2021 MLB Predictions

 

Alright readers, we are on the cusp of a new season of baseball! After the unfortunate shortened season of 2020 it's time for 2021 and a return to some more normalcy. And with a new CBA around the corner there are ill omens of a possible work stoppage in baseball's future so let's really enjoy this season (can I get an "amen"?).

AL West: 

1. Oakland Athletics: I've doubted them for too long. This team is better than it looks. They've performed in a very consistent winning percentage the last couple years, and have a star in Matt Chapman with some solid pieces to compliment. I also like the upside of the pitchers.
2. Los Angeles Angels: With Rendon and Trout the floor is gonna be low. The only question is if they can ever piece together a group around them. I'm confident enough, especially with the decreased quality of the division that they have a better shot this year.
3. Houston Astros: A lot will depend on how well their hitters - particularly their infielders - will rebound. More upside to this team than any other. But losing Verlander is a huge blow. I like the Odorrizi singing. 
4. Seattle Mariners: This team has a lot of unproven talent and could one year surprise and put it all together. They have some of baseball's best prospects plus reigning ROY Kyle Lewis, so things are looking up. But I think we're still at least a year away from being in the upper half of this division.
5. Texas Rangers: Sorry to say this looks like a sad state team. They look worse than they did before (yikes), although I think Kris Davis may have a big rebound year for them. I hope so, I've always been a huge fan. Joey Gallo is as good of a 3 true outcome player as there is.

AL Central:

1. Minnesota Twins: They've been real strong for three of the last four years. They're young and talented and still got some team depth and payroll flexibility. Maeda is probably in for some regression, but he's still good (I always thought it was crazy that LA would not start him more). They're gonna miss Rosario. And if Donaldson and Cruz show their age things could be much worse than it looks.
2. Chicago White Sox: Before Eloy's injury I had them as first in the division. They have a really talented team and it is really young with room to be even better. I really like the team that's been constructed. But depth could be an issue.
3. Kansas City Royals: I'm betting on the Royals bucking the system once again. This is a team that dances to its own tune in baseball and has succeeded by doing so. I really liked their offseason. It wasn't ridiculous, it wasn't loaded with expectations, but it quietly improved a quality (if unspectacular) young team. The rotation will be an issue.
4. Cleveland Indians: So I'm taking a risk and predicting this team will not keep over-performing. The Indians have managed to be relevant for years. But I think the Lindor dud of a trade will really bite them, especially since they shipped Carrasco with him. They somehow always have the pitching no matter who is gone, but I think they will be sorry. Bieber is a beast though and Ramirez is under-rated by fans.
5. Detroit Tigers: Still a basement team, but man they might be the White Sox in a few years. Here's to hoping Miggy has a good year. He could reach 3k hits and 500 home runs this season! I'm glad Hinch was hired as their manager, he did not deserve to be out of baseball forever with the Houston sign stealing scandal since all reports indicate he knew about it but was unhappy with it. He should be a good fit for this team.

AL East:

1. New York Yankees: Injuries are a concern, this team has a lot of volatility because of it. But they are still the Yankees and I'm a believer in the rotation's upside. Loved the LeMahieu deal for them. They may be running out of years where they are in the top 2 of this division. But Cashman knows how to GM this team well, and there is some solid depth to go with the oft injured star power.
2. Toronto Blue Jays: An excellent line up with a solid if unspectacular rotation (especially after Ryu). This team reminds me of some of the past Yankees teams, and like them, I imagine they will be in contention if not the playoffs.
3. Tampa Rays: Losing Snell is going to hurt. Though like the Indians and A's, this team has played better than they should and is a sum of its parts. Still, their method of trading stars while still in the realm of contention is a dangerous gamble and I'm betting against them.
4. Boston Red Sox: Kind of a team stuck in transition. They don't strike me as good enough to take the division, though they could be in contention by the break. But more likely they look like a team ready to sell off more parts at the trade deadline to restock a depleted farm system.
5. Baltimore Orioles: Not a lot of hope for this current roster. Especially since some of its legit performers like Mancini will very likely be traded at the deadline. The pitching may be unproven, but there is some talent there and I expect at least one breakout this season, though this team has been really bad for sometime in developing talented pitchers into quality major leaguers (as evidenced by the success so many of these guys have found after leaving Baltimore).

