Baseball Christmas Lists: 3 Teams - 3 Moves

Time for a little baseball talk.

I love the offseason because of all the possibility it brings. Teams that seems irrelevant one year burst on the scene and make big offseason noise. While teams like the Red Sox and White Sox have dominated headlines, here are 3 teams that with a couple of possibly realistic moves could drastically improve their team for the 2017 season:

New York Yankees
The Yanks really did what I wanted them to do most this offseason: which was resign Ardolis Chapman for < $100mm and not blow all their young talent on a trade. I was lukewarm at best on Matt Holliday (although he has potential to be a great pickup, and at one year isn't likely to really be a "bad move"). But now New York can focus on some smaller moves that can put them in a place to contend without being "all in" moves.

1. Sign Brett Anderson. I did think Rich Hill would have been a good move for New York. But I understand not wanting to commit that kind of money to such an aging/injury prone recent phenom. That is why I like them as a place for Brett Anderson. Anderson is still young enough (He'll be 29 on opening day) to maintain his upside. At one point he was a future ace for Oakland, and has at 3 different seasons posted sub-3.00 ERAs, and has a solid career ERA of 3.86 (105 ERA+)and an even better career FIP (3.70). He is just a season removed from a strong season of 180.1 innings of 3.69 baseball. His downsides are he had a horrible year last season in terms of longevity and performance and that is saying much on the longevity side since he is consistently injured. In fact he has only amassed >100IP 3 times in his career. His upside and injury risk make him like a riskier-lesser Rich Hill; not as sexy but also not as expensive. And New York has only 3 players who are really locks for their rotation (Sabathia, Tanaka, and Pineda) who all are no sure thing on the health front, meaning they should take the risk because even if Anderson is likely no good for a full season they could benefit greatly from having him for even half a season. Additionally, while they have some interesting rotation pieces, they could certainly offer him a real chance to start rather than other teams where signing on he would be more of a depth piece. And while other high-risk pitchers may offer more upside (ala Tyson Ross), Anderson will likely cost the team much less to take the risk.

2. Acquire Hernan Perez from MIL for Leonardo Molina OR Donny Sands. The Yankees have a lot of young guys who will be getting extended looks this year and could use some players who offer positional versatility. Perez (26 in March) is just that. This last year for the Brewers he played all IF and OF positions, proving to be a true utility player. And while he hardly is an astute defender at any position, it is that flexibility that will make him valuable to New York who may have to send some guys down to get more cuts in the minors at times. Not only is Perez a cheap, young, controllable guy they can plug in wherever they need him, he also this last year started to show himself to be a solid offensive piece as well. In 123 games for MIL in 2016 he hit 13 homers and stole 34 bases. The main weakness in his game is he doesn't walk much, but he at least hits for solid average (in over 200 games for Milwaukee he hit just over .270). All in all he is a very valuable bench piece to plug in for injuries/off days or for things like late game pinch running. On the other side of the trade, Molina and Sands were both ranked at the back end of MLB.com's midseason top 30 organizational prospect ranking with Molina coming in as New York's 28th best prospect and Sands ranked at 26. Molina however has probably greater upside and in fact has a 5-tool ceiling, but he is way behind in New York's depth chart and still years away (2019 ETA per the site) making him expendable. Sands also has a 2019 ETA, and was an 8th rounder drafted in 2015. He was a SS/P moved to 3B when drafted and then to C, where I imagine his intrigue for MIL would come in as their best C prospect (Nottingham) does not seem a sure thing to stick at the position. Both players are low enough that New York could afford to deal them but either one should be quality enough to garner Milwaukee's interest in a trade.



3. Sign Jorge De La Rosa. These moves seem so small scale for New York, but they make sense. The benefit of De La Rosa, a LHP who has spent quite some time now in the unfriendly pitching confines of COL is he can start or pitch relief. In fact, while most players of that tune are more likely seeking starting gigs, De La Rosa was clear he is willing to pitch relief. That means New York could sign him as a bit of a swing man, intending to use him in the pen, but able to switch him to the rotation in the likely event one of their starters is injured. He just makes sense as a depth option and is helpful by his openness to also pitching relief, which too many pitchers are grumpy about (ask Matt Garza if you don't believe me). And frankly, any guy who can survive Coors can compete in the AL East.

Houston Astros
Houston made some noise early in the offseason, adding Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Nori Aoki, and Charlie Morton. They are positioning themselves to be a tough team, combining this now young core of players with the necessary accompaniments.

1. Acquire Drew Smyly from TB for Forrest Whitley OR David Paulino, Daz Cameron OR Teoscar Hernandez, and Brady Rogers OR Guadalupe Chavez and Mike Fiers. It's no secret that Houston wants to improve its rotation. I can understand why as their current #1-3 starters all have great potential but have varying question marks. They were long said by many to be a good match for the White Sox's remaining gem Jose Quintana, but the cost is likely too much. Houston spent years in obscurity to build up this system and that kind of deal is just not worth it, not especially when they have a solid enough rotation that they don't need an ace or #2 pitcher. Still, it would help. This deal aims at one of the ones who may be available and attainable at a non-system gutting price. The price will be high still, because of how poor the free agent market was for starters, but Smyly had a down year and durability concerns enough that his price should still be attainable. Whitley or Paulino, both top 100 prospects on mlb.com's midseason report (69 and 70 respectfully) would be the headliner. Cameron or Hernandez would give a second top 10 team prospect and provide Tampa with an OF, an area they could improve upon organizationally, and the last prospect choice (between Rogers who has less upside but more MLB ready and Chavez who has a little more upside but is further away) is the cost of a pitcher in this market I think. Even with two top 10 prospects from a deep organization, 1 being a top 100 prospect, it will still likely take one more to get things done. Fiers also is a nice pickup for Tampa, giving them an immediate (albeit lesser) replacement who has some upside of his own. Why do this? Because before last season Smyly looked like a budding ace having delivered seasons of 2.37, 3.24, and 3.11 ball. He also has a strong career k/9 rate of 8.7 and a 3.43 k/bb ratio. He could step into the #2 or #3 spot of Houston's rotation and greatly improve their overall pitching outlook (if he can remain healthy of course).

