MLB: 10 Things I want to happen in 2014

From the stars of 2014 like Cruz and Samardzija to the struggling Rule 5 pick Wang, from the World Series to just breaking even at .500, all are featured in the Armchair Theologian's midseason pause.

Been a while since we got a little baseball love, so I thought I would take a pause here midseason with a few hopes for how the rest of the season plays out. Most are at least realistic:

1. Nelson Cruz hits 45 home runs. Like Ryan Braun in 2012, this is Cruz's "I don't need steroids to be a power hitter" season. Cruz has always been a favorite of mine. I've tracked him ever since he was traded to the Brewers by the A's for Keith Ginter (a solid replacement IF who I also enjoyed when he played for MIL). I remember looking at Cruz's minor league stats at the time and his reputation for a strong RF arm and really being excited for him to come up. Instead he was packaged in the Carlos Lee trade Melvin made with Texas which I from the get go did not like (mainly because of the inclusion of Cruz) and have often labeled as Doug Melvin's worst trade as Brewer's GM. Cruz has had a strong offensive (questionable defensive) career in Texas but was suspended last year as part of the Biogenesis scandal. Between that, his defense, and a qualifying offer he was not a popular free agent this offseason and Baltimore signed him at a bargain 8mm. Now he leads the league with 20 hr (also leads in RBI, Slugging, and OPS). The highest total of his career was 33 in 2009. I'm still a fan of his and I would just love to see him keep annihilating the baseball. He's only had about 250 PA, and so long as he is healthy he should be able to get another 300-400, which means 45 long balls is not out of the question. If he does, he should have no problem making up the lost money from this offseason's debacle.
2. Mark Buehrle wins the Cy Young award. This probably won't happen primarily because his K rate is not good enough and wins are less valued (as people recognize how players like Jeff Samardzija can be pitching amazingly and yet winless) but Buehrle is deserving of his wins. He currently leads the league with a 10-1 record to go with a 2.10 ERA through 81.1 IP. He somehow is avoiding homeruns even though he plays in a homer friendly ballpark and the ever dangerous AL East. I've never liked Buehrle, but he has been nothing short of consistent in his career: double digit wins every year except his rookie season in 2000, with an ERA under 4 in nine of those seasons, and he has pitched over 200 innings in every season except his rookie campaign. And he does so with a regularly good walk rate (career bb/9 of 2.0). I don't like him, he's not impressive, but his consistency is hard to ignore, and by the end of his career he might be like Raphael Palmiero where all of the sudden you realize he put together quite a career for himself. But given how unimpressive he is, it would be awesome to have him come out of nowhere and win the Cy Young. And if he keeps his season up, he'll have a good case for it.
3. Twins and Astros finish above .500. Baseball is more even of a sport than most realize. With exception of a few poorly run organizations, teams currently can turn their fate around within a couple of years. Indeed, sustained success is the real struggle in Major League Baseball. Gone are the years where it was always the Yankees and Braves in the postseason. The Twins and Astros are the teams that are starting to turn around from being bottom feeders. The Twins are doing it simply by having their pitching not be so much worse than the rest of the league. The two teams are currently under .500 but have all the ability to improve. The Twins have been hovering around the .500 mark all year in spite of a completely underwhelming offense with exception of Dozier and some players who have thrived in small samples (Santana and Escobar). The return of Willingham to the line-up, along with improvement from Mauer (which is not unreasonable considering his current offensive performance and no longer enduring catching) should also help. Also, they have some good young pitchers in the minors and some real bad pitchers with the big club who may be let go to clear way. So improvement is possible. The Astros, though further back are watching their talent reach the majors now. With some solid arms performing such as Dallas Keuchel, and now both Singleton and Springer at the MLB level they may be improving fast. Both teams are definitely as organizations heading in the right direction, but we'd love to see it pay dividends this year.
4. Cardinals make a bad trade. Sounds a little vindictive I know. The reality is they have been one of the best run organizations in the last 15 years and at some point I just wish they would make a dumb move, because it seems year after year they get all the breaks, their prospects pan out, and they win on the trades they make. Now they are dealing with some excess in some positions and are behind in the standings, I wonder if they will deal from their "depth" to add an impact player. If so, I just for once want it to be a blunder, the new guy to do nothing, and to know when they had to decide between Jay, Craig, Adams, Carpenter, and whoever else they might consider moving that they picked the wrong one. I mean, these guys let Albert Pujols walk and replaced him with Carlos Beltran and looked all the smarter for doing so. How does that happen?
5. Brewers - White Sox World Series. Who would've seen this one coming? But give both these teams credit for improving their teams. Milwaukee I knew was a greater force to reckon with than most realized simply because getting Braun-Ramirez for most of the season and a player who can field 1st base would vastly improve the team, not too mention the other additions. The White Sox made some smart moves this offseason. They pulled off a rare feat of getting younger and better at the same time. Credit Rick Hahn for adding so much young, but good talent. The emergence of Abreu especially is paying off big time. Though the Sox likely won't win the division, they may pull off a Wild Card. It would be an amazingly quick return to the postseason for these teams, a nice fresh World Series, and a midwest one. Chicago-Milwaukee has a nice rivalry with the Cubs, and if I remember used to have a good one with the White Sox when the Brewers were in the AL. The towns are close enough for fans to commute between each other. It could be the Hiawatha Series!
