As I did
last year, I would like to take a second and suggest some last minute deals to improve several teams prior to the start of Major League Baseball season. None of my suggestions last year came about, although based on the performance of those players many should have. So let's look at some possible and slightly to far more improbable possibilities.
1. Pirates deal Wandy Rodriguez and Jose Tabata to Yankees for Ichiro and 500k: let's start with one that won't happen because it seems so odd. But there is good reason for this deal to happen. From New York's side they add a solid pitcher on short one-year commitment and a young, quality 4th Outfielder in Tabata. Rodriguez has had an ERA under 4 every season since 2008. The lefthander would be a nice replacement for the loss of Andy Pettite. While last year he dealt with injuries, prior to that he showed himself to be a rather durable starter. He's not a number one, but on the Yankees he'd slot in the 4 or 5 spot. Not only would that continue to improve the Yankees' rotation, but it would allow a little more depth as the Yankees don't have much of anyone currently beyond their current starting 5. Then they would not have to rely on Pineda for the whole season (and need him to comeback). Tabata and Ichiro are probably pretty similar players at this point, except Tabata costs less and is younger. Why would the Pirates do this trade then? There is only one reason involved here: money. Tabata and Wandy combine for a total of 16 million this year. And Tabata's contract guarantees 4 and 4.5mm the next two years with two option years after that. Those are reasonable numbers, especially for the Yankees who need to get younger and have some reasonable contract rates, but not for the Pirates who have much less wiggle room and far more important players to be focusing their money on. Ichiro is on the hook for 6.5mm this year only. The deal (with the extra cash) frees up 10mm this year and the future obligations of Tabata. As a similar player Ichiro can fill Tabata's role this year, which likely is the only year they need him as the Pirates will have young OF studs such as Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell coming up fast. Not only will they need Tabata's roster spot shortly, but that freed up salary the next two years might help Pittsburgh extend some of their star core players. In that franchise at this key point every penny counts, and these pennies would be best spent with...
2. Pirates sign AJ Burnett: This is really why the first deal should happen. Freeing up 10mm this year gives the Pirates hopefully the flexibility they need to give Burnett a legit offer. Burnett was the team ace last year, and for the last two years he has delivered 3.51 and 3.30 ERAs with the Pirates over 202.1 and 191 IP. Last year he led the league in k/9. To put it simply, the Pirates current replacement is Edison Volquez. Whatever magic the Pirates have had in resurrecting careers of pitchers I don't think it will work here. Volquez has really only had one good season compared to guys like Burnett and Liriano who while inconsistent had track records of success previously. The Pirates didn't even offer Burnett a qualifying offer, likely because they anticipated Rodriguez would activate his 13mm player option. Burnett liked his time in Pittsburgh so much he previously suggested he would either pitch for the Pirates or no one in 2014, although that has since changed. But if the Pirates make a competitive offer his comfort there and their success last year should be enough to bring him back.
3. Nelson Cruz resigns with Texas Rangers: Cruz is currently being hurt by draft pick compensation attached to him along with lingering PED questions. But the Rangers let Cruz return last year for the playoffs, and adding Prince Fielder this year shows the team is poised to make another run. While Prince will likely have a huge year in Texas, that is minimized by the loss of Cruz and his 27 homers in only 109 games last year. Since it appears the team plans on playing Fielder at 1st instead of DH anyways the team can also overlook Cruz's declining fielding and stash him there primarily with occasional starts in the corner OF spots. Recent rumors have tied Cruz to Seattle, although with a logjam at DH and other poor defensive OF options I don't see the match making as much sense. Even if Seattle is serious, that should spurn Texas all the more to try to get Cruz to come back.
4. Tyler Colvin signs with Milwaukee: Just to be clear, this would be a minor league deal. Colvin had a deal in place with Baltimore and then failed his physical, becoming the second player the Orioles have rejected this offseason after failing a physical (the other being Grant Balfour). The issue is tied to a lingering back injury, but if Colvin can overcome it this season, he has plenty of upside. In 2010 and 2012, Colvin had roughly 400 PA each year and turned in an OPS north of .800 each year, hitting 20 and 18 homers respectively. While he doesn't get on base well (career .289 OBP, .327 in 2012 his career best), the power and ability to play OF corners and 1B makes him a wise depth option for the Brew Crew, who need more stability at 1B this year and have given LF to Khris Davis after a strong showing last year. But as Davis is no sure thing and Reynolds is the best current option at 1B, depth is a good move, and will cost Milwaukee little. Why should Colvin do it? Because he'd be wise to go to a team with little depth to increase his chances at a midseason opportunity once he shakes his injury issues.