2. Sign Tyson Ross. The second move to strengthen the rotation is Ross. Near about any team in baseball could be in on Ross right now, and if healthy he could likely step into any rotation. How healthy he will be is the question, and how much he will cost is the issue. Ross is rumored to be seeking 9-10mm to pitch for someone. Houston could go one of several routes I think: offer the money, or offer less guaranteed money (say 6mm) with either a lot of incentives to boost it well beyond that total (like to 12-13mm) or include 1-2mm in incentives AND a player option at a similar rate, offering Ross the choice to have another season of guaranteed money or to reenter the market if he fares well in 2017. Either way, Ross's success in SD is just too strong to ignore, and would make him a great addition to the rotation, even if only for part of the season. And pitching for a winner should hold some appeal in its own right. This would also prevent division rival teams like, Los Angeles, Seattle and Texas, all of whom would also have real reasons to add Ross.

3.Sign Brandon Moss. Houston has some uncertainty at LF and 1B, where guys like Reed, Aoki, and Gattis may be taking the bulk of the time. Additionally, Beltran while he has been so good for so long, is getting up there quickly in age. Depth at these positions, quality depth, would be wise. Moss adds another guy into that mix of 1B/LF/DH types. He has shown, including last year, some serious pop in his bat yet with the glut of similar types of rocky defense, big power hitters in this market he isn't likely to cost the team too much. Perhaps a 2 year deal in the $10-$16mm range. That's a modest commitment for a guy who hit 19 or more homers in each of the last 5 seasons, include 28 last year (his 3rd time hitting 25 or more) in only 128 games.

Colorado Rockies
What the Rockies really need is to build a completely indoor stadium like the Metrodome, where they can control air pressure more and make the place playable for pitchers. Or simply move to another city. But since neither of those seem likely to happen anytime soon, how about we settle for a couple deals that could put this fringe contender in a place to be a real contender if some of their young players continue to improve.

1. Trade Carlos Gonzalez to BAL for Darrin O'Day and PTBNL. The O's are still looking for an OF upgrade, the Rockies have a surplus of OF. While Blackmon is the more appealing option, he seems at this point less likely to be dealt as the teams that needed him the most and would pay well for him prospect wise seem to have all moved on, thus I think Car-Go is the more likely trade candidate. According to MLBtraderumors, Baltimore balked at a Jay Bruce for Brad Brach swap. I think a Cargo-for-Brach would be a good deal, but I'm not sure BAL would do that with all the salary they would be taking on, and they would be taking on a lot with Car-Go's 20mm 2017 salary. But being a one-year rental might be nice for BAL as they have a small window of contention anyways so they may prefer short term commitments. Coming back in the deal, COL adds to their bullpen. A Colorado team needs more than a good starter, it needs a good bullpen. Therefore O'Day, who has a career 2.41 ERA, and has through his career stranded 75% of his inherited runners would be a good addition. And while pricey, he is controllable for 3 more seasons. It's hard to gauge how the 1-for-1 element lines up, but I think it would be reasonable to expect Baltimore to contribute a minor leaguer in this deal, just who though is hard to determine and will be left as a player to be named later. Ultimately the deal is about adding a quality reliever while opening up a spot in the crowded OF and adding financial relief so that they can...

2. Sign Matt Wieters. I really liked COL as a site for C Jason Castro. Castro was a great receiver, but a light hitting catcher. He seemed perfect for Colorado since the confines would perhaps attract him so he could boost his offense hitting there while bringing him in would improve pitching theoretically since he was a good game caller and pitch framer. If Colorado cannot use free agency to bring in good pitchers, they should try using it to bring in catchers who can improve their current pitchers. While he is not as good defensively, Wieters does bring defensive upside with him along with offensive upside that would play well in Colorado. He could shore up what has long been a position of weakness for the Rockies. And the available funds from trading Gonzalez should make adding him possible. It will also allow Desmond to move to OF so the team can...

3. Sign one of Chris Carter, Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli. The Trumbotron would be the best here I think. His power would play well, he could probably handle 1B halfway decently, and the team already surrendered its first-rounder when it signed Desmond so he will only cost a 2nd round draft pick. But I'm not sure they will have the budget space for him post-Wieters signing. If not, Napoli is a winner, a fan-favorite, a capable defender, and still has some power as he displayed last year for AL Champion Cleveland. But Carter may be cheaper, and still brings walks and way more power to the game as he led the NL in homers last year at 41. Any one of them will add pop, the question is really the price difference as to which one makes the most sense for Colorado. If I had to pick only one, I'd go with Napoli as the better combo of defense and power and the desire to excite the fanbase while more likely being in their price range.

So that's my picks to improve New York's depth, Houston's rotation, and round Colorado out a bit. What are your thoughts?