Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Baseball has a major offense problem

 Can we bring back steroids yet? Well, maybe that's not the best idea. But seriously, something has to be done. In general offense is down. Baseball has for a while become plagued with the 3 true outcomes: walk, strikeout, or a home run. It's part of what is making the game so boring to even long time fans. Well, that and dilly-dallying between pitches

Who's the culprit? You have Major League Baseball's not so brilliant idea to remove the most exciting of the 3 true outcomes by deadening the baseball. That seems to have worked, although it may also be the new seams on the ball possibly improving pitcher's grip as strikeouts have increased to historic rates.


It could also be some teams are just taking a bad approach at the plate this year. Take my Brewers for example who are taking a ton of pitches only to rank near the top in strike outs, near the bottom in slugging and OBP, and in the middle of the road in walks. That may be a wider trend. The Brewers are a case-in-point to a
In over half their games this year, the Brewers
or their opponents have scored 2 runs or less.
wider injury issue
in MLB this year which could also be a factor when lots of regulars are not in the line-up every day.

And then, of course, there is the fact that some teams (my Brewers included) have looked noticeably worse on offense since the Astros/Red Sox sign stealing scandal broke and MLB made clear the severity of its enforcement to any team that is caught. Could it be that the bigger issue is that this was a more common issue than we outside the industry realize?

I'm not sure. The truth is it probably is a combination of these. But something has to happen. Should it be moving the mound back? It would probably have the desired effect of more contact and in-game action. But what will it do to breaking pitches? I imagine things might get a little Colorado Rockies really fast.

All I know is that after a Covid-shortened season, this was not the year to deaden the ball. All I know is baseball is back and boring as ever. And I love baseball. I love pitching duels. But when it becomes the norm it doesn't work. The excitement of a pitcher's duel is when it's out of the ordinary. That the game seems turned on its head and instead of being about a team stringing together hits it becomes about two guys on the mound. That's awesome. But that's not what baseball should always be. Because once high strikeouts and 1-0 games are no longer special, they become slow and lack energy. It's an uneventful game instead of a testament to two guys rising above the game.

I'm a baseball hungry fan, who felt starved last year like never before. Somebody start feeding me runs please.

But not artificial ones either. Yes I'm talking about the new runner on second extra inning rule. Anecdotally it doesn't seem to me to be helping speed up extra inning games. But it also feels like a genuine manipulation of the game itself. I hate-hate-hate the rule. Much like I hate-hate-hate 7-inning double headers (though I understand why we have them in the days of Covid, but please take them away next year). Seems pretty sucky that we'll never know if Madison Bungardner would've finished a no-no.

The point is it's hard to say what is killing the game faster: the way it's played or the rules that are meant to manipulate how it is currently being played. It means baseball has a real problem, and it might take more than a rule change to fix it. 

But please, please, fix it soon!



Wednesday, March 31, 2021

2021 MLB Predictions


 

Alright readers, we are on the cusp of a new season of baseball! After the unfortunate shortened season of 2020 it's time for 2021 and a return to some more normalcy. And with a new CBA around the corner there are ill omens of a possible work stoppage in baseball's future so let's really enjoy this season (can I get an "amen"?).

AL West: 

  1. Oakland Athletics: I've doubted them for too long. This team is better than it looks. They've performed in a very consistent winning percentage the last couple years, and have a star in Matt Chapman with some solid pieces to compliment. I also like the upside of the pitchers.
  2. Los Angeles Angels: With Rendon and Trout the floor is gonna be low. The only question is if they can ever piece together a group around them. I'm confident enough, especially with the decreased quality of the division that they have a better shot this year.
  3. Houston Astros: A lot will depend on how well their hitters - particularly their infielders - will rebound. More upside to this team than any other. But losing Verlander is a huge blow. I like the Odorrizi singing. 
  4. Seattle Mariners: This team has a lot of unproven talent and could one year surprise and put it all together. They have some of baseball's best prospects plus reigning ROY Kyle Lewis, so things are looking up. But I think we're still at least a year away from being in the upper half of this division.
  5. Texas Rangers: Sorry to say this looks like a sad state team. They look worse than they did before (yikes), although I think Kris Davis may have a big rebound year for them. I hope so, I've always been a huge fan. Joey Gallo is as good of a 3 true outcome player as there is.
AL Central:
  1. Minnesota Twins: They've been real strong for three of the last four years. They're young and talented and still got some team depth and payroll flexibility. Maeda is probably in for some regression, but he's still good (I always thought it was crazy that LA would not start him more). They're gonna miss Rosario. And if Donaldson and Cruz show their age things could be much worse than it looks.
  2. Chicago White Sox: Before Eloy's injury I had them as first in the division. They have a really talented team and it is really young with room to be even better. I really like the team that's been constructed. But depth could be an issue.
  3. Kansas City Royals: I'm betting on the Royals bucking the system once again. This is a team that dances to its own tune in baseball and has succeeded by doing so. I really liked their offseason. It wasn't ridiculous, it wasn't loaded with expectations, but it quietly improved a quality (if unspectacular) young team. The rotation will be an issue.
  4. Cleveland Indians: So I'm taking a risk and predicting this team will not keep over-performing. The Indians have managed to be relevant for years. But I think the Lindor dud of a trade will really bite them, especially since they shipped Carrasco with him. They somehow always have the pitching no matter who is gone, but I think they will be sorry. Bieber is a beast though and Ramirez is under-rated by fans.
  5. Detroit Tigers: Still a basement team, but man they might be the White Sox in a few years. Here's to hoping Miggy has a good year. He could reach 3k hits and 500 home runs this season! I'm glad Hinch was hired as their manager, he did not deserve to be out of baseball forever with the Houston sign stealing scandal since all reports indicate he knew about it but was unhappy with it. He should be a good fit for this team.
AL East:
  1. New York Yankees: Injuries are a concern, this team has a lot of volatility because of it. But they are still the Yankees and I'm a believer in the rotation's upside. Loved the LeMahieu deal for them. They may be running out of years where they are in the top 2 of this division. But Cashman knows how to GM this team well, and there is some solid depth to go with the oft injured star power.
  2. Toronto Blue Jays: An excellent line up with a solid if unspectacular rotation (especially after Ryu). This team reminds me of some of the past Yankees teams, and like them, I imagine they will be in contention if not the playoffs.
  3. Tampa Rays: Losing Snell is going to hurt. Though like the Indians and A's, this team has played better than they should and is a sum of its parts. Still, their method of trading stars while still in the realm of contention is a dangerous gamble and I'm betting against them.
  4. Boston Red Sox: Kind of a team stuck in transition. They don't strike me as good enough to take the division, though they could be in contention by the break. But more likely they look like a team ready to sell off more parts at the trade deadline to restock a depleted farm system.
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Not a lot of hope for this current roster. Especially since some of its legit performers like Mancini will very likely be traded at the deadline. The pitching may be unproven, but there is some talent there and I expect at least one breakout this season, though this team has been really bad for sometime in developing talented pitchers into quality major leaguers (as evidenced by the success so many of these guys have found after leaving Baltimore).
AL Wild Cards: Toronto and Chicago. More complete teams than the other options. Both have a strong chance to take their own divisions so I'll pick them. 