5. Stephen Drew finally signs with Mets: Besides his strong 59 game debut in 2006 and an excellent 2008, Drew really hasn't been the elite SS he is sometimes been hailed as. But he has been an excellent compliment to any team, combining strong defense with while-not-impressive-still-definitely-solid offense. But with draft compensation attached to him and Scott Boras as an agent, Drew just hasn't caught on anywhere. The problem is not enough teams have the apparent need for a SS enough to surrender a draft pick. The Mets however, make a lot of sense. For one, they have been rumored to be displeased with their current SS Ruben Tejada who only hit .202 last year. Management can say all they want that they intend to start him in 2014, that's only a true default option. The organization is probably about a year away from real legitimacy, especially since their young Ace Matt Harvey will be out for the year, but they are definitely heading towards respectability and improving SS along with their improved OF could go a long way for the Mets. Additionally they have already forfeit their top pick in order to land Curtis Granderson, thus Drew would only cost a second round pick. A three year deal with maybe a forth year option at 10-11mm annually should get it done at this point in the offseason and guarantee they have Drew during the time this organization turns it around. This match has seemed obvious for a while, highly rumored on mlbtraderumors, it's time to deliver.
6. Mets deal Lucas Duda for the Orioles' Zach Britton: The Mets would prefer to deal Ike Davis, but Duda makes more sense for Baltimore and New York seems willing to deal either. While Mets' GM Sandy Alderson has been rather high in his demands for Davis (asking the Brewers for Thornburg and the Orioles for Eduardo Rodriguez), at some point they have to decide if they would rather one of Duda/Davis on the bench or lower their demands. Britton is not a bad get however. A former top pitching prospect, it was not that long ago Britton was believed to be a fixture at the top of the Oriole's rotation, especially after a strong debut. But since then Britton has regressed and the Orioles have added other options to the team and have other top pitching prospects coming up. Britton now is out of options and Baltimore would either have to start him, convert him to the pen (where the team already has several lefties) or expose him to waivers where he most certainly will be claimed. The Mets this year could easily start him over someone like Familia or stash him in their pen as depth. Not expecting to contend but looking to add major league ready talent is where this organization is in their rebuild, and Britton fits the mold. Duda meanwhile would offer a 1B/OF/DH option for a team that particularly has no clear option at DH. This would also give the team at least an option should they lose Chris Davis to free agency in 2015. Although they shouldn't let that happen. More on that later. This isn't what the Mets thought they could get for Davis or Duda, but when one is clearly expendable and demand has diminished, so does Alderson's options.
7. Twins sign Oliver Perez: After another disaster season the Twins are expecting to improve having revamped their rotation with major free agent commitments to the likes of Pelfrey (no idea why), Nolasco (a guy who could thrive if he keeps his peripheral numbers solid), and Phil Hughs (who should thrive in Target Field). With all the changes to the rotation, little changes were made to the bullpen, but here is a quietly genius addition. Perez has resurrected his career as a reliever but strangely has not been signed to date. He brings excellent strikeout numbers with a k/9 of nearly 13 last season and has struck out roughly a man per inning throughout his entire career. A one year deal for about 2mm with an option for the same amount would be a good get, and if nothing else would make him good trade bait midseason to fuel the rebuild.
8. Joel Hanrahan signs on with Baltimore: At one point he was an elite closer. But after being injured last year Hanrahan is still jobless but apparently will be throwing for teams next month. While many teams are likely to be in the running for him as a depth move (think this year's Brian Wilson) no contender may be in greater need than Baltimore, who after dropping a deal with Balfour due to a concern in his physical and failing to outbid Seattle for Fernando Rodney have no real closer after dealing away the expensive Johnson who saved 101 games for Baltimore the last two years. The Orioles use their bullpen a lot, as managing pens are part of manager Buck Showalter's gifts. They also play in a lot of close games, so they need a reliable closer. It seems the current plan is to use Tommy Hunter who has a grand total of four career saves. A back-up plan would be wise for Baltimore.
