2019 MLB Predictions

I can't begin to describe how happy I am that Major League Baseball is back. And with it comes my predictions for the upcoming season so I can have it in writing when you want to rub it in my face again. Like how last year I predicted the Nats would go to the World Series or the Twins would win the Central. That made me look dumb.

Although, props for picking a Mets pitcher to win Cy Young (albeit I picked the wrong one), or Acuna as my back-up ROY, but my proudest prediction (since most of those were safe picks) was my darkhorse pick for MVP: Christian Yelich!

Disclaimer, I wanted to wait on this post until Kimbrel and Keuchel signed because they are significant additions, but with Opening Day yesterday (plus the two game Japan series for the Mariners and A's) I just couldn't wait any longer.

World Series Winner: Let's get this out of the way...the Patriots of Baseball, the Evil Empire, the New York Yankees will win the 2019 World Series.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST I think this is the hardest division to predict as the top four are all really close in my mind.

1. Phillies - They have the payroll to add Keuchel or Kimbrel if they need or acquire a guy at the deadline. I think yesterday's game showed this team feels energized. A good start could go a long way for them so I am boldly picking them for top spot.
2. Nationals - This team could be first, but let's not forget that they did lose Harper. Strasburg's health is too unreliable and it is TBD if Corbin will be as good as he was last year.
3. Braves - Loved the Donaldson addition, hated that they basically stopped there. They have depth and prospect capital so a good start and they could make the biggest splash at the deadline.
4. Mets - They made a lot of excitement, they have all the pieces to win the division. But their lack of depth puts them 4th since bad health/slumps will probably hurt them more than anyone ahead of them. Kudos for working to put together a winner though.
5. Marlins - Yeah, they are wayyyy behind the rest. Probably the worst team in the NL.

CENTRAL If the East was hardest, the NLC ain't much easier. It figures to be the most competitive division 1-5 in baseball. But that also may be bad news for them as they will be beating up on each other quite a bit.

1. Cardinals - I hate doing this, but they have great depth. I was hoping they'd deal Martinez because (as we nearly saw yesterday had Lorenzo Cain not saved the day) he is a dangerous weapon off the bench. Goldschmidt is likely going to kill in this division. Ozuna should be better too. 
2. Brewers - This team is so hard to predict. Last year I put them third and they happily stole the show. But a lot went right, including a near-perfect September, a ton of walk-off victories, and a crazy MVP finish by Yelich. Also, perhaps no team benefited more last year from September roster expansions than the Brewers. Can't expect it all to play out that way again. But the team added Grandal and will have Moose for a whole season. The extent of injuries and time not playing by Nelson, Jeffress, and Knebel (maybe whole season) could really derail this team. Kimbrel would be in my estimation a wise investment.
3. Cubs - Like the Braves, what an awful offseason. Especially with how strapped for cash they were the decision to keep Hamels may backfire, but as good as he was it is hard to say no. But a healthy Drew Smyly who they had to dump just to have enough money for Hamels may be just as good. Still, this team won 95 games last year and has some electric players. They could easily win the division.
4. Pirates - A lot of their guys underperformed last year. A return to form and a whole season from Archer could be dangerous. They are sort of a "if a few things go right we will be great" or "if things few things go sour it will be a long season" kind of team. In the end I expect them to tread water.
5. Reds - loved their offseason, and they are good enough that if enough goes right they could be towards the top of this division but I don't expect it. Gray and Wood were great additions, Votto will always be a tough out it seems but they lost Gennett for a period and their outfield overall does not impress me. In a weaker division they would have really shot up in the standings, but these teams still look better to me. They'll enjoy a better, hopeful, but not successful 2019.

WEST If the Padres take a step forward things will be very interesting. Otherwise there isn't much excitement in predicting this division.

1. Dodgers - No question. Still a powerhouse, and they were able to unload some salary and deadweight. Although I think they will miss Wood. That said, they've held onto their best prospects and still have some great young arms to supplant him. Kershaw's looking old fast.
2. Rockies - They have probably the best rotation in franchise history to go along with two of their finest hitters in franchise history (Blackmon and Arrenado). 
3. Padres - Why not get optimistic? After AJ Preller's initial offseason when he tried to build an instant winner, he's had to slowly build back up that farm system. Then he went and added Manny Machado. If Hosmer and Myers could have a season that doesn't make their contracts look like sunken costs this team could be quite solid. Kudos for starting Tatis in the majors rather than delaying his service time to get an extra year of control.
4. Diamondbacks - I like what they got for one year of Goldschmidt since they were not resigning him or likely contending. But they lost their two best hitters and did not really do much else. So here they are in 4th place.
5. Giants - They are like one injured pitcher or hitter away from being awful. Sure a surprise breakout or two could change a lot. Shark and Cueto and Bumgardner pitching like they are four years younger and this team is a contender. But what are the odds?

NL WILD CARDS: Rockies and Nationals. The NL Central teams are better, but because they have to play each other so many times and don't have the luxury of 19 games against teams like the Marlins and Giants leaves me to conclude they will pummel each out too far down in the standings to make the postseason even though on paper both Wild Cards should probably come from the NLC.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

EAST A top heavy division with really only one wild card factor.

1. Red Sox - It's tough to pick them over the Yankees, but this team was amazingly good this year. I know many made a point of their weaker bullpen, although is there anything easier to fix? 
2. Yankees - I would love for them to come out on top and they easily could. Their starting pitching could be great or terrible, it really is that variable. Expect a big year from Stanton.
3. Rays - Somehow they won 90 games last year. I don't even know when or how that happened. That's what makes them so dangerous. They practically stole Tommy Pham from St. Louis. I have no idea how to predict this team's success this year, so we'll just keep them here.
4. Blue Jays - The Guerrero injury hurts, and this team was already only a borderline contender. Stroman and Sanchez may also become big time trade bait at the deadline if they are performing and the team is not. Perfect season to sell high.
5. Orioles - this team was so terrible last year and they had guys like Britton, Machado, and Gausman with them for half the season. How bad is it gonna be this year? Answer...real bad!