AL Wild Cards: Toronto and Chicago. More complete teams than the other options. Both have a strong chance to take their own divisions so I'll pick them. 

NL West:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: They are deep and talented. Winds of change may be coming in regards to who is king on the West, but not this year. Bauer is a wild card, he could be an ace or he could be just good. Bellinger will be a beast again. This team is strong in every facet of the game and resourceful in prospects and cash.
2. San Diego Padres: I would be expecting some regression except that Preller put the pedal to the metal and really strengthened an already good team this offseason. To think he was able to do that and still maintain several of baseball's top prospects is amazing. Tatis is the most exciting player in baseball and plays a premium position. I expect Darvish to regress some, but he's still a clear upgrade. Musgrove, though he came with the least fanfare, may be the most surprising improvement. He had a career year last year and is 28. 
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: This team is probably better than they were in 2020 but worse than they were in 2019. But the team is solid not spectacular and has more chance to fail than exceed expectations.
4. San Francisco Giants: This team could build off of last year and actually be a winner (not contender, but on the right side of .500), but Longoria, Belt, Posey, Dickerson, and Crawford are all a year older and the rotation isn't formidable. So I'm betting against.
5. Colorado Rockies: Sold low on Arenado, will almost certainly sell off Story before season end, and the good pitchers of a few years ago are looking as susceptible to Coors air as we've grown acustomed to. 

NL Central:

1. Chicago Cubs: I know they had a terrible offseason, and their rotation took a huge hit, but they were good even when their core guys were awful last year. Hendricks is an unconventional ace, but still an ace, and I think Davis may continue last year's success if he can learn from Hendricks who is a similar pitcher. The Cubs are bucking the system by not relying on hard throwers, but it may work. Whatever concern there is over Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo's 2020 (and there is real reason for concern when you look under the hood), there is more reason to believe they will rebound. I'd still take this line-up over any other in the division.
2. Milwaukee Brewers: This team has a lot of ifs attached to it, but the biggest if (if Yelich will return to form) is quite likely given his hard hit rate last year and his huge spring. They also have a lot of versatility and a manager who handles that well to plug some holes. I would've felt more comfortable if someone from Urias, Shaw, and Arcia had a good spring. The left side of the infield is still a hole. But they have as good a 1-2 punch in the rotation and bullpen as anyone in the division. A lot of talk about Burnes and Woodruff, but I think Peralta is going to be the revelation this year. 
3. St. Louis Cardinals: I know a lot of folks are picking them to win the division after picking up Arenado, but I think this team has some serious questions in the rotation and line up. They probably have higher upside than any team in the division, but unless Nolan and Goldschmidt return to peak form, I have some serious concerns. Defense is still strong - even without Wong - and the bullpen is underrated. 
4. Cincinnati Reds: Any one of these four teams could realistically win the division, but the poor defense and poor offseason makes it hard to pick this team ahead of the rest. They have a lower floor. But Castillo and Gray are a strong duo in the rotation, and a return to hitting pitchers makes Lorenzen a greater asset. 
5. Pittsburg Pirates: This team had a narrow window of success, offset by the fact they never were the best team in the division, and tight coin purses and poor front office management destroyed any chance of success. To call their method tanking would imply their failure will improve their team. Hard to tell with the Pirates. Easy pick in an otherwise difficult division to judge.

