2015 MLB Predictions

AL East

1. Blue Jays
2. Orioles
3. Red Sox
4. Rays
5. Yankees

The American League East is so tough to figure out. The Red Sox have the most balanced team, especially when one considers prospects who may help and versatile players like Holt and Betts to prevent a single injury leading to a major hole. But I'm not convinced about their pitching. Both the rotation and bullpen need to be better than I expect. I also have my doubts about Hanley in LF. Granted it is a much less athletic position than SS, to sign a guy for big bucks and expect him to transition so dramatically on the field is still a lot of risk. I think Sandoval will do well there though. But there is so much potential in all the teams. The Rays have a great rotation and at least are strong on the corner IF spots. I have been high on Steve Souza for a little over a year now, and I think he will do well. But the rest of the team does not impress me. The Orioles were so good the last two years, but they did little to make up for significant losses. The only reason I have them so high is they had four players who could easily out-perform their 2014 (Weiters, Davis, Hardy, and Jimenez). The Yankees, I like their overall plan and I think it will pay dividends, but they still have several players who seem to be crashing, and while several of them could also rebound (Tex, McCann, Beltran, Sabathia, A Rod, Drew) the only two I really expect to make significant improvement are McCann and Drew. Their rotation could actually be really good but has way too many injury concerns at this point. But they could easily be contenders again this year. Ultimately I went with the Blue Jays, because in a wide open division they clearly improved (so did the Sox, but I felt the Jays had less to improve and did so more dramatically). Their pitching certainly has question marks, especially as to how they will use Sanchez. But their offense is on a tier that I'm not sure anyone in baseball can compete with, and their veteran arms Buerle and Dickey both pitch in a style where age does not seem to be as great a concern as it is with most pitchers. And adding Martin will make a difference in the rotation's performance as well as help that already elite offense. If Bautista, Donaldson, and Encarnacion can stay healthy through the year, I just see the team riding on their backs.

AL Central

1. White Sox
2. Indians
3. Royals
4. Tigers
5. Twins

This may have been the hardest division to figure out. The Royals were in the World Series, the Tigers have been on top for years, the Indians have been sneaky good and the White Sox clearly had the best offseason in the division, perhaps in all of baseball for how well they plugged their holes. The Tigers I brought way down because I think they are a year older and suffered some key losses. Martinez was brought back off a career year only to get injured already. I'm curious if JD Martinez will continue to thrive, he may be a late bloomer since he credits an adjustment to his approach at the plate to his success. And I do like Cespedes as a replacement for Hunter. But this team lost Porcello and Scherzer and their work to replace them doesn't come close. A turnaround by Verlander, though unlikely, would be a huge boost. The Royals likewise are hurt by the loss of Shields and Butler. They could surprise though and be even better, as Volquez & Medlen are quality, affordable pickups with some real upside. Morales could perhaps mirror Butler's performance last year but I'm skeptical. In the end I like the Indians and the Sox, who both have fantastic rotations and offenses to support them. Both teams seem poised to be contenders in my view. In this whole division depth may be the real question, as no team particularly impresses me in that department except the Twins who are probably the only ones not really able to compete for the top of the division this year (barring a fast and successful rise by some of their stud prospects).

