2018 MLB Predictions

So Major League Baseball's 2018 season began during this Christian thing we call holy week and I never got to post this in advance of the coming year. I wanted to write it sooner but with the weird offseason we didn't have all the big free agents signed until really middle of the month (start of the season if you count Greg Holland). Last year I had some goof ups (thanks especially to my Brewers playing so well) and some spot on predictions (like predicting the downfall of Baltimore and San Francisco after years of success and predicting Arizona's rise) and I came within a game of rightly predicting the World Series victor (no thanks to Yu Darvish). Although I whiffed completely on the awards. So here now with a brief predictions for this year so I can brag or be shamed next year:

2018 WORLD SERIES WINNER

Houston Astros over Washington Nationals in 7: I went back and forth on this, so it shows how close I imagine it could be. But ultimately Houston's deeper rotation (even though I like Washington's top better), better DH line-up and younger core (which makes me think more durable by the end of a long season-postseason stretch) will make them the first back to back World Series Champs since the 1999-2000 Yankees. 

Here's how I think it will all play out...

NL East

1. Nationals: Even if they didn't already feel like this needs to be the year, even if Harper was not in a walk year, it's just not close.
2. Mets: I'm betting on a healthy rotation more than anything else here.
3. Braves: I think they take a big step forward this year.
4. Phillies: Possibly losing Neshek could hurt, and that's before considering how much Kapler might exhaust this bullpen. I'm also generally skeptical of moving first basemen to the outfield (#RhysHoskins)
5. Marlins: Oh it's gonna be bad. It's gonna be so bad...

NL Central

1. Cubs: They're still the best, but cracks are showing and the farm is thinning.
2. Cardinals: Osuna and a full season of Pham and Weaver makes me think they will be back in the postseason this year.
3. Brewers: Everyone expects them to be worse than last year even though they improved their ball club. I don't expect that much regression, but I don't expect much progression either.
4. Pirates: They seem like tough losers to me: beating them won't be easy, but it will happen more often than not.
5. Reds: They just signed Gallardo to a major league deal after the spring he had, that should tell you all you need to know.

NL West

1. Dodgers: Not a lot changing at the top of the divisions in the NL this year. Even with less MLB depth, the prospect depth is still quite good.
2. Rockies: A deep bullpen can't hurt in that ballpark, and Blackmon-Arenado is a beast combination perhaps more dangerous than the old Braun-Fielder duo Milwaukee used to feature.
3. Diamondbacks: They are still good, but have limited payroll/prospect capital for midseason acquisitions and Greinke showed real signs to worry in spring training.
4. Padres: They are gonna take another step forward this year, but not into a winning record.
5. Giants: With Madbum and Shark already on the DL, it's going to be a long year in San Francisco.

NL Wild Card Game

Cardinals over Brewers: I wouldn't be surprised to see another team getting a wild card, but I imagine between the Cards and the Crew they will net at least one and I'm predicting both. In the end, St. Louis is better positioned for a one game playoff.

NLDS

Cardinals over Dodgers in 5: I'm predicting an upset, but the Cards are built for post-season baseball...if they can get there. 

Nationals over Cubs in 4: I think the Nats know it's now or never. They should've beat Chicago last year, so this year I think they do it. 

NLCS

Nationals over Cardinals in 6: This is finally the year they get to the World Series. Just in time to watch Harper ride an NLCS MVP to an even bigger paycheck!

NL Cy Young

Noah Syndergaard: he's got the skill, just has to stay healthy. My back-up picks are Kershaw and Scherzer. My sleeper is Jonathan Gray.

NL MVP

Cody Bellinger: he had an MVP season as a rookie, and has the added benefit of national spotlight in Los Angeles. My back ups are Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper. My sleeper is Christian Yelich.

NL Rookie of the Year

Lewis Brinson: He's a top prospect pedigree with all the playing opportunities in the world. And on that team he can struggle and not worry about losing his starting gig. Back up is Walker Buehler (because it's always wise to bet on a Dodger) and Ronald Acuna just because he's so dang good. My sleeper is JP Crawford.