NL West:
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers: They are deep and talented. Winds of change may be coming in regards to who is king on the West, but not this year. Bauer is a wild card, he could be an ace or he could be just good. Bellinger will be a beast again. This team is strong in every facet of the game and resourceful in prospects and cash.
  2. San Diego Padres: I would be expecting some regression except that Preller put the pedal to the metal and really strengthened an already good team this offseason. To think he was able to do that and still maintain several of baseball's top prospects is amazing. Tatis is the most exciting player in baseball and plays a premium position. I expect Darvish to regress some, but he's still a clear upgrade. Musgrove, though he came with the least fanfare, may be the most surprising improvement. He had a career year last year and is 28. 
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks: This team is probably better than they were in 2020 but worse than they were in 2019. But the team is solid not spectacular and has more chance to fail than exceed expectations.
  4. San Francisco Giants: This team could build off of last year and actually be a winner (not contender, but on the right side of .500), but Longoria, Belt, Posey, Dickerson, and Crawford are all a year older and the rotation isn't formidable. So I'm betting against.
  5. Colorado Rockies: Sold low on Arenado, will almost certainly sell off Story before season end, and the good pitchers of a few years ago are looking as susceptible to Coors air as we've grown acustomed to. 
NL Central:
  1. Chicago Cubs: I know they had a terrible offseason, and their rotation took a huge hit, but they were good even when their core guys were awful last year. Hendricks is an unconventional ace, but still an ace, and I think Davis may continue last year's success if he can learn from Hendricks who is a similar pitcher. The Cubs are bucking the system by not relying on hard throwers, but it may work. Whatever concern there is over Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo's 2020 (and there is real reason for concern when you look under the hood), there is more reason to believe they will rebound. I'd still take this line-up over any other in the division.
  2. Milwaukee Brewers: This team has a lot of ifs attached to it, but the biggest if (if Yelich will return to form) is quite likely given his hard hit rate last year and his huge spring. They also have a lot of versatility and a manager who handles that well to plug some holes. I would've felt more comfortable if someone from Urias, Shaw, and Arcia had a good spring. The left side of the infield is still a hole. But they have as good a 1-2 punch in the rotation and bullpen as anyone in the division. A lot of talk about Burnes and Woodruff, but I think Peralta is going to be the revelation this year. 
  3. St. Louis Cardinals: I know a lot of folks are picking them to win the division after picking up Arenado, but I think this team has some serious questions in the rotation and line up. They probably have higher upside than any team in the division, but unless Nolan and Goldschmidt return to peak form, I have some serious concerns. Defense is still strong - even without Wong - and the bullpen is underrated. 
  4. Cincinnati Reds: Any one of these four teams could realistically win the division, but the poor defense and poor offseason makes it hard to pick this team ahead of the rest. They have a lower floor. But Castillo and Gray are a strong duo in the rotation, and a return to hitting pitchers makes Lorenzen a greater asset. 
  5. Pittsburg Pirates: This team had a narrow window of success, offset by the fact they never were the best team in the division, and tight coin purses and poor front office management destroyed any chance of success. To call their method tanking would imply their failure will improve their team. Hard to tell with the Pirates. Easy pick in an otherwise difficult division to judge.
NL East:
  1. Atlanta Braves: This team has a lot in common with the Padres and White Sox: well stacked with young talent, complimented with other pieces, oh, and they have the reigning MVP in Freddie Freeman and he may not even be their best player, especially if Acuna continues to grow (which given his age is entirely plausible). Their success will likely depend on the health of the rotation and the effectiveness of the bullpen as that's where my biggest concerns lie.
  2. New York Mets: This is a strong team. Like the White Sox I have some depth questions, but they have a lot of imposing bats, probably the best pitcher in the game right now in deGrom, and made an underrated pickup in McCann at catcher. As imposing as they are, they still are without Thor who will be returning to them midseason. A strong return to form by Lindor (which is a reasonable ask) will go a long way. One more solid addition this offseason probably would have made them division favorites. 
  3. Miami Marlins: Call me crazy, but I'm predicting another step forward for the team whose 2020 playoff birth was written off more than any other. With a return to the old playoff format I don't expect them to make the playoffs, but I think another winning season is probable. They did not suffer a horrible loss in the offseason and have an underrated rotation, and they have Sixto Sanchez in the wings. The biggest question mark is the line-up, which hardly inspires. But along with the Royals, this is my dark horse team for 2021. 
  4. Washington Nationals: This team feels like the National League's version of the Angels in their inability to form a complete team around elite players. They have perhaps the greatest hitter in baseball in Soto, who is still just 21 years old! His patience reminds many of Barry Bonds, his rapidly increasing skill into the top Escalon reminds me of Miguel Cabrera. Add to that Trea Turner, who may be one of the most unappreciated players in baseball (not because he's not a star, just not recognized for how big a one he is) and this team should be a top the division. But Strasburg cannot be counted on for a full season, Scherzer is 37 and finally showing it. Corbin gets by more than he should and the rest of the team looks like spare parts. That makes this team hard to predict. They should be better than at least the Marlins, but I'm gonna predict a Red Soxesque fall from World Series to irrelevance in 2 years.
  5. Philadelphia Phillies: In what way is this team better than the team that has hovered around .500 the last few years? More of the same, but a year older. Add to that the upward trajectory of other teams in this division and they make my pick for last in another tough division. Though I admit the Marlins could be in this spot.
NL Wild Cards: Padres and Mets. The second Wild Card is hard to predict. The NL Central though feels like such a competitive division (not counting the Pirates) that whoever comes in second is not likely to be as good in the standings as the number two teams in the West and East.

Playoffs:
Wildcard Games: the one thing I will miss from 2020 was the expanded playoffs, most importantly the fact that we had more than a one and done series. The Padres are in my view the better team, but in a one game playoff I'm taking the team that can put deGrom on the mound. Mets over Padres.

In the AL I'm gonna return to my big pick from last year and go with the Blue Jays over White Sox. If the Sox won the Central, I might pick them for the World Series, but in a one game playoff Ryu can match Giolito but the Jays have the more electric line-up. 

Division Series: Yankees over Twins. Until they can show they are able to win a playoff game (especially against the Yankees whom they've lost 16 consecutive playoff games against) I'm not betting on the Twins, no matter how good they are. Meanwhile I will keep my prediction of the Blue Jays strong as I pick them to defeat whatever the West throws at them. So we'll say Jays over A's.

Dodgers over Mets: If they didn't have to use deGrom in a Wild Card play-in maybe I'd go Mets, but he might not get to pitch twice in this best-of-five series, so I'll go with the reigning World Series champs. Meanwhile the Braves will mark the end of the Cubs dreams of a dynasty team. Braves over Cubs.

Championship Series: The Blue Jays are the kind of line up that reminds me of the Royals during their back-to-back World Series years: able to make a rally at any moment. A big inning team. But the Bronx Bombers are a serious power threat and have the better rotation (if healthy) and a shut-down bullpen (if healthy). So I'll take them, but assume it will be a close series. In the end though, Yankees over Blue Jays.

If for nothing but spite alone, I will again vote against the Dodgers even though they have the best team in baseball and are coming off a World Series victory. I have no good reason except that spite and belief that the Braves may be better than we've seen to date and have more motivation to improve at the deadline than the Dodgers who with their World Series victory in hand have less reason to bet the farm. So a rematch of the '96 and '98 World Series will be in order as I select the Braves over Dodgers.

World Series: I would love to see both of these teams return to the big stage. Who do I pick? While I would want history to repeat itself and see my Yankees reclaim their title for the first time in over a decade, I'm gonna imagine that beating the best team in baseball fuels the Braves to write a new chapter in the history of these team's face-offs with a World Series victory going to Atlanta over New York.

Awards:
NL MVP: Manny Machado. I first picked Soto, so he's my main backup. Arenado could win it with a big year. Yelich will probably be back in the top 5. As could the likes of Betts, Tatis, Acuna, Bellinger, Seager, and Freeman. But Machado's mashing may have easily been missed last year in a shortened season. Over 162 games he would've hit .304/.370/.580 with 43 homers and 16 stolen bases. The Padres are likely to get more attention this year too, which will help him make his case. My dark horse candidate will be Eugenio Suarez.

AL MVP: Mike Trout. Why bet against him when you know he's gonna be in the top 5 right? It's crazy to think that Ohtani and Rendon could also be candidates and yet the Angels are still a fringe contender. Jose Ramirez is my main back up though. Don't forget about Bregman. My dark horse is (if you can call him that) is DJ LeMahieu.

NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom. I used to always pick Kershaw, now it's deGrom. The guy just keeps getting better. I expect guys like Buehler, Snell, and Flaherty to be in the race. Don't be surprised if Corbin Burnes is in the race too. But my dark horse is Julio Urias.

AL Cy Young: Shane Bieber. He led the AL in WAR, ERA, K's, and k/9 (among starters) and was second in WHIP and innings pitched. Plus he pitches in an underwhelming division. So I'm going to go with him. Giolito is my back up after he showed last year that he is a true ace. My dark horse is Jesus Luzardo.

NL ROY: Ke'Bryan Hayes. Hayes has several things going for him: he has a high floor because of his great defense, and he plays for a non-contender that has no reason to bench him if he goes through a slump which gives him a chance to play out a full season worth of counting stats. But add to that his explosion on the scene last year (which exceeded expectations) and there is reason to believe he will be the Pirate's best player, which could earn him an All Star selection and garner more national attention needed to be voted top rookie. Just to show how good he is: this guy produced 1.9 WAR in just 24 games last year! My backup is Ian Anderson. Dylan Carlson and Christian Pache will probably be in the conversation too. As a dark horse, MacKenzie Gore will probably be a part of the Padres' success this year.

AL ROY: Bobby Witt Jr. He had a huge spring and is probably just waiting for service time manipulation date to be called up. Andrew Vaughn will probably be in the conversation and has the advantage of making the opening day roster (kudos to the Sox for putting the best product out on the field from day 1). A lot of folks are picking Randy Arozarena, and I don't imagine it will be long before we see Jarred Kelenic. My dark horse is Casey Mize who made the Tiger's roster.