6. Blue Jays win the AL East. I love how unpredictable the AL East has become. The Jays who were pegged for greatness last year crashed and burned to the bottom of the AL East. Now they have a 4 game lead in the division. The Jays also have what might be the most dangerous line-up in baseball, especially power wise. I've never seen the ball jump off a bat like it does for Joey Bats. Most imposing and explosive swing in baseball as far as I'm concerned. And that's saying nothing of the strong cast of hitters around him. Like the Brewers, a strong winning streak is basically why they are where they are, but it may be enough. Their main concern will be shoring up their pitching. If they do, this team could be positioned for a deep post-season run. If the Jays pull off a postseason performance, every team from the AL East will have made the postseason at least once between 2012-2014.
7. Garrett Jones gets traded to the Brewers. This likely would not happen until the deadline if it did, since Miami is still very much in the playoff hunt. But given the fact that they are probably not a playoff team, especially without young ace Jose Fernandez (who joined the ranks of the Tommy John surgery victims this year) this team seems likely to fade. Jones would be an improvement to the left-handed part of the Brewer's 1B platoon of Overbay-Reynolds. While Jones is not as athletic or considered a defender by any means, Overbay's defensive numbers this year simply are not good enough to merit his spot on the roster. As I noted in a previous blog the Brewers already made a mistake by picking his unimpressive defense over Juan Francisco's bat. Especially in a strict platoon Jones will deliver quality offense (.288/.353/.542 line against righties this season, .272/.338/.493 career split against righties compared to a career .193/.235/.333 split against lefties). Not only that but he also can play the Outfield Corners, although his defense is worse there, still that versatility the Brewers could use for their bench. Using two platoons (Weeks/Gennett, Reynolds/Overbay) in which only one of those four players can handle more than one position (Reynolds can also play 3rd) is really hard on the bench, especially when a player is out day-to-day and not on the DL. The Brewers do not have a deep system, but Jones should not be an expensive get. This is an ideal match if the Marlins become sellers.
8. Wei-Chung Wang makes it the full season. I follow the Brewers most, so they get several predictions. Here is another little nugget. Wei-Chung Wang, the surprising rule 5 draft pick, the Brewers are working hard to keep. He's young, only 22, left handed, and could be a valuable prospect for the shallow system. I believe it was Assistant Gm Gord Ash who said the team views Wang as a 1st round type prospect. They see keeping him as recovering the 1st round pick they surrendered last season to sign Kyle Lohse (a move that has paid off well so far for Milwaukee, by the way). What is difficult is Wang after a strong spring started to struggle just before the season began and it carried into the season. He got roughed up bad in 3 of his 8 appearances thus far this year. The team wants to keep him, but is having a hard time bringing him in during games. This is putting added pressure on the rest of the bullpen, but if Milwaukee does not keep him on their 25 man roster, they have to offer him back to Pittsburgh for half the cost they paid for him, and he will likely be taken back in that case given his age. Thus the team is really trying to keep him in that pen, and slowly build back his confidence from his current 13.50 ERA. It's a less known story in baseball, but one Brewers fans are well aware of.
9. Giants trade for Aaron Hill. The Giants are the perfect example of a team that's good by having so many quality pieces. People praise Billy Beane for his moneyball approaches, but his rival GM across the bay deserves credit. Sabean has this ability to find talent where you don't expect it. Aubrey Huff was a perfect example a few years ago, Michael Morse is this season's example of a guy who is just a perfect piece in the puzzle. Add in a pitching staff with several guys who can any given day (or in the case of Bumgardner, every day) shut you down and this team is deserving of their record. But the injury to Scutaro has left an obvious hole at 2B. While some of the guys they have like Hicks have been better than they thought to fill in, ultimately 2B is the place for an upgrade. Hill has shown himself to be a complete player. From the time he joined ARZ in 2011-2013 he hit .300 for the team, in 2012 he hit 26 home runs (3rd time he has hit 26 or more), and he stole 14 bases. He is also considered an above average defensive 2B. Hill is struggling though some this year (.710 OPS) and really underperforming from his performance in recent years. He was a top 2B in TOR years ago, faded, was traded and had a resurgence in Arizona. Now he is fading again (along with the rest of Arizona, so they should be willing to trade him) and may be energized again by a move to SF. Even if not, he's all round enough of a player to be an upgrade for the team at 2B currently and doesn't have to be a star to be a worthwhile addition for the Giants.
10. Orioles trade for Jeff Samardzija. Shark, who is from Valparaiso (where I went to college, although he went to high school there) is destined to leave Chicago. The Cubs seem to have no interest in paying him to be on their next contender (whenever that will be). Given his excellent season and still having one more year of team control, his value will likely never be higher than it is this season. The only obstacle to him getting traded will be the Cubs' asking price. But Baltimore may be able and willing to pay it. The Orioles have a slew of young pitching prospects with Bundy, Gausman, Rodriguez, and company, they have enough young P prospects to meet a steep asking price and they may be in the position in their franchise to make such a move. For one, by having so many young P prospects they don't totally deplete their system by trading one or two, unlike other teams who may not be willing to trade their one highly regarded pitching prospect. Additionally, the Orioles have actually had some rotten luck in regards to their big name pitching prospects. At one point Arrieta and Matusz were supposed to be 1-2 fixtures in that rotation (with Britton then passing them as they did not develop). Now Britton and Matusz are relievers and Arrieta is no longer with the team (coincidentally with the Cubs). So the team may be more willing to try an established arm, especially since they lack a true ace, and free agent signing Ubaldo Jimenez has thus far disappointed. Samardzija gives them the ace they need to pair with their imposing offense. Additionally, they would control Samardzija through 2015, which is likely their best window of contention since at that time Chris Davis and Matt Wieters will be free agents (also putting them in position for 3 additional draft picks in the 2016 draft since all would likely receive qualifying offers from the team). 

So there is my evening baseball break. With some real possibilities and fun things to look forward to. 2014 has been a fun season thus far. Let's hope it stays that way.