NL Comeback Player of the Year

Adam Wainwright: he's been trending in the wrong direction, which means any kind of a decent season and he should be in the running for the award. My fall backs are Evan Longoria and Jonathan Villar. My dark horse is the dark knight Matt Harvey.

NL Manager of the Year
Craig Counsell. If he can get his team back to the playoffs when projection systems are predicting decline he'll be the man. My back ups are Dave Roberts and Bud Black. My sleeper is Mickey Callaway.

AL East

1. Red Sox: they were first last year and I expected their offense to be better before they added JD Martinez.
2. Yankees: Stanton-Judge probably won't be as prestigious as the M & M boys were for the 61 Yankees, but adding an MVP should help their chances.
3. Blue Jays: Sanchez-Stroman plus Donaldson equals good team. Just not good enough.
4. Rays: They could surprise. But probably won't. Losing Honeywell (my initial Rookie of the Year pick) hurt.
5. Orioles: They are better than the Rays, but are probably not good enough to avoid selling at the deadline (assuming owner Peter Angelos lets them), which will bottom them out as the year goes on.

AL Central

1. Twins: Being bold here and predicting a huge step forward for Minnesota. But they got talent and made the most of the value free agent deals. 
2. Indians: Hard not to make them first with that pitching and some elite bats, but my 2017 AL Pennant picks are gonna take a step back I think due to health and depth issues.
3. White Sox: I think they are looking at a .500 or so season with lots of big talent.
4. Kansas City: Moustakas probably will only be around til the all star break and probably will only be about 65% the home run hitter he was last year.
5. Detroit: I think Miggy will bounce back nice, but there's not much else there and probably will be even less at the deadline.

AL West

1. Astros: the defending World Series champs went and got more dangerous this offseason. Yikes!
2. Angels: they had a good offseason and the rest of the division does not look all that great.
3. Mariners: King Felix might not be king anymore, and the star power is fading.
4. A's: I had them penciled in for third until guys like Cotton and Puk were injured. 
5. Rangers: The pitching could be good but more likely will be terrible. A lot of players could be great or terrible in fact.

AL Wild Card Game

Indians over Yankees. I'm thinking Cleveland has a score to settle and with a one-game playoff will do it in Major League fashion (minus the catcher driving in the winning run from second on a bunt single and an outfielder sacrificing a bucket of KFC to Jobu).

ALDS

Astros over Twins in 3: This will be swift and painful. Just because they won't have to face New York does not mean their playoff hopes will be any better.

Indians over Red Sox in 5: the Indians will crush the AL East in the playoffs...

ALCS

Astros over Indians in 5: ...only to be crushed by powerhouse Houston.

AL Cy Young

Chris Sale: for most of last year it was his to lose...and then he lost it. Not this year. For a back up I'm thinking Aaron Sanchez and Cory Kluber. Dark horse option is Jose Barrios.

AL MVP

Mike Trout: He probably would have won it last year had he not gotten hurt. Now he's got the support of a better line up. Fall back is last year's winners: Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Altuve. My sleeper though is Carlos Correa.

AL Rookie of the Year

Shohei Ohtani: I initially put him second because I'm not certain he is not going to get demoted midseason. But I figure he has probably three months to figure enough out to stick at the MLB level and if he does he will garner a lot of votes simply because of the hype and the crazy-seeming-almost-impossible thing he is trying to do as a two way player. My back up is Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar as one of them should be getting a lot of PT in a really good line up and with a lot of national media attention. For a dark horse option, I'll go with Christian Arroyo. 

AL Comeback Player of the Year

Miguel Cabrera: this is the easiest of all my predictions. There were clear signals that last year was more fluke than steep drop off, and I trust the talent. At least for another year. He doesn't need to be the best in baseball to best his career worst season. Other possibilities include Chris Davis and Jonathan Lucroy. My sleeper is the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon.

AL Manager of the Year

Mike Scioscia: it's funny how when your team is good you are magically a good manager again. Take Brett Boone and Paul Molitor as back up guys. Round it out with a John Gibbons sleeper pick.