NL Manager of the Year: Craig Counsel. CC is bound to win this award at some point. This is an ideal year for unorthodox managing of pitching, and no one may do that as well as CC. David Ross, Brian Snitker and Jayce Tingler will be considered if they make playoffs. Dave Martinez is a perennial candidate. My dark horse is Don Mattingly.

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon. He has the name recognition, and if he can finally get the Angels at least close to the playoffs he'll probably be rewarded for not mismanaging that team. Boone, Montoyo, and La Russa stand out as real possibilities. Dusty Baker will deserve it if the Astros put things together. Don't sleep on Terry Francona, he's my sleeper candidate (if you can call him that).

NL Comeback player of the year: Christian Yelich. There are a lot of options after 2020 had so many players off. Bellinger and Arenado come to mind. Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez too. But Yelich seems the most likely to not only bounce back but climb to even greater heights. For a dark horse, Tommy Pham, since he's not as recognizable as the other names here.

AL Comeback player of the year: Trey Mancini. The guy didn't get to play last year, and his return to baseball is a triumph alone. Which means he has the people's hearts. His isn't a comeback from underperformance, but from health issues. Plus he may be dealt to a contender midseason and help push a team over the edge. JD Martinez and Andrew Benintendi also make sense on this list. As do Altuve, Correa, and Bregman. For a dark horse, let's wrap this post up by going with my boy Kris Davis. 

That's all, hope you enjoyed this. Hope I'm right!

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

The Lord's Prayer on January 6, 2021

 


I'm usually hesitant to post anything too quickly, not wanting to speak too hastily on that which I know not enough of yet, but what I share I hope may be of help to others who are going through the same feelings as they watch on woefully. While it is rooted in my own experience and feelings I felt it could be of value to you. 

I had to go to the sanctuary to pray this afternoon, pray for our nation in distress. I pleaded much with God, but most of those prayers can be left between me and Divine. But I found incredible peace and voice to what I needed to say when I prayed the Lord's Prayer at the end. There, what started as a go-to prayer when praying (and if I'm totally honest, a bit of an afterthought), really became for me all the words I needed. Allow me to share in prayerful thoughts those emotions that raged as and after I spoke these ancient words that Christ himself gave us.




Our Father, who art in heaven...thank God I have a God. Thank you Papa God, that on a day when we need a leader, an authority to turn to, we have you. As I listened to the president speak, as I read his Tweets, I was more angry than comforted and more alone than united. But as I spoke to the heavens I remembered I was not alone, I had you. How great, O Lord, that you hear me. How important, when I am absolutely through with my leader to remember my true leader. And to not only remember you, but remember you as daddy, as one who has my interests at heart, who I believe loves me and gives a damn about what is happening. Thank you for listening. Perhaps all I needed to pray were these few words, but Lord, if it is ok I will continue as you taught me...

hallowed be Thy name...when I first got a live feed of the seditious protest gathered outside the capital, I cringed at a big "Jesus Saves" sign among the crowd. A classmate from college said he saw a big cross put up. Lord, your name is being dragged through the mud. I know it happens in many ways every day, including by me, I know I don't always represent you well or hallow your name. But as I saw your name, the name of our salvation, held up while our political process got held up, oh how I pray that your name would be hallowed among us. Oh how I repent of my own foolish use of the name of Jesus! Father - Papa - help us to glorify your name. Let our light shine before others, and let it not be dimmed by the false prophets who use it to their own ends. That same image of that sign keeps flying before my eyes, it must fly before your eyes too, right? How does it make you feel? I pray that you show the truth of who you are, of true holiness, and I pray that I might be a part of that. At the least, spare me from ever besmirching it before others.

Thy kingdom come, yes and come quickly. Our kingdom is in turmoil, yours promises peace. People are being injured in the name of our kingdom, people on both sides, your kingdom has no sides. It has no borders. It has no elections. Your kingdom is free from all this that assails our own. And this is supposed to be the best we have to offer? We are supposed to be the pride of human civilization? The pride of human civilization walked the streets with a healing touch, and taught me about a kingdom that is not of this world. The height of human achievement is what you achieved when you came as a human among us. So bring that same kingdom, in any portion you can, to us today. Maranatha! Lord Jesus, come quickly! Hosanna! Save us, O Lord!

Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven...yes and be done soon. I pray because I believe your will is for our good. I pray because I want your will to triumph. I pray because I see where our wills are getting us. We are better than this, but you are better than us! Your will is better than this. As I remain helpless in my little Wisconsin town, I turn to you whose reach can span the heavens and the earth. My thoughts reside with me, but my prayers ascend. They go to heaven, where you reign and I believe they fall to earth, heard by you who also reigns here. So reign Lord! Let your perfect will supplant the wills that do such wrong. "Though the wrong seem oft so strong" you are the ruler yet. I must believe it, because I refuse to believe that the wills of tyranny and sedition are the only wills on earth. I refuse to believe that the triumph of will is merely a triumph of power. I believe in that kings themselves fall before you, so why not those who stand above the government? 

Give us this day our daily bread...When I learned about this petition, dear Lord, I learned that authorities and society played a role. A stable nation made daily bread an abundance. At least it has for me. So when we see instability, what does that mean, O Lord? When our government is truly threatened, when the order of things are attacked, when things are being upturned will this reach me? If it does, may I not forget you, the giver of my daily needs. My bread comes not from my paycheck anymore than from my government. It comes from my God, and these are all means by which you provide me. So as we feel the trauma of political unrest, may you calm that uneasy feeling in my gut - the worry that tells me it is all being threatened. May you cure me of my idolatries that I may see them merely as arms of your gracious giving. Help me believe that you will give to me still. As I earnestly pray for so much, help me be at ease in all that I have in you.

And forgive us our trespasses as we forgive those who trespass against us...how hard it is to truly pray as you have taught us! How easy it is to condemn and to desire you put an end of the madness I am witnessing. But how hard to be a bastion of the peace of forgiveness. How hard to believe in repentance enough to forgive before one repents! How hard to look at those I disagree with in total love. Yet you have done that to me, and still do every time you forgive me. Help me desire this forgiveness so much, that I would do as you have taught me and forgive others just as heartily. Let me stake my own forgiveness upon it, not because my forgiveness earns yours but precisely because your forgiveness is so freely given that I might not misuse it by letting grace be in vain. Let that grace beget grace. Let me test the genuineness of my faith by the measure in which it wholeheartedly embraces your ways. And so, let me not sit in judgment but in forgiveness. Calm the hatred in my heart that I may not be so consumed that others pray against me. And let me be sure to pray then for those who stand against me this day. Let me be able to pray for them without in any way giving them an ounce of approval. Let me forgive them. 

And lead us not into temptation...some render this "save us from the time of trial", from the great testing that we might undergo, that is, help us, Lord, to not go astray. Do not just hear my prayers, grant my cries, forgive my wrongs, but help me also by keeping me from the wrong in all this. Am I not also flesh and blood? If I need forgiveness as I look on at our capital, I need guidance as well. Don't let this become an opportunity for the devil, for sin, for the wrong to conceal itself amid what is right. And do not let me go in the paths that destroy our world. Make me salt for the earth, and do not let me lose my saltiness. Make me an instrument. Make us instruments! Lord this whole time I pray to our Father. We who all need daily bread and forgiveness need guidance. Indeed, it was probably much these same worries that led my brothers and sisters down paths that I condemn. Rescue us all from this abyss. Help us who watch on and are consumed with emotion, and guide those who are working to bring a resolution, guide them in such a way that they not fall into temptations of any sort.

but deliver us from evil...to this end, may you keep people safe. I saw the stretchers, I saw the image of a woman taken away. I saw the halls filled with tear gas. People are suffering and hurting. Save them! Deliver us from the evil that injures the police. Deliver us from the need for brute force and stand offs. Deliver us, O Lord, from this day. Deliver us from the mess we have sown and are now reaping. Deliver us from our own sinful maneuvers. While people chant, politicians plead, and police warn - we pray. While all this goes down, we pray it stops.

For thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory forever and ever. Amen. Who else but you can I turn to now? And should I not believe that you care to hear us as we pray tonight? Is not this whole world yours? Help us, sweet heavenly Papa! I believe you will. For you have already helped me.

