Brewers should plan a rebuild

The Brewers, on the heels of a six game losing streak finally surrendered 1st place this week with essentially a month of baseball remaining. The good news is Milwaukee still has plenty a shot at the playoffs (Journal Sentinel yesterday reported 60% chance), the bad news is that since July they have been a losing team while division rivals St. Louis and Pittsburgh have been improving.

This is a big year for Milwaukee. Because of the early struggles of other teams this was a year to take the division and reach the playoffs which is essential since anything can happen in the playoffs. But major offensive slides along with a wasted bullpen is causing a meltdown. I hope they can pick it up, because this team can be streaky and if they turn it on soon, they could still be playoff bound.

Either way, as the season begins to come to a close and as the August trade deadline passes essentially locking in the team that Milwaukee will be working with this offseason I began to ask what is the best course of action this offseason and several scenarios played out in my head. Let me share the most drastic one: blow up the team and rebuild.

My thinking is this: the Brewers probably have maybe one more good season left of a real playoff chance. And if the team does well this month, and makes it to the NLCS (or at least deep in the NLDS) they may be better off going for it in 2015 and following a different path. But assuming their struggles cost them the playoffs or they get quickly eliminated in either a wild card game or a short division series (think 2008 Brewers-Phillies series) they should probably instead build for the future. After all, if they cannot do it this year it will be much tougher next year when: Ryan Braun and Kyle Lohse is another year older, you aren't likely to repeat your excellent start to the season, Gallardo loses more velocity, the Reds are healthy, the Cardinals might not be as bad out of the gate, the Pirates get full seasons from guys like Cole and Polanco. But the main reason is this: the Cubs are coming. The Cubs are a winning team in baseball's second half, and early showings of guys like Soler means this team has some young talent ready to produce. Add to that strong pitching by guys like Arrieta and Hendricks, more improvement by Baez, and likely adding pitching via free agency (I think one of Lester, Shields, or Scherzer ends up in Chicago) and possibly via trade given Alcantara/Baez/Castro/Russell seems an unnecessary amount of depth for 2B/SS and while Alcantara may go to OF, that still lets them move one (since 3B will almost certainly be occupied by Bryant next season) for a young, controllable pitcher.

Now there is a case that Pittsburgh and Cincinnati may be worse next year with the Reds possibly trading Latos or Cueto in order to retain the other one via extension and the Pirates are losing Liriano, Volquez, and Martin in free agency likely only able to retain one if any of the three. But they still have a young core and more on the way. The loss of Martin I think is the only one that will truly hurt.

But looking at how tough it will be to win next year (look how tough it's been even with our phenomenal 20-7 start) it is asking a lot for Milwaukee to go for it next year if they fail to succeed this year when the division was theirs for the season. Add to that several key players will be gone after next season and the team starts to look further and further from being a contender each year. Since at least 3 teams (Chicago, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh) have enough controllable talent to be a contender for the next couple years the time to do some rebuilding is now. Here is what I would do:

• Exercise the Brewer's end of the mutual option on Ramirez. If he rejects it (which I think he will), extend him a qualifying offer. If he accepts the QO or the option, trade him. If not, you get a draft pick for him. With Ramirez having a strong season, he will be a desired free agent. While age and injury concerns will limit him from a long term deal, the limited market for solid hitters along with his track record and strong 2014 will net interest for him. And even if they got "stuck" with him and couldn't get a solid return, keeping him (or dealing him at the deadline) wouldn't be bad for the team. Whether on the roster or on another roster in return for prospects/draft pick Ramirez is worth the Brewers pursuit.
• Trade Gallardo (whose option they pick up), Lohse, and Estrada. Now they may want to just keep Estrada since he won't cost much, is a good bounce-back candidate, and they will be creating holes in the rotation trading their 1-2 starters. But Estrada as a controllable, still reasonably affordable pitcher has value to teams that severely lack in pitching depth and have concerns about cost (like Angels, Yankees, and Astros) or teams with spacious ballparks (like Royals and Padres) since his outrageous homerun rate was his downfall this year. That may depend more on what his value is as a bounce-back candidate. Gallardo and Lohse are having strong years and will have one year of control at an affordable rate. While neither is an ace, both are solid mid-rotation additions for teams and certainly seem tradeable. Obviously again the market may be decidedly different and you have to hold onto them (Gallardo especially is worth holding onto for the right deal since he would be a realistic option for a QO in the 2016 offseason, so if you aren't offered anything reasonable just take the draft pick). Lohse on the other hand may be worth less (although would be a solid mid-season trade candidate too if need be, but should not be retained until his contract expires since he is not a good option to extend a QO to). 
• Trade Carlos Gomez. This would be the most controversial move but the wisest for rebuilding since Gomez is an elite CF with 2 years remaining on a bargain contract. Dealing him will net true talent. While many would argue that the extension Milwaukee got him to sign was so good trading him is ridiculous or you may not get fair value return, the bottom line is if the rest of the division is too good during his tenure his value is not enough to merit not trading him. And after another good year, an all-star appearance, and multiple years of control remaining this will be his peak value. 
• Trade Jonathan Broxton. This almost certainly would not be worth doing until the deadline. But when relievers are needed and he only has half a year of salary remaining, then he is a perfect deadline trade candidate. I don't expect he'd net much in the offseason given his cost and the availability of what would probably be just about every other reliever in baseball.
• Explore trading Jonathan Lucroy. With three years of control remaining at such a good cost this is not a must do move. But the Brewers have a slugging C in Coulter in the lower minors on the way (although some wonder if he will stay at catcher) and Lucroy is a serious MVP candidate this year. He really would also net a king's ransom given his position and mix of defense, offense, and a great contract. The team should explore the possibility of trading him, but not feel the need to.

These are the key moves that will begin to restock the system. I noticeably did not mention trading Braun mainly because I don't think he is that tradeable given his contract, power issues, injury issues, and post-PED PR. What he needs to do is probably have surgery on his thumb in hopes his power comes back. A little more power returning along with a return in plate discipline from this year's drop would go a long way in restoring his value (at which point the Brewers need to determine whether it is better to trade him or retain him career). I also did not include Matt Garza since he is controllable for so long still and with his injury and early season struggles is not at peak value. He may contribute to a future contender or at least be more tradeable in a year or two. Gerardo Parra would also be a possible deadline trade candidate. But would likely have too little value this offseason to deal (and if the team deals Gomez, he would be a good CF option to replace him). I am assuming he will be tendered a contract in 2015.

Then Milwaukee should follow the Cub's recent offseason patterns: pursue young, international free agents (24 year old Cuban Yasmani Tomas is an example) as well as 1-year bounceback players who make trade deadline fodder (someone like Chad Billingsly or Corey Hart).

The team is not totally torn apart. You still have young pitchers like Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson in the rotation and Will Smith and Tyler Thornburg in the pen, you still have young players like Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett, and Jean Segura to build around. And Braun likely is not going anywhere. Several of these players may be worth also extending if possible (that ship has sailed on Segura and Thornburg is hard to pin down since it is still unclear if he is destined for the bullpen or rotation in the end). Another interesting arm to consider will be Mike Fiers. He is hard to determine because he has had excellent numbers in the minors, two strong MLB showings (2012 and 2014) with a very bad 2013 in between to go along with underwhelming stuff (particularly in the fastball department) and no real prospect status. With the rebuilding he would make sense as a rotation candidate in 2015. A strong showing would make him a wise trade candidate thereafter. If he more likely falls somewhere between his excellent 2014 and poor 2013 he will instead be just a rotation filler until more worthy arms show up, since without prolonged success he just won't have enough value on the market. 

If they really wanted to restock the system they could explore dealing Peralta who has established himself enough to be worth a quality return. But with his age and controllability I have a hard time imagining a return worth doing that and I would rather pursue an extension first. 

The idea of all this is that Milwaukee aim at contention in 2017. That is enough years away to build up a strong core while still within the frame of several of their solid controllable players now. There is still enough young talent that a rebuild of this fashion would not likely lead to horrendous 100-loss campaigns like that of the early 2000s, but 85-95 loss seasons are likely in the interim. 