NL East:

1. Atlanta Braves: This team has a lot in common with the Padres and White Sox: well stacked with young talent, complimented with other pieces, oh, and they have the reigning MVP in Freddie Freeman and he may not even be their best player, especially if Acuna continues to grow (which given his age is entirely plausible). Their success will likely depend on the health of the rotation and the effectiveness of the bullpen as that's where my biggest concerns lie.
2. New York Mets: This is a strong team. Like the White Sox I have some depth questions, but they have a lot of imposing bats, probably the best pitcher in the game right now in deGrom, and made an underrated pickup in McCann at catcher. As imposing as they are, they still are without Thor who will be returning to them midseason. A strong return to form by Lindor (which is a reasonable ask) will go a long way. One more solid addition this offseason probably would have made them division favorites. 
3. Miami Marlins: Call me crazy, but I'm predicting another step forward for the team whose 2020 playoff birth was written off more than any other. With a return to the old playoff format I don't expect them to make the playoffs, but I think another winning season is probable. They did not suffer a horrible loss in the offseason and have an underrated rotation, and they have Sixto Sanchez in the wings. The biggest question mark is the line-up, which hardly inspires. But along with the Royals, this is my dark horse team for 2021. 
4. Washington Nationals: This team feels like the National League's version of the Angels in their inability to form a complete team around elite players. They have perhaps the greatest hitter in baseball in Soto, who is still just 21 years old! His patience reminds many of Barry Bonds, his rapidly increasing skill into the top Escalon reminds me of Miguel Cabrera. Add to that Trea Turner, who may be one of the most unappreciated players in baseball (not because he's not a star, just not recognized for how big a one he is) and this team should be a top the division. But Strasburg cannot be counted on for a full season, Scherzer is 37 and finally showing it. Corbin gets by more than he should and the rest of the team looks like spare parts. That makes this team hard to predict. They should be better than at least the Marlins, but I'm gonna predict a Red Soxesque fall from World Series to irrelevance in 2 years.
5. Philadelphia Phillies: In what way is this team better than the team that has hovered around .500 the last few years? More of the same, but a year older. Add to that the upward trajectory of other teams in this division and they make my pick for last in another tough division. Though I admit the Marlins could be in this spot.

NL Wild Cards: Padres and Mets. The second Wild Card is hard to predict. The NL Central though feels like such a competitive division (not counting the Pirates) that whoever comes in second is not likely to be as good in the standings as the number two teams in the West and East.

Playoffs:

Wildcard Games: the one thing I will miss from 2020 was the expanded playoffs, most importantly the fact that we had more than a one and done series. The Padres are in my view the better team, but in a one game playoff I'm taking the team that can put deGrom on the mound. Mets over Padres.

In the AL I'm gonna return to my big pick from last year and go with the Blue Jays over White Sox. If the Sox won the Central, I might pick them for the World Series, but in a one game playoff Ryu can match Giolito but the Jays have the more electric line-up. 

Division Series: Yankees over Twins. Until they can show they are able to win a playoff game (especially against the Yankees whom they've lost 16 consecutive playoff games against) I'm not betting on the Twins, no matter how good they are. Meanwhile I will keep my prediction of the Blue Jays strong as I pick them to defeat whatever the West throws at them. So we'll say Jays over A's.

Dodgers over Mets: If they didn't have to use deGrom in a Wild Card play-in maybe I'd go Mets, but he might not get to pitch twice in this best-of-five series, so I'll go with the reigning World Series champs. Meanwhile the Braves will mark the end of the Cubs dreams of a dynasty team. Braves over Cubs.

Championship Series: The Blue Jays are the kind of line up that reminds me of the Royals during their back-to-back World Series years: able to make a rally at any moment. A big inning team. But the Bronx Bombers are a serious power threat and have the better rotation (if healthy) and a shut-down bullpen (if healthy). So I'll take them, but assume it will be a close series. In the end though, Yankees over Blue Jays.

If for nothing but spite alone, I will again vote against the Dodgers even though they have the best team in baseball and are coming off a World Series victory. I have no good reason except that spite and belief that the Braves may be better than we've seen to date and have more motivation to improve at the deadline than the Dodgers who with their World Series victory in hand have less reason to bet the farm. So a rematch of the '96 and '98 World Series will be in order as I select the Braves over Dodgers.

World Series: I would love to see both of these teams return to the big stage. Who do I pick? While I would want history to repeat itself and see my Yankees reclaim their title for the first time in over a decade, I'm gonna imagine that beating the best team in baseball fuels the Braves to write a new chapter in the history of these team's face-offs with a World Series victory going to Atlanta over New York.

