Let's just point out a few things:
-People think there is already too much money in sports. And as such they hate seeing players get huge contracts (even though ownership still largely holds tons of green behind the curtain). With no salary caps and a strong union, the perception of greed is a huge turn off to tons of fans. Therefore, whenever money becomes holdups in the game - to a team pushing to get over the hump in competitiveness, when a player leaves for greener (pun intended) pastures, or labor disputes - fans get furious.
-add to that the diminishing interest in baseball. Some of this is to other sports, but some to other industries such as gaming and media that have exploded among newer generations of fans.
-then on top of this you have the commissioner's failed attempts to make baseball more exciting, yielding minimal gains at the cost of massive frustration to current fans.
-don't forget about a Covid shortened 2020 season that forced us to spend half the year without baseball and the other half less interested. Oh, and it featured more rule changes that fans hated.
-then throw in a couple scandals, like back-to-back World Series teams being investigated and penalized for electronic sign stealing and the realization that a great number of pitchers are using sticky substances to alter their grip and spin rate. And for good fun we will put as a cherry on top the fact that MLB handled that issue horribly too.
In short, Major League Baseball has not had a good run in recent years, and the blame is aplenty.
Now enter 2021-2022 Offseason, in which just when the offseason was starting to get interesting the owners issued a lock-out due to the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) and the inability of the League and Players' Association to negotiate a new one. This was supposed to help with leverage and maybe speed things up, but those same owners then proceeded to drag their feet in meetings for negotiations. Now we are told we have until the end of February, then any delays will result in canceled regular season games.
Now all of the sudden there are regular meetings between the two sides.
How ridiculous does this sound?
I love baseball's offseason, because so much activity happens and teams are filled with all sorts of possibilities. The reset button is hit and hope comes back alive for fans. But instead of that, most fans have sat around twiddling our thumbs wondering if there is even going to be baseball. Perhaps the MLBPA and the MLB owners and commissioner have not yet realized how desperate the situation is. Neither of them can afford to lose games over the CBA negotiations. The impact this has on the game that is already in a rough spot cannot be overstated.
Therefore it is up to me to save baseball for us fans. I have decided to arbitrate the matter based on the reports of the most recent negotiations. Since they cannot decide and in some areas are worlds apart I will close the gap and settle the matter so we can get on with some baseball.
Minimum Salary: MLB wants 640k rising to 680k by 2026, the PA wants 775k rising to 895k, a 135k to 215k gap.
My ruling: No player is cut out of the massive revenues quite like the guys making the minimum. In this area I am all for the players and rule entirely in their favor: 775-895k!
Competitive Balance Tax: MLB 214mm rising to 222mm with harsher penalties for overages, MLBPA 245mm rising to 273mm. A 31-51mm gap.
My ruling: Nothing hurts free agent spending like this, but when you look at the still sizeable gap in spending power that already exists between small and large market clubs it seems hard to justify such a significant raise as the MLBPA is seeking without furthering the feeling of haves and have nots. I am siding more in MLB's favor therefore, with a 222 million starting point rising 5mm a year maxing at 242 in 2026. However I am not granting MLB stricter penalties for overages. Teams already respond accordingly to the current penalties.
Pre-arb Bonus Pool: MLB 20mm to be distributed among top 30 pre-arb players, MLBPA 115mm among 150 top players. A 95 million and 120 player difference .
My Ruling: having limited the earning power of free agents with the CBT, it's absolutely important that the pre-arb players be prioritized. Therefore I am again ruling in favor of the MLBPA, at 90mm (a reasonable rate of 3mm per club) for the top 100 players.
Super-two Eligibility for Arbitration: MLB Top 22% of 2+ years service time, MLBPA 75%. A 53% difference.
My ruling: The name of the game for this CBA arbitration is get the poorest players paid. If MLB wants to maintain control of overall spending that especially impacts the free agent market then players should get more money sooner. I award MLBPA the full 75%.
Service Time Manipulation: MLB offering draft picks to teams whose players finish in top 3 for major awards, MLBPA wanting a full year of service granted for top finishes, with openness to draft picks for team.
My ruling: While it is my opinion that both of these proposals are lacking since they only incentivize not manipulating the service time of instant stars instead of any player, you work with what you get at the negotiating table, so I will accept both proposals. The teams get extra draft picks to incentivize putting their best young players on the field while the player receives the full year if he's good enough even if his team tried to hold him back.
Anti-tanking Measures: MLB lottery for top four picks, MLBPA top seven with exclusion for multiple finishes below thresholds based off of market size.
My ruling: Given that usually 2-3 teams are tanking at any given time a top four lottery seems too small. I agree with the top seven lottery. I also agree with an exclusion from the lottery for teams that fall below a threshold for 3 or more years (2 is too short of a window to sometimes turn a franchise around). Additionally, it will only be different for large market teams if their spending is below a certain threshold, since a team could very easily be bad and have difficulty changing course if they have too much salary tied into players who rapidly declined.
Revenue Sharing: MLB no changes, MLBPA 30mm reduction.
My ruling: This is an instance where I stand with MLB. Being a fan of a small market team I've seen the fruits of revenue sharing. While MLBPA might be sour about how some small market teams have spent it, a reduction does not improve spending on players but only hurts them, especially as long at the CBT threshold stays lower. Therefore there will be no change.
Expanded Playoffs: MLB 14 teams, MLBPA 12 teams.
My ruling: While I did like some things about the bracket system we saw in the 2020 playoffs, we also saw sub-.500 teams in the playoffs (my Brewers included). That really is kind of a joke. We don't need nearly half the league in the playoffs. MLBPA is awarded the 12 team recommendation.
Universal Designated Hitter: Both sides are in agreement.
My ruling: both sides are wrong. I would be open to new ways of determining if there is a designated hitter, such as there only being a DH as long as the starter remains in the game or the DH being determined by each individual team for their home games (at either start of the season or series by series). But a plain old universal DH brings down the strategy of the whole game.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT
This CBA would grant real wins to each side. MLB gets what it primarily wants which is the tax threshold kept relatively close. MLBPA on the other side will advance the salaries of a massive number of players, arguably those who need it most. Additionally, the massive increase in super-two players and base salary will push up arb numbers and cause more non-tenders to allow players to reach free agency faster (along with fighting against service time manipulation that also will get players to free agency faster). Not only will this benefit controlled players, but it help close the gap between middling free agents and replacement level players, which should increase the value of such free agents as the alternative will no longer be as cheap. The biggest question I cannot answer is how much will these increases matter towards the tax thresholds for most teams.
So there you have it. I just saved baseball for 2022. You're welcome.