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Waiting on World AIDS Day 2020

 


I was looking for a good image for World AIDS Day for my Facebook earlier and I saw this and gave a little giggle. Why you ask? Well because in some ways I've given up on waiting for something like an AIDS vaccine. But in light of the blazing speed upon which we have seen a Covid-19 vaccine develop, the lack of a vaccine after all these years for HIV stands out all the more. Maybe it's because of the science of it all, and on a molecular level the virus is so different from that of Covid-19 it is unfair to wonder how one came out in a year while the other has taken forever and a day and still seems forever away. But I won't lie, part of me thinks the difference is that the brunt of the AIDS epidemic is taking place in Africa. That that is the determining factor. Part of me thinks this year shows what happens when the first world really does care about ending a virus. Part of me thinks the economic disaster that has been Covid-19 and the inconvenience that has been Covid-19 in these wealthy nations has been at the least what brought on a vaccine so quickly, if not shown why we haven't had one so quickly for AIDS. But that's just wondering. And don't get me wrong, I am thrilled there is a vaccine for Covid-19 coming, because we do need it. But I know that especially in some nations we pay less attention to, we really need an AIDS vaccine.

But in the US, AIDS isn't in vogue. It sounds stupid to say it that way, but it's true. Talk to AIDS related charities. Ask them if raising funds has gotten easier or harder. Part of this is because of good things: people with AIDS are living relatively normal lives more and more. The death rate has peaked and currently is in a downward trajectory. These are good things, and they no doubt make us collectively worry less about the virus. Science has made developments.

But on World AIDS Day, once a year we pause to remember it ain't over. Once a year we stop and realize that many are still being infected or dying. Once a year we remember that access to health care and medicine for people with AIDS must still be a priority. Once a year we take time to remember those we have lost already and still miss deeply. And in a year like 2020, where the rest of us are experiencing what it's like to be in an epidemic, to wait for a vaccine, to hope and lose people along the way, we perhaps realize just a bit more what a day like today is all about.


In many churches, we have begun a season known as Advent. It is a season of hope and expectation, a time to remember what it was for Israel to wait for their Messiah. It is a season to remember that the story ain't over till our Lord returns. Advent - which means coming or arrival - looks forward to the holy celebration of Christmas, when a long awaited hope first arrived and to the return of Jesus, when our Lord will arrive in glory riding on the clouds of heaven.

In some ways, that first arrival - while the wait seemed long to those Israelites who hoped in God's Messiah - it was like 2020 compared to those of us who have now awaited Jesus' return. And like an AIDS vaccine, we sometimes have been waiting so long we forget to even look for Jesus. And like a day that calls us to pause and remember, that's Advent in the church, it's the ecclesiastical reminder that Christ is coming. This is our hope. This is what we wait for.

Sometimes waiting for God feels long because of how desperately we need him, and even if the wait in the scheme of things isn't all that long, it feels that way. Sometimes we forget to wait, but then we remember, and in remembering we realize how much we still need him. The truth is, a lot of the Bible is people waiting for God. A lot of ministry is being with people waiting for God. It's learning to trust in him who promises, and join with those in celebration who have seen promise fulfilled - all the while believing that promise is a reassurance to us.

I guess that's the difference between my faith in God and my faith in the world. I see a Covid vaccine quickly coming and in no way feel closer to an AIDS vaccine. But I see God bringing healing to a bleeding woman and believe that speaks hope for me. 

We've waited for this covid vaccine. We're still waiting for an AIDS vaccine. We Christians have waited for Jesus for near about 2000 years. Some hopes have been realized. Some are still to come. But in it all, how preciously different a thing hope can be, even when we're waiting.

And of course, some things in life are worth waiting for.
Some things we wait for because we are dying without them.
In a year of waiting, empathize with those who wait.
In a year of hope fighting despair, learn the value of hoping.
And pause somewhere to remember where the journey has taken you, and where you hope to go...

Then perhaps we're ready to observe World AIDS Day in 2020. 

Sunday, October 4, 2020

A Short Treatise on Faith and Fear

 Introduction

It comes to pass from time to time that we must address the movements and voices that intrude the church and threaten to pervert its truth. As the slogans are seen and heard more and more in our communities it is time to address those messages that appear in all ways to be a faithful utterance but could at the same time be used to rather skew and distort the truth of God by false pretenses and assumptions of the neighbor unbecoming a Christian. Therefore let us examine the dangerous element of the "faith over fear" (or "faith not fear" or whatever other variation it manifests itself in) slogan and the presumptuous and false dichotomy it presents.

What is Right and What is Wrong

We must pause and first recognize what is good about this slogan that makes it so utterly appealing. To begin with, it calls for people in fearful times to turn to faith. This is a fundamentally good message and one God has often spoken to his people in the phrase "Do not be afraid". The overwhelming use of that biblical phrase and the obvious good in calling people to faith makes it appear to be a noble and Christian thing to proclaim. Yet there is a false dichotomy that is often implied that you must be afraid or faithful, not both. This is demonstrably false, not the least of which by the fact that God repeatedly tells people of faith "do not be afraid". But it also has been viciously used by those who, like the Pharisee who stands before God by gloating that he is not like that tax collector (Luke 18:11-12) seeks to make it out that she or he has done the faithful things while the other has not. This rhetoric has dangerously appeared in our day in relation to the corona virus crisis and in-person worship. 

Let our word be to those who have been taunted with this slogan: the pharisee will find no justification before God by decrying you. But you who from far off still dares to cry "Lord have mercy on me a sinner" will find the sweet comfort of the Gospel wherever you are (Luke 18:13-14). To those who champion this phrase beware from the parable, those who exalt themselves will be humbled! Let us look closer at how false it is to assume that only in-person worship is the faithful response and online worship is the "fearful" or antithetical to faith. Let us also examine closer that implied claim that concludes that an act that includes fear is automatically faithless as well.

Before going further we can graciously acknowledge two things: the first is that some have taken this banner up not considering this implication or meaning to demean others (though we should not fail to note that such intention does not always diminish the effect). Some we can imagine would use the phrase more to explain what has motivated them into certain actions than to make a judgment of others. Yet there are equally those who have heard them and perverted that purpose to not merely explain their resolve but to condemn the resolve of those who have differed. We should note this distinction of the two as we challenge this claim. And while this post shall be firm in our reply we must still be gentle personally with those who use it, especially keeping in mind our inability to always rightly perceive the intentions of any specific individual. Think the best of your brother or sister, after all, to us who have in faith chosen a different path that is what we ask them to do of us. And our Lord Jesus Christ has established this rule as one we would live by (Matthew 7:12). Also, this does not mean the faith over fear message has nothing to share to us who are not worshiping in person or are utilizing safe-guards they chastise. Being reminded to keep faith first is important, as is not being over-consumed in fear. But this treatise must address the way it has been used by those who puff themselves up over their sisters and brothers. It must address those who have felt the sting of shame from it and are looking for someone to raise high the message of faith among those who opt for safer ministries in this time. This writing is to give voice in our holy church to those actions of countless faithful Christians who are constantly being told they are not choosing faith and to say it on terms of common sense and scripture that those who choose to use this slogan against them be challenged to reply in more than a catch-phrase.

Fear is not Always Bad

Let us first strike a hole in the heart of the shame. The use of the word fear in contrast to faith is to not only invoke the "do not be afraid" as an over-simplified justification (we will address that error soon enough) but to make one easily feel less for their decision. No one wants to be afraid. We champion bravery. But tell me first does bravery involve no fear? Tell me that faith means never being afraid (again I say, why then are faithful people constantly afraid in scriptures)? Does wisdom involve no fear?

All this is plainly stated in the negative. Paul tells us to work out our salvation with fear and trembling (Philippians 2:12). Wisdom begins with "fear of the Lord" (Proverbs 1:7). "Fear of the Lord" is in fact an Old Testament phrase for faith. Why should we fear God? Because there is a healthy form of fear. And it is good for our faith to have a healthy fear of God (there is such a thing as an unhealthy fear of God, I would argue this could be seen in the early spiritual life of Luther) that we truly stand in awe of God and respect the Law and heed its warning and condemnation (which drives us to the Gospel). Healthy fear in life causes one to make wise decisions that safeguard us (or those around us) and a lack of it leads to reckless behavior. Thus many of our common sense decisions in life are driven in part by fear, and we acknowledge such as good. It is not a fear-no fear dichotomy that is presented in this slogan. It is rather a question of how much fear is healthy before it becomes unhealthy. No doubt those who banter on about faith over fear usually in some respect believe the safeguards others are doing are over-the-top. Yet instead of honest dialogue they retreat to unChristian characterizations. 