Awards:

NL MVP: Manny Machado. I first picked Soto, so he's my main backup. Arenado could win it with a big year. Yelich will probably be back in the top 5. As could the likes of Betts, Tatis, Acuna, Bellinger, Seager, and Freeman. But Machado's mashing may have easily been missed last year in a shortened season. Over 162 games he would've hit .304/.370/.580 with 43 homers and 16 stolen bases. The Padres are likely to get more attention this year too, which will help him make his case. My dark horse candidate will be Eugenio Suarez.

AL MVP: Mike Trout. Why bet against him when you know he's gonna be in the top 5 right? It's crazy to think that Ohtani and Rendon could also be candidates and yet the Angels are still a fringe contender. Jose Ramirez is my main back up though. Don't forget about Bregman. My dark horse is (if you can call him that) is DJ LeMahieu.

NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom. I used to always pick Kershaw, now it's deGrom. The guy just keeps getting better. I expect guys like Buehler, Snell, and Flaherty to be in the race. Don't be surprised if Corbin Burnes is in the race too. But my dark horse is Julio Urias.

AL Cy Young: Shane Bieber. He led the AL in WAR, ERA, K's, and k/9 (among starters) and was second in WHIP and innings pitched. Plus he pitches in an underwhelming division. So I'm going to go with him. Giolito is my back up after he showed last year that he is a true ace. My dark horse is Jesus Luzardo.

NL ROY: Ke'Bryan Hayes. Hayes has several things going for him: he has a high floor because of his great defense, and he plays for a non-contender that has no reason to bench him if he goes through a slump which gives him a chance to play out a full season worth of counting stats. But add to that his explosion on the scene last year (which exceeded expectations) and there is reason to believe he will be the Pirate's best player, which could earn him an All Star selection and garner more national attention needed to be voted top rookie. Just to show how good he is: this guy produced 1.9 WAR in just 24 games last year! My backup is Ian Anderson. Dylan Carlson and Christian Pache will probably be in the conversation too. As a dark horse, MacKenzie Gore will probably be a part of the Padres' success this year.

AL ROY: Bobby Witt Jr. He had a huge spring and is probably just waiting for service time manipulation date to be called up. Andrew Vaughn will probably be in the conversation and has the advantage of making the opening day roster (kudos to the Sox for putting the best product out on the field from day 1). A lot of folks are picking Randy Arozarena, and I don't imagine it will be long before we see Jarred Kelenic. My dark horse is Casey Mize who made the Tiger's roster.

NL Manager of the Year: Craig Counsel. CC is bound to win this award at some point. This is an ideal year for unorthodox managing of pitching, and no one may do that as well as CC. David Ross, Brian Snitker and Jayce Tingler will be considered if they make playoffs. Dave Martinez is a perennial candidate. My dark horse is Don Mattingly.

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon. He has the name recognition, and if he can finally get the Angels at least close to the playoffs he'll probably be rewarded for not mismanaging that team. Boone, Montoyo, and La Russa stand out as real possibilities. Dusty Baker will deserve it if the Astros put things together. Don't sleep on Terry Francona, he's my sleeper candidate (if you can call him that).

NL Comeback player of the year: Christian Yelich. There are a lot of options after 2020 had so many players off. Bellinger and Arenado come to mind. Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez too. But Yelich seems the most likely to not only bounce back but climb to even greater heights. For a dark horse, Tommy Pham, since he's not as recognizable as the other names here.

AL Comeback player of the year: Trey Mancini. The guy didn't get to play last year, and his return to baseball is a triumph alone. Which means he has the people's hearts. His isn't a comeback from underperformance, but from health issues. Plus he may be dealt to a contender midseason and help push a team over the edge. JD Martinez and Andrew Benintendi also make sense on this list. As do Altuve, Correa, and Bregman. For a dark horse, let's wrap this post up by going with my boy Kris Davis. 

That's all, hope you enjoyed this. Hope I'm right!