Jose Iglesias: Yankees. Speaking of the Bronx Bombers, here is my first match. The Yankees are planning on giving the starting SS gig to Troy Tulowitzky, at least until Didi Gregorious can return midseason from his injury. In general I like the plan because Didi has been a great Yankee and Tulo for the league minimum (and off of Turf again) at least should provide solid production with some upside. But given Tulo's own injury risk, and the uncertainty of how Didi will return from the DL (sorry MLB, it is still the DL to me), they would be wise to stack some depth there. Iglesias would provide glove value not offensive value, but for this team that may be all they need, and the good thing is that gives him a high floor, which is what they should get. Preseason I picked Orioles, where he still stands to be an upgrade.
Ervin Santana: Padres. The Pads just made the big waves with the $300mm signing of Manny Machado. Given that he's likely to give the most value on the first 3-4 years of that deal they should be pushing hard to improve and I think Santana may be one of the best bargains available on the market because he has some of the largest bounce-back potential given that his value is down primarily from an injury (and ineffectiveness likely tied to that injury). Given the years of strong performances that preceded it there is more reason to believe he can bounce back than say...Troy Tulowitzky. The Pads clearly need to improve in their pitching, and given their ballpark that should be the easier thing to improve. In my preseason prediction for him I listed the Mariners which still also seems reasonable but given their soft-rebuild they seem to need him less.
Denard Span: Reds. I have to applaud the Reds for their offseason. I still think they are the bottom dwellers of this division, but not by much (the NLC and NLE look to be fun division races this year). Since there really were no good moves to further tank/rebuild, they opted to push towards competitiveness. But since they let Billy Hamilton go their CF situation is not as reliable (Billy may not have been great with the bat, but you knew what to expect from him overall as a player). Span would be a great 4th OF. He measured out well as a hitter and runner last year, and while his defense is not what it used to be he could still probably fake it in CF if they need to. And let's not forget this team is considering putting Matt Kemp in OF, so....
Logan Morrison: Rockies. Whereas a guy like Iglesias has a high floor and low ceiling, LoMo is more the opposite. And in the last two years we've seen how high his ceiling can be and how low his floor really is. Now the Rockies did add Daniel Murphy with the idea he'd be playing a lot of 1B, but Morrison might just crush it in Colorado. The guy is one year removed from a massive offensive outburst and his ISO and BABIP last year both suggest he could possibly perform at that level again. He's not likely going to cost much either. I say put him at 1B and Murphy at 2B. You can do late game defensive shifts or move Murph back over if LoMo doesn't pan out. But the Rockies have had a revolving door at 1B for some time with surprisingly little results it seems. This just seems like a low cost risk worth taking. The original intent to play Murphy out of his natural position (which has no clear-cut replacement as-is) is what makes this such a good move. If it doesn't pan out plan B is their current plan A, but if it does they are a much better team.
Carlos Gomez: Brewers. This is a pure depth move and may not be the best chance for Go-Go. Teams like the Giants and Orioles strike me as possibilities there, and like LoMo, his track record was better than his previous season so someone may believe in him enough to give him a legit shot at starting. The reason I like the Brewers for him is two-fold: The Brewers have traded away a lot of their OF depth this season, sending Domingo Santana to Seattle (where I think he will do well) and Keon Broxton to the Mets (where I'm less bullish on his outlook given the fact they already have a great defensive-RHH CF in Lagares). While Ben Gamel looks to be the 4th OF, and guys like Perez can handle OF, there are no clear guys to come up in the event of an injury, and having Gomez's upside in their depth would be good for a team looking to compete in a tough division. For Gomez the reason would be he was at his best in Milwaukee. Fans loved him (some wild swings and inability to hit cut-off men aside) and he has not performed at the level he did when he was here, so I'm banking a bit on the comfort factor perhaps coming into play. Don't forget that he liked it here so much he signed a very team friendly extension to stay (and that's with his agent Scott Boras likely counseling against it).James Shields: Athletics. The A's somehow were a great team with a terrible rotation last year. Terrible on paper at least. This year they still need to cobble together some semblance of a rotation. With Shields they are likely going to get innings, not quality innings. But really, that may be important for them at this stage. They have a lot of guys who will be coming back at some point from injury, best not to put too many innings on those arms. Shields can be our modern day Livan Hernandez. Nothing fancy or special, but somehow good for 180-200IP. I would think moving to that spacious stadium might be helpful too.
Hanley Ramirez: Unemployment. This guy was available for a box of cracker jacks last year and no one bit. Now he is a year older and a year less likelky to produce at his past herculean levels. He probably should be worth a minor league invite, but I am not convinced he will get one. I predict independent league ball for him, and least for starters. If he does well, that + his solid dominican league play + an injury or grave underperformance might = a midseason contract.
Jose Bautista: Indians. Cleveland has done nothing to improve its outfield this offseason and generally have put their foot to the breaks, focusing more on decreasing spending. Lucky for them Jose shouldn't cost much of anything. He is defensively limited, and his bat is diminished. He likely won't hit for much average. But he walks and still has some pop, which is great for an outfield that seems to lack certainty in those two areas. He's a role player for them, but one who could help keep this outfield from killing much needed late-inning rallies for the Indians. While they are the clear favorites in the division, their offseason (mixed with real chances for improved results from the Royals, Twins, or White Sox) and the gap may not be as wide as it first appears.
Matt Holliday: Braves. The Nick Markakis signing really inspired no one, expect maybe the Markakis family. Some outfield depth would be wise for a team that made a quick splash with the Josh Donaldson signing (which I love for them btw), and then has had an underwhelming offseason. Holliday could be like this year's Jose Bautista for them. A solid veteran who comes up when they need him most and then is cut loose when they don't need him anymore. But if they guy can get on base at a crazy clip again, he - like Bautista before him - will be a valuable bat off the bench.
Tyler Clippard: Red Sox. Any reader of MLBTradeRumors.com have seen the criticism the Sox received for essentially letting their bullpen suffer loses to free agency with no relief. And any reader would also know that cost is a major factor because of where the Red Sox are in regards to spending and luxury tax (funny no one ever calls them the "evil empire" now that they have been top spenders and one of the 21st century's winning-est ball clubs). This puts them in a position to really likely go with what they got, at least for now. As the chats on traderumors puts it: they have a reasonable shot at a wild card at least if not the division as they are currently constructed, so start the season seeing what you got and react accordingly. It's not a terrible plan, but if a quality, experienced, late-inning arm is available at an affordable rate (as I suspect he will be at this stage) then they should add him. Bullpens are volatile, more than anything else in this game. Therefore you need to stack them with depth and guys with long history of bullpen success are a wise addition.
*Note: Shortly after publishing this I see Clippard signed with the Indians. My terrible choices continue...