AL West

1. Angels
2. Mariners
3. Rangers
4. Athletics
5. Astros

This is another tough division to work out. The Angels were so good last year I will keep them on top even if their offseason did not do much to impress me. Although with Hamilton now facing a suspension they are probably really loving that deal to get Matt Joyce. They would also be well suited to trade with Boston for Allen Craig, who is versatile enough to help this team at first (should Pujols get injured or Cron not take the next step forward) or OF (especially now with the likely suspended Hamilton). I think a lot depends on how some of their young pitchers return from injury. The Mariners started looking like a real threat last year, and they got better in their offense. Nelson Cruz, especially as a DH primarily will be a huge boost for this team. Add in a Smith/Ruggiano platoon, and returning hitters like Seager, Jackson, and Cano and you got quite the team. That isn't even factoring in the fact that Jesus Montero is the talk of spring training in the shape he showed up in, and may finally blossom for this team. Put all that with an elite and deep rotation and you got yourself a contender. The next three though were really tough to figure out. The Rangers previous year can't be used in any way to determine how good they will be because they were that injured. The A's are hard to write off, and had such a weird offseason by adding guys like Zobrist and Butler while dealing J-Shark and Donaldson while also watching some players depart via free agency. In the end I think they will falter because of it, even if I am betting against Billy Beane. The Astros are on the brink but probably another season away from really rising. I thought this was the offseason for them to sign Scherzer when he had such a small market, they had few financial commitments and TWO protected first round picks. But they passed, but I did like the Lowrie pickup. In the end though they need a few more prospects to become quality major leaguers before I predict them atop the division.

Wildcard Teams

1. Mariners
2. Indians

I originally had the Orioles as my second wild card team, but the more I thought about that Indians team, the more I liked them. The Orioles are still good enough to make this, really with two Wild Cards so many teams are able to make it. Honestly, the two wild card system with a one game playoff was one of the best recent changes in baseball. I know many don't like the one game playoff, but I think it raises the stakes on being a division winner over a wild card winner and keeps the addition from making the playoffs that much longer. The only downside is your team could be in the playoffs and never get to play at home. The argument that one game is not enough to truly judge the better team only goes so far, since you could make that case easily in regards to best of 3 or 5 series, perhaps even best of 7 series. That is how the playoffs are, the better team doesn't necessarily win it all because sometimes someone struggles or thrives at the right time. 

ALCS Winner

White Sox

This team should have the rotation, backend bullpen, and offense combination to go deep in the playoffs. I think this will be their year.

AL Cy Young

Chris Sale

King Felix is the safer choice, but Sale is the better one. And his improved team should bear fruits in wins. People can say all they want about wins (and I get it), but when you have dominant stats AND wins it makes a difference.

AL MVP

Mike Trout

Jose Abreu would be my other choice. But really, I think we should get used to Trout taking home the award, especially as WAR becomes so important to so many writers, and Trout being in CF his production and defense is valued higher by WAR than it is from guys like Abreu.

AL ROY

Runny Castillo

I'm going with the young Cuban talent. He showed well last year, and should really get plenty of PT to rack up the stats he needs. His recent injury, depending how long the recovery is (and if they have him do an extended spring training or time in the minors) may make me alter my pick to Steven Souza. Tate and Pompey from Toronto are two sleepers of mine.

NL East

1. Nationals
2. Marlins
3. Mets
4. Braves
5. Phillies

This was the easiest division to predict. It's bottom teams made intentional efforts to forfeit 2015 in return for a brighter future years from now. The already elite Nationals added Max Scherzer. The Marlins added talent to accompany their excellent outfield and recovering ace pitcher. I don't expect anyone to really come close to Washington. Even if they played below expectations or suffered a major injury to one or two of their stars they are that loaded of a team. The Mets fit nicely in 3rd place. They are clearly a team on the rise, but did not do enough this offseason to convince me they will be able to take on the top two in the division. But they could be real good real soon, with a break or two, maybe even sooner than I'm predicting.

