile, and defensive. Years ago I (and many Brewers fans) adored Mitch Hanniger when no one was talking about him. I remember how he would rake in spring training for the team and I'm glad to see him finally get his shot. It's hard to imagine Cano and Cruz hitting again as good as they did last year, but they (and Seager) still form star offensive power. Though I am concerned about Valencia having 1st to himself now that they sent down Vogelbach, a move which really surprised me. I loved the Smyly trade though, almost enough to place them higher up on the division. He has health concerns, but he was a great buy-low candidate and I think he is gonna do great for them and will make up for some of Iwakuma's decline. With Walker gone, Paxton will really have to deliver.
4. Angels. I mean, they have Trout, but not much else. Especially if I remember right that Kalhoun is injured. Their rotation, which was not looking that good anyways, also looks like a massive injury risk in Bailey, Heaney, Skaggs, and Street. Hard to imagine real turn-around. Pujols is still dangerous, but nothing like he used to be. I like their infield defense, but there just aren't enough impact players here. Real breakouts are needed to move this team further, and I am in the camp that thinks they should pursue a trade of Mike Trout. The return would probably be unprecedented, but they need it. They are too financially strapped it seems to add talent via free agency to help and too thin in their system to add it via trades/call ups. Even if you make the case that they can not get fair trade return, they also cannot compete with Trout, and therefore should consider exploring a trade that would use him to vault their system forward. All that is to say in regards to the team in the standings: not this year.
5. Atheletics. Kris Davis 40 homer season did not surprise me, except that he did it playing half his games at the Oakland Colliseum. The guy has a long, powerful swing. But overall this team looks like a lot of random pieces put together to see what sticks or can be traded. I will say this, it will be interesting to see if Matt Joyce can build off of such a strong year as a part time player in PIT. If so he could be a bargain. Best thing for them would be for Sonny Gray to return to form. Jharel Cotton is a legit rookie of the year candidate after he came over in the Rich Hill deal to deliver 29 innings of 2.15 ball.
AL WILD CARD
1. Rangers. There is just so much star power on this team it is hard to see them not in the playoff picture, even if they are a bit thin beyond the projected 25-man. And if they can get past the play-in game, they could have a real strong 3-man rotation for the playoffs. Unfortunately, I don't think they get past the play-in.
2. Mariners. I predicted a tight AL West, and with that I think it will pour into the playoffs. This team would bring a great under-dog feel to it that can be a real momentum maker in October.
ALDS
1. Red Sox v Mariners. The Mariners bring momentum and excitement, the Red Sox bring talent top to bottom. Hard not to pick them. I particularly think their rotation is so deep even with injuries they could have a great playoff rotation. Chris Sale also strikes me as a guy who is gonna go all Madison Bumgardner on the league when he finally gets a chance to pitch in the playoffs. He is an intense gamer. Red Sox win the series 3-0.
2. Astros v Indians. The Indians are such a well built team, and while Houston's rotation is better than I think it is given credit for, Cleveland has the better rotation and bullpen for the playoffs. In the end I think it's Indians take the series in four, 3-1.
ALCS
Indians v Red Sox. Hard not to envision this match-up (although really anything can happen in the playoffs, you just gotta get there). That said, the Indians are hungry for round 2 in the World Series, and I just love that team. They were so close to winning it all and they are restocked and ready for more. I think it'll be a series, but Indians in 7, 4-3.
AL MVP
Mike Trout. At this point, who else would you bet on? Betts (BOS) gave him a run for his money last year and Cano (SEA) could take it if he repeats his success last year and Seattle takes the division. Gary Sanchez (NYY) is my sleeper, if he somehow sustains anything close to his production last year over a whole season.
AL CY YOUNG
Chris Sale. The guy will have run support, more media exposure, and all the attention on him in his first year in Boston. If he pitches like he has the last five years, hard to imagine he won't win. I mean, if Boston helped Porcello win it last year, think how they'll help Sale. Verlander (DET) and Darvish (TEX) are quite capable of taking it, among several Cleveland or Seattle pitchers. Call it a sleeper I guess, but Aaron Sanchez (TOR) has the skill, just needs to deliver more innings.
AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
John Gibbons. Among teams that are current favorites for contention, Toronto strikes me as the one that will have the most critical managerial decisions such as the leash he gives his pitchers like Sanchez, and how he works guys like Pearce and Upton into the line-ups/off the bench. If the team succeeds, it feels like he'd get a lot of the credit in how he manages it. Showalter (BAL) and Francona (CLE) also seem like they have enough repute already to earn the necessary amount to win this if their teams succeed. Local boy Servais (SEA) is my sleeper.
AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Jherel Cotton. He showed good last year, and he has every opportunity to get the IP he'd need to win it in Oakland. And there is not a lot of star power on that team to over-shadow his contributions. Andrew Benintendi (BOS) is a favorite among many and looked the part last year, but if he struggles early he may lose playing time as they try to contend. I'm a Mitch Hanniger believer, and he likely will get every opportunity to contribute, and he had a huge year in AAA last season. My sleeper is Dylan Covey (CHW), for all the White Sox prospects people talk about he is a rule 5 pick and therefore will be with the team all year while guys like Giolito and Moncada will probably spend time in the minors to continue to develop and delay service time.
AL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Pablo Sandoval. He is supposedly in good shape, and he just doesn't even have to do all that much to be leagues better than he's been. It helps that Boston traded away Shaw, essentially committing to giving him a real shot at rebuilding his value. Smyly (SEA) and Brantley (CLE) also strike me as guys with a real shot. My sleeper is a tie between Chris Archer (TB) and Jose Bautista (TOR).
WORLD SERIES WINNER:
Dodgers! They are deep, well run, well managed, and now quite play off tested. They came close to the Series last year, and therefore this could be the year. Cleveland will be tough again though, but I'm going to guess 6 games, LA wins 4-2.