9. Chris Capuano gets added to the Angels: The Angels are trying not to waste their seasons where they have Mike Trout, it's caused them in recent years to add a lot of star power only to be met with under-performance and disappointment. That led to this year focusing on a goal of adding young, cheap, controllable pitching rather than aging and expensive veterans where you pay for their previous years. They succeeded in that endeavor when they added Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago in one fell swoop. Dipoto deserves a lot of credit for that deal. But at the same time, the Angels shouldn't necessarily rely on those two to immediately boost this rotation. They are young and unproven afterall. This is where Capuano comes in. A solid pitcher (and one of my favorite former Brewers), Capuano is a good back rotation guy. He has tended to be streaky in his career. But he provides a solid lefty to compete with Skaggs and Santiago for the final wo spots in the rotation. Given Paul Maholm's recent contract that only guaranteed him 1.5mm with another 5mm in incentives, Capuano likely would not cost much different. Maybe 2mm guarantee with 4mm in incentives? If they can afford to pay 5mm per year for Joe Smith and 7.5mm for Joe Blanton I would hope they can pony up what it takes to add Cappy.
10. Suk-Min Yoon joins the Cubs: Missing out on Tanaka doesn't mean there are no pitchers for the Cubs to chase. As we saw last year with Edwin Jackson, the Cubs are willing to pursue players who they feel are young enough and controllable enough to be a helpful piece of their next contender. While the team has some promising young players like Soler, Bryant, and Baez to go along with young players like Castillo, Castro, and Rizzo they don't look as promising on the pitching end. Especially if Samardzija is not sticking around. Yoon is a 27 year old Korean looking to make the jump. After the success of Ryu with the Dodgers teams are definitely taking the Korean market a little more seriously. Yoon may not be as good, but likely is good enough to step in and help this rotation now and for years to come. The Cubs may have a slight advantage in this market as well, already adding another Korean pitcher Wada on a minor league deal. Having someone who shares your experiences and languages in the upper end of the system may appeal to Yoon. If that doesn't, the money that Chicago has certainly can.
11. Yankees sign Aledmys Diaz: A young international player who has been the subject of rumors for some time is bound to be a large market target. And with the era of future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter nearing its end it is time for the Yankees to start transitioning. While the 2015 free agent market has some solid options the two best (JJ Hardy and Hanley Ramirez) may very well be extended by that point and the youngest option (Asdrubal Cabrera - 29) has already been in decline. Diaz is 23 yrs old and soon to be cleared to sign with any mlb team after his free agency was delayed for falsifying his age. Signing him now will give him a little time for seasoning before joining the big club and stepping into Jeter's shoes. It also offers more security than Brendan Ryan should Jeter's health sideline him for significant time again this year. Considering the Yankees ridiculous spending this year, disregard for the luxury tax, desire to be younger, and rumored intention to go bananas on international signings this year, he simply fits the bill.
12. Seattle's Nick Franklin for Chicago's Alejandro De Aza: The signing of Robinson Cano has effectively blocked Franklin in Seattle. Meanwhile the era of Gordon Beckham experiment ought come to an end. While Franklin didn't hit wonderfully in his first taste of the majors (.225 ave) he did flash some power with 12 homers and hit nearly 100 points better in AAA (.324 ave). As the southsiders seek to do a semi rebuild he could be their 2B of the future. Meanwhile Seattle helps with some depth where they may be weak in 2014 as they seek to make major strides now. De Aza is either an excellent 4th OF or a solid starter. He almost put together a 20/20 season last year and can play all over the outfield, though not with spectacular defense and his slash numbers all dipped last year. Between injury issues, poor defense, and offensive question marks I don't really believe Logan Morrison and Cory Hart will both be starting together more than 115 games this year (barring an injury/trade to Smoak). Thus the Mariners could do with another quality outfielder. A low level prospect or PTBNL might be due from Chi Sox to really even out this trade. Although Franklin's blocked position might make further demands difficult.
13. Kendrys Morales returns to Angels: After a year away and serious woes becoming much of the Angels' lineup not named Mike Trout, Morales seems a good fit to return. Losing a draft pick for a third straight year might be the most prohibitive aspect of this deal, but now that the Angel's dealt Trumbo, their lineup is only daunting if both Pujols and Hamilton return to form, which might be a big if at this point. Morales adds a solid if not impressive option at 1B/DH (probably mostly DH but moving sometimes for Pujol's sake). With such a limited market the Angels might get a major bargain here, and might get away with a 2 yr deal or 2 yr with a 3rd year option deal. Either one would be ideal to help this offense produce while they have their best chance. Morales had his best years with the Angels, maybe he has another good one there.