When someone gets sick they take medicine. When there is no medicine/vaccine, the medical community tells us the best way to combat the virus is to prevent its spread. Adopting methods to do so then ought not be dismissed out of hand. When a cancer survivor has tests every six months at the request of her doctor we do not say "you're being overly fearful" even if there is no physical indication her cancer has returned. We instead recognize that she is more at-risk for cancer to return and therefore her caution to try to catch it early knowing that grants her the best possible chance of success makes the action reasonable, even if we might roll our eyes at a perfectly healthy individual feeling the need to get a test every 6 months. We recognize the difference. When this virus poses a different risk of infecting others, and when many of the people who attend church are the most at-risk for a severe battle with the virus, safe-guards or even full on virtual worship should not be decried as "fearful" in a manner that suggests people taking extra precautions in this special instance is somehow unreasonable to expect. This is not just a common flu, something experts have said over and over from the beginning. Treating it differently is reasonable.

The church has made the error in the past of associating any form of "fear" or precaution with a lack of faith. It was not that long ago that many of our churches denounced life insurance as a failure to trust in God to take care of your loved ones and living in fear of what will happen to them when you die. Now all the bodies I know of that made that stance do not anymore, recognizing that one could want to take steps to look after their loved ones and be concerned about what happens when you die and still be faithful. Yet those who avoid gatherings to look after their elderly loved ones are now accused of fear and told to just have faith and return to church gatherings as though their concern is unwarranted and an afront to faith.

Let us then also here note that a lack of fear can lead us not to faith but rather temptation. Assuming one should be reckless (and to be clear, not everyone who uses faith over fear wants no safe-guards, but some recklessly do) in the name of "faith" is to test the Lord. This was the very temptation that Satan placed before Christ when he brought him to the pinnacle of the temple and told him to throw himself down for God's word said that he would use his angels to protect you (Luke 4:9-12). Let us not then assume that fear alone leads one to act faithlessly, but acknowledge that a lack of it can do the same. This again destroys the foolish dichotomy of one or the other, faith or fear.

A Word On "Do Not Be Afraid"

Since there is no doubt that one of the first responses to objections of "faith over fear" is the vast number of times God says "Do not be afraid". To this we simply reply that in these circumstances we will typically see that God is either a) seeking to comfort his people (as at his transfiguration, Matthew 17:7), or b) calling them to a faithful act that fear is preventing (as when he tells you to not fear those who can destroy the body only but to fear him who can destroy the body and soul that one not deny him before others, Matthew 10:28, 32-33). The opponents will no doubt raise the latter as precisely the point. But then we reply: demonstrate that God is stating our worship in this time must be in-person or without precautions like distancing or masks. If one declares that these are unfaithful, they ought prove it. For our part we will note that most of these same individuals likely did not disparage those Christians who were shut-ins and worshiped on radio or tv. In times of the plague whole towns would vacate to attempt to stave off the spread. That is, the closing of churches or the use of alternative means of worship when necessity demands it have been deemed in the past acceptable. Even most of the churches and people who take up this call were at some point during the corona virus pandemic not in-person for worship. And many, while not utilizing as many precautions as others are using safe-guards like safe-distancing. 

Be not afraid when used in this way must be able to demonstrate that fear is keeping one from being faithful. Otherwise they ought consider a slogan that better emphasizes the comforting element of the phrase, as we could all certainly be reminded of that. Since we have demonstrated that not all fear is akin to faithlessness it requires a greater demonstration that God would not approve of the church ministering in the manner it is during this time (either by distance worship or using various safe-guards). And such a demonstration will be forced to demonstrate how it has been acceptable to do such when circumstances have demanded it in the past but not now when our world is struggling to control a virus that not only kills, but makes many incredibly sick, and can leave chronic issues and permanent organ damage.

Fear is Not the Only Reason Churches Are Making These Decisions

As we have demonstrated that not all fear is antithetical to faith we ought also take note that those who make decisions to create safer worship environments (including virtual ones) can and often are being motivated by reasons other than simply fear. We might remember the people from the tribes of Reuben, Gad, and Manasseh who settled east of the Jordan (Joshua 22). Believing that one day those who lived in the boundaries of Canaan would not recognize them as fellow Israelites and declare they have no portion with the LORD, they built an altar to the LORD on their side of the river. It was not to sacrifice upon, but as a testament to their faithfulness. When the people to the west of the Jordan rose up against them in outrage assuming wrongly that they were abandoning the faith, they used it to call to them as a sign of faithfulness and the high priests were forced to conclude "Today we know that the LORD is among us, because you have not committed this treachery" (v31) and the people upon learning that they had misunderstood the intentions of their kin blessed the LORD and spoke no more words of hostility (v33). May those who have misunderstood us do the same, for it is faith also that can open one up to the possibility of alternative worship. It is the promise of God's abiding presence in transient times that causes us to dare to trust that we may find him still (Genesis 28:15-17). It is the assurance that Christ is with us in our ministries of proclamation (Matthew 28:19-20) that tells us the ministries we deem less to still be vital and Spirit-filled (1 Corinthians 12:4-25). 

Love of neighbor, the second greatest commandment (Matthew 22:36-40), apart from which the greatest commandment cannot be obeyed (1 John 4:21) asks us to consider the needs of others. Any church that makes decisions out of the well-being of the people it ministers to is keeping in the spirit of this command. We can demonstrate this by comparing the early church's concern for the economically vulnerable (Acts 6:1-4, Romans 15:25-26, 1 Timothy 5:16) to a concern in our day for the bodily vulnerable. Many congregations are made up largely of those who fall into high-risk categories. The church, even in its commitment to proclamation should see to their needs (see again the Acts reading above). Therefore efforts to safe-guard them in the midst of their proclamation are quite fitting. What is more is we are taught by Christ to see service done to the "least of these my brothers and sisters" as done to him (Matthew 25:40). Committees and individuals who are making these decisions are often noting these individuals or their own vulnerable family members. Should we call that fear? A colleague tells me how the church made the conscious decision to remain virtual, because forwarding the spread of the virus in their small community would negatively impact the already struggling small businesses around them. They looked after the community's needs while still worshiping God. Was that faithless? Was that fearful? Seems instead that they put their fears aside to tend to the worries and wants of others.

On Perfect Love

This would be a good time to address another passage, namely from the first epistle of John, "There is no fear in love, for perfect love casts out fear...whoever fears has not reached perfection in love" (1 John 4:18). While one may bend it to say "Aha! See, fear is cast out and has no place here." We reply that the context is very clearly one of fear of judgment from God, for it's fuller passage reads "Love has been perfected among us in this: that we may have boldness on the day of judgment, because as he is, so are we in the world. There is no fear in love, for perfect love casts out fear; for fear has to do with punishment, and whoever fears has not reached perfection in love." What is more is this perfect love that does not fear punishment is a love of God (and from God) manifested in our love towards our neighbor: "We love because he first loved us. Those who say, 'I love God,' and hate their brothers or sisters are liars; for those who do not love a brother or sister whom they have seen, cannot love a God whom they cannot see" (1 John 4:19-20). Thus this passage tells us to not fear judgment when we act in such love for our neighbor, but rather to know that just as much as our love of God can only flow from God's love for us, so our love of God must also flow into our neighbor. Christian love can be demonstrated in no greater way. Shall we then call activity done on our neighbor's behalf fear? No! We shall call it the perfecting of our love through faith in Jesus Christ. 

Fear Can Lead Churches to Be In-Person

The grave error of assuming that any choice to safe-guard worship (and especially to be virtual) is an act of fear is equally matched by the fundamental error of assuming that any decision to worship in person is out of faith or done fearlessly. Instead the only thing that may have shifted is what one is afraid of or how one intends to cope with that fear. The economic hardship nation-wide quarantines brought upon churches for example can cause one to brush past other fears out of the greater fear of closing the church. Similarly, churches that are worried of losing disconnected members or who have pressure from influential members and are accompanied with threats of leaving the church will open up for fear of shrinking member bases. In times of great fear people often lean back into their routines or habits as a coping mechanism. That is, opening up is a striving for normalcy precisely because one is afraid!

Stepping out can increase our fear and even lead to doubt and negatively impact our faith. Consider Peter who stepped out of the boat to walk on the water. His fear did not subside from that action, instead he (according to Christ) doubted and when returning to the boat was chastised for being of little faith. Additionally, those who remained behind were glorifying Christ as the Son of God (Matthew 14:22-33). While we ought not take this example too far, we can certainly see within it an antithesis to what is widely assumed by the faith not fear banner for churches to open their doors with abandon.