CENTRAL The most boring division in all of baseball.

1. Indians - They basically got worse, perhaps even a lot worse. But in a division this bad it doesn't really matter. Save some money and win big. That's having your cake and eating it too.
2. Twins - They are probably the only team that can really challenge for the division, but they had a joke of an offseason. There is still a lot of talent on this roster. 
3. White Sox - A lot would need to go right to contend, but the talent is there is could. But the greenness of this team and the table-holders suggest to me they are more likely to do worse than third than better. Eloy for a whole season should be great for them. Had they added Manny and Keuchel they'd be in the 2 spot. But they didn't, so they aren't.
4. Royals - I would love for this team to like the champion Royals before them defy projections and expectations. At the very least, in this power-game of strikeouts-homers the more contact/speed roster should be fun to watch.
5. Tigers - They want to be bad. They will trade anyone good to anyone who wants them. They lost their best pitcher (and trade chip) already. They will be bad. Mission accomplished.

WEST A tougher division outside of the first and last team to predict.

1. Astros - the core is still together. They did lose two good pitchers to their rotation, but they have had some great pitching prospects waiting for a chance. This year will be that chance. I'm a little surprised they did not add a true DH.
2. Angels - Made some risky upside moves for the rotation. Now if only they can stay healthy. Nice to see Trout stay an Angel for life. A lot of guys have room for improvement, even if not full return to form. That makes this team well positioned to make a solid run this year.
3. Mariners - Most exciting GM in baseball. I hope he goes to another team soon just to keep things interesting. He still has some talent on the field and I like the Kikuchi signing.
4. A's - Like the Rays, I don't know how they did it last year. I don't expect them to do it again.
5. Rangers - Felt like the offseason bad teams used to have, where they add third string guys, trade a few, get a few. Just shuffle in the hopes you might be better but in no way make a splashy investment. Hard to expect them to be anywhere but last this year.

AL WILD CARDS: Yankees and Rays. The Yankees feel obvious. I wouldn't be surprised if a West team claims the second Wild Card but between the Rays' 2018 success and the opportunity to play the Oriole 19 times I'm gonna bet on two East Wild Card teams.

PLAYOFFS

Wild Card Play Ins: Yankees over Rays, Nationals over Rockies

Division Series: Yankees over Astros 3-2, Red Sox over Indians 3-1, Cardinals over Dodgers 3-2, Nationals over Phillies 3-2. The biggest upset predicted here would be the Dodgers failing to return to the Championship Series for the fourth straight year. Nats will have last laugh by eliminating Harper in his first year in Philly.

Championship Series: Yankees over Red Sox 4-2, Nationals over Cardinals 4-2. The Yankees have a bone to pick with Boston and are hungry to get back to the World Series. Their bullpen is such a powerhouse weapon for the postseason I think it will edge them over their rivals. Though they made me look foolish for picking it last year I will predict a Washington pennant again because I lover their rotation over St. Louis'.

World Series: Yankees over Nationals 4-1. The Yanks are built for the postseason and especially after just missing going in 2017 and the Red Sox winning in 2018 I have to think they are about as hungry as ever. 

AWARDS

NL ROY: Fernando Tatis Jr. When one of baseball's best prospects gets to play the entire year ya gotta go with him. For my backups I will take Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers (who always get Rookie love for their good players) and Victor Robles of the Nationals. For my sleeper I'll take Alex Reyes.

AL ROY: Eloy Jimenez. Like with Tatis Jr. above I gotta go with the top ranks guy who will be playing all season. That extension effectively began his service clock and near guarantees he will play all year. The easiest backup is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who most have picked for ROY, although injury and service considerations will hamper his opportunity. I'll also backup with Justus Sheffield. For a sleeper, I was torn because Jesus Luzardo might be worth picking but will ultimately go with Bo Bichette.

NL Cy Young: Hard not to pick Jacob DeGrom after the season he had and watching him pick up right where he left off last year. For a backup I will take the ever contending Scherzer and Aaron Nola. My sleeper pick is Walker Buehler.

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole. He's in a contract year, and was amazing last year. Any step further and he'll be the best. For back-up we will take the ever perennial Chris Sale and Justin Verlander. For my out of the box sleeper I guess I will take the man I've been big on for a while now Jose Berrios.

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Josh Donaldson. Not hard to win when all you gotta do is play healthy. I'll take Cory Seager for a backup along with Jimmy Nelson. My sleeper is Nelson's teammate Eric Thames.

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Jonathan Schoop which would be huge for his team. A fresh year, fresh start, low expectations all make for a good atmosphere to return to elite 2B form. Christ Davis would be vastly improved if he hit the mendoza line so it's hard not to bet there for a backup along with Zack Cozart who also would not need to do much to be much improved. For a sleeper I will opt for fellow teammate Kole Calhoun.

NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt. I've picked him before and now he gets in a better line up and plays 19 games against the Brewers, a team he has clobbered historically. Plus he has to be happy and comfortable to have that nice big extension. Back ups will be Cory Seager and Bryce Harper. For my sleeper I'll with Anthony Rendon.

AL MVP: Jose Ramirez. Ya always gotta something wild and bold for a prediction. How about not taking the safe pick of Mike Trout who I will take for my back up along with Betts. Don't sleep however on Carlos Correa.

I'm skipping manager of the year this year because I can. It's my blog. So there.

Happy 2019 Baseball!