Fantasy GM: a New Strategy for the Yankees

In the last 10 years several things have happened that have changed the shape of baseball. Most notably teams have changed their systems of evaluation (especially in relation to the value of defense) and extensions have become popular in buying out the first 1-3 free agent years (usually part or all of the player's "prime").

This shift has severely impacted the Yankees' primary strategy which was to use their spending power to keep the players they want to keep and buy the players they want to buy. No team could fill holes in their roster like the Yankees. But with these shifts the free agent market has lost some of its potency for teams and the loss of prospects (in trades for example) are more serious since you cannot get the best out of such talent in the free agent pool. You get players when they are leaving their best, you get 2-3 good years in return for 3-5 declining or even bad ones.

As such, the Yankees are watching their market dominance yield less success. They still can reload better than any team, but it has made them an old team, with a weak farm system (and therefore little depth, though surprisingly more than some think), and more competitive rivals in the AL East. We can already begin to see some shifting in the Yankees' style, as they have become more reserved in recent years when it comes to dealing top prospects, more active in international signings, and at least more hesitant to get the big names - although in the end that is still their primary market stratagem, especially when they feel pressure to compete.

This blog is dedicated towards highlighting what I feel should be the new strategy for the Yankees going forward. Some of which they are already beginning to do, but I think they should be more committed to. Below are the principles of what I'll here dub the new Yankee plan:

1. Whenever your first round pick is unprotected (picks 11-30), avoid signing players who will cost draft pick compensation. In order to start restocking the system, the team needs to protect its top pick. This principle can be lessened when the system overall is objectively ranked in the top 10 in the league.
2. However, should the Yankees struggle so much as to have their first round pick protected, they should feel free to sign a player who has received a QO, and in fact take advantage by getting 2 such players with QO's if they meet the team's need, and especially if they are fringe QO players where the qualifying offer impacts their market (making them cheaper). 
3. Only in a perfect storm of protected picks, right price, talent, age, and team need should a player with a QO from an in division team be signed. It sounds silly, but no need to help another division rival. Make another team sacrifice a pick and help your rivals. Therefore only when you just can't say no should you say yes to such a player.
4. No mega-deals (more than 18mm AAV for 5 or more years) unless another player already on a mega-deal's contract has expired that year. This way the team paces itself in how many players they will have in aging-decline years and albatross contracts and prevents the roster from being overloaded with unhelpful players. Exceptions can be made only when the player is so young and talented that a bona-fide star is being secured during his prime years.
5. Instead the team's free agent focus should move to dominating the mid-tier market. The Yankees can still outbid other teams and flex their financial muscle, but instead of overpaying for stars with expensive extra years they should over-pay for the best of the non-star players. This will be the key tooling method. Why? The team can overwhelm their roster with solid players but not get stuck in long or overpriced, unmoveable contracts. Better to pay extra for a solid performance than pay extra in years - which is the main difference between the stars and mid-tier players. For a mid-tier player, 2-4 years is a norm and the amount is what matters in that period. The shorter the contract, even at a higher value the less likely it is for the contract to be a burden or a bust. If the free agent market does not wield enough star power, or old star power that wants long contracts, use the free agent market to add the contributors and rely on the trade market or minor league system to yield the stars. I'm not sure this is their intent, but rumors suggest the Yankees are at least trying to go this route this year, although in the end I think they will cave and revert back to at least one mega deal this season.
6. Add at least one high risk player a year. Give the best incentive laden deal or one-year pillow contract out there. Too many spells too high a risk, but only having to buy one year to get a prime year out of a high upside player coming off a down season or injury riddled one is well worth the investment, because those kind of players can be the difference of a playoff team the same as more expensive players yet without costing more wasted years. At most you have one wasted season.
7. Players 30 or over should never receive more than five guaranteed years. Options, vesting or team options may be worthwhile for the right player, but in general limiting how many of those 35+ players one has will reduce number of injured players and replacement level performance years. This will also minimize the number of defensive-impaired players who need to be cycled through the DH role.
8. Give out a qualifying offer to as many free agents as possible. If you can defend it in any way, do it. The current QO system favors high market teams like the Yankees who can afford a player deciding to accept. So as long as that player can provide value on a one year deal the team should offer the QO, even if they are a fringe player to receive one. If they accept, it follows the mode of slightly overpaying to minimize the long-term commitment. If they don't it increases one's draft stock.
9. Stay under the luxury tax. Now the Yankees have shown a desire to do so, but also that they can afford not to, but they should remain under, because the saved money can still be pumped into the team in a different way, namely,
10. dominate the bidding process on Asian stars. The current agreement with NPB does not allow them to "win" necessarily the bid as easily, but with saved luxury tax money, the team can easily outbid any Korean player of interest (and there seems to be a growing market from that field of talent), and can if necessary guarantee their right to negotiate with any Japanese star by committing 20mm. Posting fees do not count towards luxury tax considerations. Obviously the team may decide some players are not worth getting, but the Tanakas, Darvishes, and Ryus this team should be able to win out on.
11. Play the Cuban market. Cuban contracts are on the rise as young Cuban free agents are showing to be worth the investment. At some point they will get over-inflated and come down a bit (some predict the Yosmany Tomas contract will be one of the more notable overpays that slow the rising cost of such international stars). Either way, they've proven to be valuable players and are available at ages other free agents simply aren't. The team therefore need not overindulge, but play in this market quite actively. In recent years a lot of Cuban talent has come to the majors and the Yankees have not won a single one. They've been involved in the rumors of some, but never win or seem to even be a runner up.
12. In years with a strong crop, dominate the international amateur market. This is essentially what the Yankees did this year. Between having forfeited so many draft picks this last year (due to multiple mega-contracts to multiple free agents with draft compensation attached) and their apparent confidence in this year's crop of players over the next year or two's, the Yankees were major players in the amateur market, to the point that they were so far over their allotted allowance they must pay 100% tax on every signing and cannot sign a player for more than 300k the next two seasons. But when the year is right, the Yankees should do just as they did. This takes a good scouting department, especially in order to predict the upcoming market that they are essentially forfeiting. The years this happens they should do just as they have and go all out.
13. Never trade your top pitching or hitting prospect for less than 1 1/2 years of any player. Top prospects are a sought after commodity, and the Yankees have been more willing to deal prospects than other teams. To some degree, they have shown prospects to be over-valued and have shown the commitment to winning to be greater than the commitment to team control. But that was in part due to their ability to fill holes via free agency. If they are not aiming to add as much star power each year via free agency but instead rely on that to come through the system they need to protect their most likely stars. Other top prospects can be traded, but preserve your #1 pitching and hitting prospect unless you are receiving a player not only good enough to be worth it, but long enough to deliver enough value to the team (and controlled long enough to make a QO to and therefore secure draft pick compensation to restock the system). 
14. Have at least one supersub. Whether he is a quality reserve/fringe starter or a regular starter, versatility is huge for American League teams as it allows players to cycle through the DH role and provides good depth by covering enough positions with a single player.
15. Hold onto your stars. All quality players should never be extended prior to free agency. Give them a QO and if it works out, try to resign them. But you don't pay big to try to keep them. But it is your stars who you should try to extend and do it early enough where the extension is not a year before free agency for 7 years and 100+mm but instead earlier to where the goal is prime years even if it means overpaying the arbitration years. This team does not need to lock up any good player. But the Robinson Canos of the world should be if it is done early enough.

So there is your general guide. These principles will help prevent long stretches of struggles. It may not as easily produce the consistent winning Yankee fans expect, but I think it will prevent the exorbant price they have paid to try to avoid years of difficulty and which they may have to pay anyway. Moreover, their biggest problem is the current system always holds multiple wastes of roster and significant salary, prohibiting the team from making the step from competitive to elite. It has been several years since the Yankees were seen as truly elite or a World Series favorite. This system will create the same kind of competitiveness with a better chance to transition to elite as the system comes around or the right international free agent or high risk player raises the team to the level it needs to be at to get past the divisional series.

These would be my guiding principles if I had the reigns of the Yankees. I feel Brian Cashman is actually quite astute at judging value-talent (it is just usually overlooked by his flashy big free agent signings) and could quite excellently maneuver such a philosophy. The biggest hindrance is the New York culture of instant returns and no vacations from winning.