Now again we must pause and cautiously warn that we ought not assume these are the only or primary reasons people are calling for unrestricted worship. Nor should we make the equally false dichotomy that if fear was a motivating factor in their decision they are the faithless ones. Rather we should merely use it to recognize how wrong the presumptuous dichotomy of faith or fear truly is. We should not however think so much less of those who make these decisions as people of faith, especially where we are not privy to more specific information regarding the circumstances of their decision. We should realize that the political voices and the rapidly changing science leads to some to reject things even as they try to work things out in faith. We should be charitable towards one another, lest we bear false witness against them. May those who read this treatise not abuse it against their neighbor but use it when they are abused or to open their eyes to the folly of their abuse.

What Matters is the Proclamation of the Gospel

At the heart of this all is a commission to preach the gospel (Mark 16:15). There the Spirit works faith (Romans 10:17, John 14:26). There is Christ Jesus (Ephesians 4:11-16) and there we are to be found (John 8:31). On him and his message depends the very existence of the church (1 Corinthians 15:1-2). That is to say, what ought be asked in regards to the faithfulness of churches or individual Christians is their fidelity to the Gospel of Jesus Christ. Yet somehow we have made it about what voices of caution (or lack of caution) we are listening to in regards to our civic responsibility.

All of us ought to take the position of Paul who informs the Philippians regarding his ministry during imprisonment. While he is constrained to prison, he notes that he is still there able to do fruitful ministry among the guards (Philippians 1:13). Meanwhile, others begin preaching outside the prison (v14) and not all with the same or even honorable intentions (v15, 17). Yet none of these differences phase Paul in regards to how we are to regard the ministry. Instead he says, "What does it matter? Just this, that Christ is proclaimed in every way, whether out of false motives or true; and in that I rejoice" (Philippians 1:18). If some find themselves contained, others not; if some are doing ministry in a manner you suspect is by fear while you are not; if some are doing worship virtually while others are not "what does it matter?" For our answer ought be, "Just this, that Christ is proclaimed in every way...and in that I rejoice." Mission focused Christians in this time will ask how are people being reached with the comforts of the Gospel more than anything else. They will see in those who are doing what they are not another means by which the Gospel is being proclaimed. 

Diaspora Worship is Biblical

Finally, we will address specifically the practice of virtual worship. After all, we recognize especially in things like holy communion the shortcomings of this form of ministry. Is there a case for having such a worship?

To begin with we would note the development of the synagogue, which Jesus regularly worshiped and taught in (Luke 4:15-16). The synagogue offered an opportunity for regular hearing of the Torah. The Magdala Stone shows us how it was used as a means to harken people's faith to the Jerusalem Temple which because of its great distance would not be regularly worshiped in by Galilean Jews. While the sacrifices and major festivals were reserved still for the Jerusalem Temple (much like those of us who are reserving practices of Holy Communion for a return to in-person worship), the synagogue was an otherwise accepted alternative. Perhaps more important is its roots. They arose during the Babylonian Exile, when the Temple was in ruins and the people were not allowed to return to Jerusalem. It was in these circumstances that the synagogue became a part of Jewish religious culture, and for a time it was then the place of worship. Not only does Jesus partake uncritically in the practice, but the LORD told the people to settle during their exile and from there call upon his name and search for him and know that God would find them (Jeremiah 29:4-14).

We might also note the early church, as Christians were being expelled from synagogues (John 9:22) formed homes into places of worship (Romans 16:5). Indeed the Spirit descended on the disciples on Pentecost at a home (Acts 2:1-4) and upon God-fearing Gentiles during a sermon preached in the home of Cornelius (Acts 10:22, 44). The church has therefore not only also adapted in the time of need, but found the adaptation to not be wanting of God's gracious working. 

If these examples show us something of adapting due to circumstances, we must also say something about expressing the Gospel in isolation of one another. Here now the Word itself shows us something specifically of the grace of Jesus being shared in separation. Paul corresponds to numerous churches through the means of writing, never hesitating to share the grace and peace of God (Romans 1:7, 1 Corinthians 1:3, 2 Corinthians 1:2, Galatians 1:3, Ephesians 1:2, Philippians 1:2, Colossians 1:2, 1 Thessalonians 1:1, 2 Thessalonians 1:2). These words are not merely common salutation as we hold them to be sacred scriptures (2 Peter 3:14-16) that convey the Word of God (2 Peter 1:20-21). John on Patmos was not told that he was fearful and faithless for abiding by his exile instead of sneaking off to share his vision. Instead he was told to "Write in a book what you see and send it to the seven churches" (Revelation 1:11). It was not only in the face of changing worship circumstances that God chose to abide but also in distant sharing of the Gospel. 

Let Those who Disagree Put Away Their Pride

You will not justify yourselves by holding your great and puffed up faith over our scared little mustard seed of a faith. Even the prophet Elijah who bantered on about his great zeal for the LORD was greatly mistaken if he thought it would let him remain at Mt Horeb (1 Kings 19:14-18). Those who exalt themselves will be humbled (Luke 14:11), but he gives grace to the humble (James 4:6). The message is simple, we ought not boast of our faith as some game of king of the mountain upon which we declare ourselves king. In Christ such are toppled (Luke 1:50-52) while those who are poor in spirit and meek find themselves receiving the kingdom and inheriting the earth (Matthew 5:3, 5). As we have counseled those who agree with us or join in our practices not to look down upon you or make false assumptions of your reasoning, so we now counsel you to do the same. This treatise is to make clear that such dichotomies do not serve God's church, therefore let us do away with them. You need not agree that the best practice is for the churches to use certain safe-guards or remain virtual in order to put away the divisive and demeaning language of faith over fear. Let us all take a spirit of humility that regards our own pursuits of God, even the ones named and defended here, as folly save for God's gracious coming unto us. Let us empty ourselves of religious ambition and not regard ourselves more than others (Philippians 2:3). Let us go to what faith is truly about: how God comes to us in Jesus Christ. Let us hold fast to what is good and call one another to faith, but let us put aside the wasteful talk that has politicized our worship, as if siding for in-person or virtual worship is any true measure of faith. Let us instead ask ourselves to be sure to keep faith in those decisions and indeed every one. Let us instead ask ourselves to keep preaching the Gospel in every way. In a time where the church is struggling over the coronavirus to limit conflict, let us seek the better way (1 Corinthians 12:31-13:7). Let us avoid judgment lest we ourselves be judged (Luke 7:37-38). 

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

2020 MLB Playoff Bracket

 Of all the tragedy that 2020 has been to baseball (I have not felt so disconnected from the game since I started following in 2000) the one thing that I am excited for is the new playoff bracket system. Expanded playoffs should be interesting. And I am more than thrilled that the wild-card round is a best-of-three series finally. So while I didn't even venture to make predictions at the start of this shortened season I will throw my bracket out there.

Disclaimer: I realize that the AL already has played a game, but I will try to not let that alter my predictions that preceded them.

Wild-Card Round:

NL:

Dodgers over Brewers: If the Brewers win, not only would this easily be the biggest upset of the postseason but also would probably cause a lot of fans and writers to decry the entire new postseason system, since the sub-.500 team with terrible offense beat the team that was on pace for 116 wins. That said, anything can happen in short series and people should not underestimate that no team is hungrier for an upset than the Brewers who lost a heartbreaker wild-card game due to a fielding mishap last year and the year before lost a grueling 7-game Championship Series against none other than the Dodgers. That said, there seems little magic in this Brewer team and the Dodgers are the best in the league. I'd love the upset, but I'm betting Dodgers.

San Diego over St. Louis: The Pads are for real this team, and assuming the Brewers get eliminated they will be the NL team I'd like to root for this year. St. Louis is a team I have always warned not to dismiss because they sneak up on you, but I'm going with the better overall team.

Miami over Chicago: Here's my first upset prediction. The Cubs have Darvish and Hendricks, but we all know that Darvish has had some postseason blow-ups before and the Cubs offense has been abysmal. Add to that the fact that the Marlins have never lost a playoff series and I will give them the upper hand in a tough series.

Atlanta over Cincinnati: The offense of Atlanta against the pitching of the Reds. Usually in the playoffs you bet on the pitching, but I'm gonna go the other way because this Atlanta offense is so good. They'd be in a better place with Hamels and Soroka, but I'm not buying the predictions that say those are losses too great to make up.

AL:

Blue Jays over Rays: Let's start the AL off with an upset. The Rays are certainly a tough team with a tough rotation. But this is the best time for the Jays to play them, in a best of three. Having Ryu gives them a legit shot at one upper hand pitching matchup and their offense is young and could be electric through the postseason. All it takes is a spark. The Rays are hot, and they are the best in the league but I'm waving my Maple leaf for this one.