14. Ubaldo Jimenez goes to Arizona: Last year it seemed like Texas could not catch a break when it came to landing targets. This year Arizona seems to be striking out, with pitchers in particular. Guys like Garza and Tanaka chose alternative options over the Diamondbacks. The D-Backs can still make an impact move. Three big name pitchers remain in AJ Burnett, Ervin Santana and Jimenez. Santana is too much a fly ball pitcher to succeed in Chase Field. As to Burnett, with no draft pick compensation, and likely seeking a one year deal after two strong years his demand is likely to be higher are therefore harder to secure. Jimenez however might be a perfect fit. After many painful starts in Cleveland, midseason he seemed to figure things out and became a beast down the stretch for the Indians. A former Ace of the Rockies, he's handled the NL West and hitter's stadiums before. His electric stuff and relative youth should make him an attractive addition. Toronto is seen by many as a favorite for Jimenez, especially since they seem content with forfeiting their draft pick, but with little other competition at this point Arizona should be able to negotiate this one to the end. After all, unless the dollars were far apart, if I had to choose between pitching in Canada, with Canadian income taxes, in the AL East or in the NL West guess where I'm going (no offense Canadians). To add a guy who a year ago had 13 wins, a 3.30 Era, and 9.6 k/9 they oughta find out if they can get him.
15. In a major blockbuster the Nationals send Danny Espinosa, Drew Storen, Wilson Ramos, Steve Souza, and Ross Detwiler to the Orioles for Ryan Flaherty and Matt Wieters: Now for the mind blowing deal that will never happen (but should). I can see Oriole fans freaking out over this. "Not our beloved Matt Wieters! He's a franchise guy." Ironically, "Franchise Guy" is probably the very phrase Scott Boras will use to lead Wieters out of Baltimore and to a bigger deal elsewhere in free agency. In another year Wieters will be only a year from free agency and what one can get in return for him will go down likely. Now it is true he had a bit of a down season, but this deal allows for expendable players on Washington's end anyways. Expendable to Washington at least. They are all quality players. Espinosa is only a year removed from a two years stretch that saw him hit 38 homers and steal 37 bases. His defense has always been solid as well. But with a down year and the rise of young Anthony Rendon Espinosa figures to be on the bench in 2014. They'd essentially be trading him with Flaherty, who may be slotted as the starting 2B at this point (him or Jamille Weeks) but Flaherty's versatility makes him more valuable on the bench which is where he would be in Washington. While the Orioles would lose one of their big bats, they would fill a lot of their holes for several seasons. Usually trading such players you do in return for prospects, because teams have little MLB talent to spare who are trying to acquire key players for playoff runs and because the team trading away needs young players and is usually in a rebuild. But Baltimore has been a solid team the last two years and could compete again if they spread their resources out some. Thanks to how deep a team the Nats are, they have enough young, MLB talent to share and still be a complete team. Along with offering another 2B option, this deal adds a quality starter with real upside (Detwiler has often been said to have frontline stuff) to join the rotation, an instant replacement for Wieters in Ramos, another legit closing option in young former Nats closer Drew Storen, one strong prospect who may be in the majors soon after batting .300/.396/.557 in AA and who plays outfield, where the team has plenty of options but few sure things in LF and their RF Markakis a free agent at year's end. For the Nationals along with a more versatile bench player they get an elite catcher. The National's lineup has as many questions as it does stars. Ramos while a strong offensive catcher was not elite, and injuries limited his time. Unlike Baltimore who has some impressive catchers in their system should Ramos go down, Washington needs a more durable option Wieters' games caught numbers have increased each season, and he's caught 139 or more the last 3. Finally the Nationals have shown a willingness and ability to negotiate with agent Scott Boras that they have a real chance at extending him long term. On the flip side Baltimore has another Boras Agent that is due for free agency soon: Chris Davis. Instead of trying to carry both, it is better to deal Wieters now to fill the numerous holes that they have failed to address and then focus the savings on extending Chris Davis who with one more solid season will be unextendable this time next year. Davis has already had two excellent seasons, now is the time to try to extend him. If the Orioles want to remain competitive the next couple of years, this is the type of move to make. If the Nats want to win it all this year to overcome their botched 2013, here is the star power to make it happen.
So there you have it. Some wild ideas and some where I simply agree with the rumors I hear. You'll notice several teams like the Angels, Mets, and Orioles appear repeatedly, while other teams are so well put together. Last year I was 0-15 in my guesses, this year I think there is a fair chance of 1-15 or 2-15. With those numbers I could hit for the Astros (ouch). If I'm the only one who laughed I'm ok with that.