NL Central

1. Cardinals
2. Cubs
3. Brewers
4. Pirates
5. Reds

This was another really tough division. The Cardinals I am not betting against. Not after that franchise proving their place year after year and nothing really happening in this offseason to change that. Each year they are good enough to be considered a World Series contender. It was after them that was hard to figure out. I'm banking on a big year from the Cubs. They aggressively added some talent to a team that quietly had a strong second half last year already. And they have more talent on the way. Soler and Bryant will likely be a dangerous young duo to pair with their already established duo of Castro and Rizzo. Add to that a powerful (albeit strikeout prone) Baez and a talented Russell. They have depth for trades or injuries. And then look at their rotation which is surprisingly deep with Arrietta (a pickup I loved for them from the start), Lester, Hammel (a move I'm not as big on given his overall career does not support his first half performance last year), Hendricks, Wood, and Jackson and Wada (who had a quietly good debut last year). That means even if some of their question marks like Hendricks or Hammel under-perform they have good in-house replacements already! The Brewers, I'm betting on a middle of the road performance like last year ended up being. They played over their heads early on and way worse than they really were in August-September. An 80-84 win season seems right. But they are one of those teams who could really surprise and do better (the talent is there) or collapse enough early to go into a fire-sale given the number of players in contract years. My biggest concern for Milwaukee is the lack of an ace. They have a solid and balanced rotation, but no ace. They also made a mistake I think by not getting a platoon partner for at least one of Gennett and Lind. The Pirates too could be better, but I'm anticipating that AJ Burnett's second tour will be less successful and the loss of Russell Martin will hurt way more than many think. But I wouldn't be surprised necessarily if they and the Cubs or Brewers switched spots. Even the Reds who I got picked for last place could be contenders. Even after trading Latos and Simon they have a strong rotation and IF their stars all remained healthy this would be a dangerous team. Basically after St. Louis this division is wide open.

NL West

1. Dodgers
2. Padres
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies

I will be a sucker for this Padres team, although I have my doubts. They aren't better than the Dodgers, who along with the talent have some minor league depth as well. I also think Meyers and Upton may struggle offensively in PETCO. Not to subpar levels, but they won't produce like some expect them to in that park. But any offense may be all the Padres need with their rotation, which they strengthened by adding Shields. As much as I am a fan of McGehee, the Giants did not answer to the loss of Sandoval at all, and now Pence is injured too. Although I do like the addition of Aoki. That was one of the best contracts of the offseason. A strong year from Cain could put them in second, but I'm not planning on it. The bottom part was hard to rank, because while I clearly saw these two as bottom dwellers I'm not sure who I prefer where. I put the Diamondbacks second only because I think their star (Goldschmidt) is a more reliable one than the Rockies have and I liked the Tomas signing, which ended up being way cheaper than I expected it to be to sign him. But overall I didn't like either offseason. 

Wildcard Teams

1. Marlins
2. Padres

These two teams worked for it and I expect their offseasons to pay off. I may be unwise betting against the NL Central that has been consistently providing wildcard teams, but I'm not betting against the Marlins's outfield or the Padres's pitching. But like I already said, two Wild Cards leaves things wide open, and with exception to the Diamonbacks, Rockies, Phillies, and Braves I would not be surprised to see any of the 11 other teams in the playoffs. But the wild card is where I expect the action to be as picking division winners in the National League was a lot easier.

NLCS Winner

Nationals
Easy choice. This team was already in my view the best on paper at the start of the offseason and they got better. They have a championship rotation and star offense. I have a hard time seeing where this team has any cracks (although they will miss Clippard in their pen).

NL Cy Young

Clayton Kershaw
Until Fernandez in MIA proves he's healthy again, I got no one I would think of picking over Kershaw, who is right now what Verlander was a few years ago and then some.

NL MVP

Troy Tulowitzki
I'm going to be risky here. Tulo has shown over and over he has all the skills, but just can't stay healthy. This year even he seemed destined for the MVP until the pain came. He is so good no one even questions the Coors Field factor in his talent. Since all it takes is health, he's young enough still I'll bet on that. 

NL ROY

Jorge Soler

There were definitely some options here. Bryant may even be the wiser choice, but I bet he won't start the season with the club so Chicago can control him another year, which gives Soler the advantage. Tomas could also take this. But Soler has already shown in a small sample size he can hit major league pitching. So I'm putting my stock in him.

WORLD SERIES WINNER
Nationals
This team went from elite to even more elite. Chicago, even though all the right pieces are there, still aren't enough for me to bet against what the Nats have to bring.

Now it's time for the season to start, when predictions go out the window and what you are on paper doesn't even matter!