Yankees over Indians: The Yankees have a formidable top of the rotation to go with a strong line-up and the expectation to succeed. That culture of winning will help them trounce a deeper Indians rotation. This one will come down to line-ups and bullpen and I'd bet on the Yanks for that one.

Houston over Minnesota: So far I have chosen the lesser ranked seed each time and I'm choosing it again. It seems strange given how strong the Twins are, but a 16 game post-season losing streak is hard to swallow. While everyone is wondering if the 'Stros can do it without cheating, they have been here before quite a bit lately and Dusty Baker is one of the best managers in the game today and desperate for that elusive World Series victory. The Twins are built like a deep postseason team and I'd love to see it, but I don't think I will.

Chicago over Oakland: And with that I predict the lower seed in every match-up. The White Sox are 14-0 against left handers in the regular season and faced stiffer competition than the A's. This series is a bit of a coin flip for me, but I'll give the edge to the Sox.

Division Series Round:

NL:

Dodgers over Padres: I want it to be the other way, and I think the Pads have a real chance in this series, but I'm taking the Dodgers, particularly in regards to their superior pitching. But I don't think it will be easy, and I'll be cheering for the Friars all the way. Expect this series to go to game 5.

Braves over Marlins: Now I expect the Marlins to suffer their first ever postseason series loss. The Braves are just too good of an offense. And in a weird 2020 season I'm betting on offense over pitching.

AL:

Yankees over Blue Jays: Well...I'm also betting on pitching. The Yankees are the better team. If the Jays do advance though it will take a strong game 1 pitching performance to shut down the Jays' momentum and energy. Luckily you have Gerrit Cole for that.

Houston over Chicago: I did mention that the Astros have run this circuit before, and they have made it clear that they are a tough playoff team - even without the cheating. Pitching will be a real question. But this team wants to prove they are talented without the back-room sign stealing cameras and banging trash cans. I think they want it more.

Championship Series:

NL:

Braves over Dodgers: I don't want the Dodgers to win it again. So maybe this is wishful thinking, but I believe the Braves' offense is the one thing that can outhit the Dodgers, even with their strong staff. That said, I could easily see the Dodgers running over this team too. But if there is someone in the NL who can pull the rug out from under this monster team its the Braves and this is when they meet. Let's defy the experts and predict a different NL pennant winner.

AL:

Yankees over 'Stros: They are the complete package, and they're just as hungry to beat the 'stros after two straight years of the opposite. 

World Series:

YANKEES over Braves: a rematch over twenty years in the making. I don't however think it's going to go differently this time. Perhaps now is the time to say it: if they had Hammels and Soroka, perhaps things would be different.

NL Darkhorse: Cincinnati. While the Dodgers have the talent to be named as a back-up for the NL Champion, calling them a "dark horse" seems silly. The Reds on the other hand is a team no one is expecting to go deep but has the rotation to do just that.

AL Darkhorse: Blue Jays. I picked them over the Rays for a reason. As I said this is the season I'm gonna bet on offense. If they can knock out the Rays and the Yanks all other teams should be on notice.

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

re: no online communion

The practice of online communion for worship has grown in our church. I wrote up a piece some months ago for this blog about the issue but determined it was too long to post (like 11 pages single spaced) on why I would not do online communion. Nothing has changed in that regard. Allow me to try to share more briefly why. Please know this is in no way meant to attack those who have discerned to do so. I have quite high regard for many of them and realize the pastoral concern in their desire. I merely seek to share why I will have no part in the practice and why I find it so concerning in our church. I feel we have an obligation to share such concerns in an amicable manner, especially when they concern important matters of our ministry. I offer everything in the bonds of peace.

  1. Distance does matter. While there is no biblical or theological mandate saying "the distance of the hearing of the word to the people must not exceed..." it does matter. We know that, for example, by the fact that the words of institution must accompany the elements and distribution and that they were to be done loudly and not whispered. The emphasis in this was on the people's hearing. But it reminds us that these things rightly go together. How then do we determine when they are separated? Why is the amplification of a sound system to the back of the church or the narthex/basement of a full gathering acceptable but not online? Well, I think the very fact that one creates controversy while the others didn't suggests there is something fundamentally different. Online communion is more akin to situations of tv communion or phone communion than simply situations of amplification, and those are something we never suggested as acceptable even with our sick or homebound members. And I think the defining characteristic is space. While sound systems help share the word in the space where the people have gathered (including through walls), these other forms transmit to some other space. In short, the controversy comes when we transgress the lines of the gathered space. Digital gathering lacks the physicality of space, and the sacraments are by their nature a very physical and spacial thing. That is, according to Luther, part of their importance.
  2. The Corinthian controversy. I cannot get over the fact that Paul in 1 Corinthians 11 chastises the people of Corinth for partaking in communion in a manner where some are eating everything and some come and get nothing. The problem with digital communion is it expects everyone to have the elements to participate. Even if I were to drop off elements at all my members' homes we regularly get attendance from other individuals, sometimes states away. In worship we welcome all baptized believers to the table and let them examine themselves if they wish to partake. And if they in faith desire it we make sure they have access to the sacrament. In this, we cannot truly welcome them all to the table because not everyone may have access because they lack the elements. And I cannot stand the idea of making people watch themselves being excluded from the Lord's Supper because their grocery list didn't meet the requirements.
  3. Who is presiding (and what does that mean in this context)? Presiding over the sacrament has typically meant presiding over the entire act of consecration and distribution. In this context, the pastor could only preside over the consecration (sort of, since the pastor is not by the elements) and someone from the home would preside over the distribution. In our tradition, the act of presiding in the absence of the pastor is limited. It is limited to trusted individuals, often with the support not only of the congregation but the synodical bishop. There is some form of a call even if only a temporary one. In the case of online communion, a multitude of individuals are tasked, elected from within the home with no input by the wider church (congregation, synod, or otherwise). While on paper it seems like little could go wrong if directed by the pastor (after all, pastors give directions to individuals and congregations regarding communion all the time), a lot actually could with little to no accountability or oversight. Here are two simple examples:

    Jane decides to commune her cats, since they sit in worship with her as she watches each week.

    Bill has no bread and wine, so he opts for Snickers and Coke as elements.

    Now some pastors may not consider these as serious as I do. And yet they go beyond the bounds of what we would (or should) do in the sacrament had it taken place in person. The first is kinda sweet, but yet the sacraments are by all biblical indications for people only. The second shows the limits of adiaphora in the sacrament. For while we have some wiggle room in regards to the elements (unleavened/leavened bread or wine/grape juice for example) I do not believe we have unfettered freedom in regards to the elements where any substitute will do. And while Bill was doing the best he could (because he did not want to be excluded for not having the elements - see issue 2) how does one later say that may not have been the sacrament? Faithfulness to the sacrament I think goes beyond intention (which in both scenarios are good ones). The presider has a responsibility to see everything done according to the gospel so that there be no reason to doubt the sacrament or fear it being used in a manner that could cause offense. Whose responsibility is that? If it is mine (which I think it is), I do not feel I could do it adequately.
  4. We reject individual communion. To do this, some individuals who worship alone will be asked to commune themselves. Private communion as personal devotion is expressly forbidden within the Lutheran Confessions. Additionally, we have not ever encouraged our homebound members previously to commune themselves. Even in historical circumstances of isolation from church/pastors the Lutheran church has not advocated for self-communing but instead to rely on other means of grace. This was the primary response of our greater church at the outset of the pandemic: lean into the grace of the Word and your baptism. While online worship is a different context than say the lone-communing devotion in the Reformation times, I'm not sure we can simply assume communion in isolation to be now acceptable. And we still ought ask this question: does communion require at least two people? Does the other person being "on the screen" count? Consider especially how we've been able to identify (and have done so for years) the shortcomings of presence and relationship through digital means. Communion is a preached act accompanied by physical sharing. Jesus takes the bread, breaks it, and gives it to them saying... I think we are lying if we cannot admit already the shortcomings of digital media in conveying the preaching, how much more the physical sharing?
  5. Home churches and worship from home are not the same. A common argument is that the church met in homes for years. Why are we now insisting it has to happen in our building (especially when most pastors try so hard to say the church is not the building)? The answer is that there is a fundamental difference from worshiping from home and a home as a church: a home church was a home used as a church for any christian who gathered there. It was considered a public assembly even in a private home. Consider even the word the New Testament uses for church - ekklesia. The word was used for when people left the privacy of their homes to gather in a public space for an assembly. Worshiping from home is still by and large worshiping from the privacy of your own home not opening your home up to worship. We aren't usually inviting people (except maybe family), it isn't a designated gathering for the ekklesia - the church. It is a place where we are tuning into where the gathering is centered (and note, that centering is not the pastor but the Word. The church for this function has ministers, not the minister making the church). Consider especially the many church services that are not two-way media like Zoom but one way medium like a Facebook Live video. Everyone can in a way gather with me where the Word is being shared, but not I with them. There is also then a shortcoming of what it means to gather. We can connect - even meaningfully - but that is not the same as gathering. The myriad of people who desire our in-person worship to resume so they can be with their brothers and sisters, the years of shut-ins who tell you watching on tv is not the same all attest to the fact that whatever form of gathering or church is happening when we tune in, there is something gravely lacking. The biblical ecclesiology is not (as it is often miscast) "you are the church" but "you all are the church". You individually are but a part of the church as Paul says "you (plural) are the body of Christ and individually members of it."
  6. Perhaps it's better to refrain from the sacrament than doubt it or cause others to. Paul was glad he only baptized a few people in Corinth. It's one of the strangest passages in scripture unless we consider why; namely, baptism (and who did the baptizing) was part of the lines of division in the church. It is bad enough and grievous enough that the sacraments are one of the most clear areas of division in the ecumenical church today. When I consider that in recent years some of the greatest area of controversy in our denomination revolves around the Sacrament of the Altar I don't think it is good that we are adopting so quickly a new and highly debated practice. While our church embraces a lot of diversity in practice (even around the sacrament) our high view of the sacrament (right administration is one of the marks of the church) makes the wide embrace of any diverse practice essential in order for it to be embraced by the church. Splintered practice (which is different from diverse practice) sows the seeds of doubt for the community of faith, which is antithetical to the purpose of the sacraments. While uniformity is not the necessary answer, greater agreement on what practices are still "according to the gospel" is.
  7. There are other innovative methods that cause less offense. I realize part of this change in stance for some is because we are looking at the long haul. When my parish first canceled in-person worship, we did so for two weeks, fully expecting to be back for Palm Sunday. Then we realized it would stretch past Easter (I wept, literally wept, over not having communion for Maundy Thursday), then through April, then May, and all of June and now most if not all of July. The long game is part of why some are starting to say, "It's one thing to go a few weeks without communion, but now we're talking months." Luther said in the Large Catechism a Christian should desire the sacrament often. But he also said it should be according to our opportunity as well. Just as congregations at times have had to endure longer periods without the sacrament because the lack of a pastor kept them from the opportunity, so we should acknowledge that the age of Covid may limit our opportunities too. We should not be burdened by our inability to receive it. Communion is for us, not us for communion. Christ did not give it to be a burden. But also, as we pastors see the need (for Luther says we should receive according to need and opportunity) we may start trying to find ways to commune our brethren. But I would note that in our synod alone a myriad of means of communion have been experimented that far as I can tell carry far less controversy and concern as digital communion. This eliminates the right of necessity. Just as the church has not in extreme times in its past allowed private, personal communion out of necessity, so I do not see how we can claim necessity for digital communion when other means are available to us that would by their less offense be of greater value to the whole church. 
  8. We don't make communion. It is not our good pastoral intentions, nor our "magic hands" of the ordained, nor the deep faith of those partaking that makes communion what it is. It is Christ alone who can make communion what it is. Theology of the cross says we must lay aside our glory searching and test everything according to Christ and his cross that empties us of all spiritual innovation. This is why faithful administration is a big deal. It's not about some new form of legalism (which it can become). It must be about the only way we can trust in the sacrament is by trusting in God. And the best way to do that is faithfulness to the institution that promises us communion with Christ. That's why these things are so important to me. I do not doubt the wisdom, passion, love, or faith of those who suggest or partake in online communion. I do not doubt that people who have practiced it have found it to be meaningful. But our meaning is not what makes it what it is. No doubt those who practice online communion are leaning on this theology and the sufficiency of Christ's word wherever it is shared, but it also means that concerns around this practice are not small ones or to be dismissed. And arguments of intention, or not so much caring because one thinks Christ can accommodate it or other claims that minimize the concern will not suffice for me. Nor will arguments of adiaphora or diverse practice as this reminds us of the limits of such arguments in regards to that which Christ has commanded the church to do. 
While these words will perhaps feel as an attack by some, I submit them in a spirit of collegiality and a mutual desire to seek the good of the whole church as we discern this issue. Any argument I challenge that have been made by specific people is not meant to be a challenge of that person but merely to engage the arguments I have come across as this issue rages in our church. Perhaps I am on the wrong side of this debate, perhaps I too will be persuaded. Every pastor committed to the truth of the Gospel and the authority of the Word must be open to the possibility of their own error. But I respectfully submit these brief points to the table of discussion. 

***Later Addition: This post is intended to show the shortcomings of online worship regarding Holy Communion, and is not a condemnation of the practice of online worship itself. A defense of such can be seen in my post on faith and fear.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

HIV: The Choice of Safety or Secrecy

HIV Secret Files - Home | Facebook
I was in a conversation with fellow clergy today around the issue of re-opening. We realize that for most of our churches, we are still realistically some time away from being able to have in-person worship. As we discussed the myriad of dynamics at play here the conversation went to personal choice. Some of our members - indeed some of our pastors - are more vulnerable to serious even lethal outcomes from the Coronavirus. This led to how part of our future will also include personal choice. There will be a point where the government cannot blanket close so many institutions. That is a reality and in some ways a good one. We don't want to totally cripple our economy, close businesses for good, and leave people unemployed and impoverished (especially when so many are already in that boat). But when that happens it will leave the people whom safe-at-home most protected with a choice. And part of the message from those who want to re-open things are especially saying the choice should lie with the individual rather than be stripped from them by the government.

But the problem is there are all sorts of dynamics with that which don't make it as easy as saying it is just a choice. A person who chooses to stay home when the state allows them to go out will not qualify for the same benefits of economic security, making it harder to stay home. Some bosses, eager to get business flowing again, may not be so tolerant of those who choose to not come in or work from home, forcing a person to choose between their job and their life. These were some of the dynamics that ran through our conversation. But there is another one too that ran through mine, thanks to life in the AIDS community: some people will have to choose to either reveal things about themselves they don't want others knowing, or endanger themselves. 

Many people who are HIV+ have chosen to live in secrecy, not disclosing publically that diagnosis with others, sometimes even close family members. Even as someone who has been public since a young age about his status, I don't broadcast it as much as I once did, and I've had enough negative experiences to not blame a single person for wanting to avoid them entirely. Every time I tell someone I am afraid of experiencing another one, even though - God be praised - they are fewer and farther between. 

What this means is that as the world re-opens but the threat of Covid-19 continues, people with HIV (or other health conditions they don't want others to know about) will be asked to make a choice between safety and secrecy. 

Either you will rejoin the world to keep your secret, knowing that as an immuno-compromised person it may cost you your life or you stay home and become subject to the questions of why you are not going back to work, why you can't go to Bible study, what would make you think you need to keep distancing and isolating more than the rest. This is especially true for younger demographics since the statistics are otherwise so overwhelmingly in their favor in regards to the impact of Covid-19. Along with their peers who question why they don't share their "it's no big deal" attitude are elders who may look to them to essentially build up the herd immunity.

We might also note that some HIV+ people are also closeted members of the LGBT+ community, and the strong association many hold between HIV and homosexuality will no doubt raise questions that may put other secrets in jeopardy as well. Like Michael Scott unintentionally outing his accountant Oscar in The Office I shutter to think that we might do the same.

I have no solution to this dilemma, since as I said before we cannot remain closed forever. I merely bring it forward to raise awareness to something perhaps you haven't had to think about among the many things we are thinking about when it comes to re-opening our states. And to those who identify with this, whether directly or indirectly, so you know someone else is thinking about your worry and fear. May God truly be with you in whatever path you take.

The Mutant Registration Act | X Men Movies Canon Wiki | FandomAs an HIV+ person I always had an affinity for the X-Men. Many from outcast groups or groups that have experienced hate and prejudice do. I remember  where there was genuine fear over mutants in society and a desire to know who they were (the public felt they had a right to know who they were). The "Mutant Registration Act" was proposed. The secrecy that one held to themselves or their families - that they were a mutant - was threatened of being stripped away. For a lot of reasons that always resonated with me. And as this dilemma emerged in my head, the thoughts of that secrecy taken away again rises to the front of my mind. This time not in the form of government imposition, but, ironically enough, the opposite. When the government lifts its measures and we are more "free" to "choose", for some people the choice will be a different one. 

And a much more difficult one.