Some may not like it. And like I say, a case can be made to go for it in 2015. But once guys like Gallardo, Lohse, and Ramirez are gone what will this team's chances be? They have some ok replacements in the pipeline (at least in the rotation) but not enough to compete with the increasingly tough NL Central. So it seems to me the option is blow up one year early to get more returns on some of the pieces or go for it in 2015 at risk of being in a worse position when the dust settles. A case could be made for the 2015 deadline being more important, but there is more resistance towards trading prospects for 2-month rentals it seems these days, and Doug Melvin seems better historically in netting offseason returns over deadline returns. 

So unless the Brewers convince me otherwise this month and into the playoffs, I think they are better poised to get a head start on rebooting this team. What do you think?

Evangelism Set Free Part 1

It may be the most terrifying thing among so many Christians, or it is so narrowly focused and produced in such a legalistic manner it is established in formula, or it is the mark of Christian success - the word "Evangelism" strikes fear, pride, or shame into many a hearts. Like "faith", it often becomes the last "work" a Christian has to do. After all, Jesus particularly commissioned his disciples post-resurrection, and the main texts that thrust us into this mission are New Testament texts or "models", making it seem unavoidable.

In many circles the word "evangelism" invokes images of going door to door, knocking and seeking a conversation about the state of a person's immortal soul. And as we loath those groups who come to our door to do such, so we likewise loath the idea of doing it ourselves. That's to say nothing of whether we even feel equipped to do such. The other popular image this word evokes is a special day a year that is assigned where we all are to invite a nonbeliever to church and pastor preaches a special sermon about believing in Jesus and everyone makes sure they play nice and put on a welcoming atmosphere.

Well consider this part 1 of a 4-part series to trash that approach. Evangelism, like us, needs to be set free. So here and in some of the upcoming posts on this blog let us examine Evangelism in a way that is hopefully different from past approaches. Today's part will focus on the confidence God gives us for this task.

Go and make disciples...freely!

No text sets up this task more than what is known as the "great commission" of Matthew 28. There Jesus gives his final instructions to his disciples:

"All authority in heaven and on earth has been given to me. Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and teaching them everything that I have commanded you. And remember, I will be with you always, to the end of the age."

Well there you have it, Jesus told you to make disciples. There is no getting around it. That much is true. But we must face this instruction according to the same way we face every instruction that we are to teach people: according to faith in Jesus. Faith in Jesus does not do things out of threat, faith in Jesus does not fear failure. So often we hear this text and we feel unequipped to handle it, which makes us terrified of failing. But we here have two important pieces surrounding Jesus' words to make disciples:

1) All authority has been given to Christ. Everything belongs to Christ. This is the reality we evangelize out from. It tells us that this is a reality people cannot escape, thus they are to know about it. All authority is his, he is the sovereign Lord and deserves all faith and praise. Yet it means more than Christ deserves faith and praise, it means we can put our faith in him for this task. All judgement and righteousness is in his hands, and if you feel like a poor evangelist, or are timid to take it up because of how you feel you will succeed, then Jesus' hands are exactly the place you want all judgement and righteousness to be, for then it is in his merciful hands. Just as much as we live each day by the trust that our live are in God's merciful hands, so also do we face our mission, we place it in his hands and trust he will not sends us away. Confidence to approach the throne of God gives us confidence to approach others about God. This helps in a culture where we are told we have no business sharing the faith or trying to bring others to faith. All authority has been given to Christ, it is his call. Like Peter and John in Acts when they were instructed to silence, when we feel not only the pressure of failure but the pressure of threat so we to say that we must listen to God and not men. The voice of Jesus speaks over our fears: for all authority is his. That is the authority to justify us, that is the authority to resist the silence others would impose upon us.

Years ago I spoke at the International Lutheran Single Adults Conference. I was asked to lead a workshop there on "how to witness to your faith", and I encouraged the people particularly to not let the fear of failure stop us. Not only has the cross revealed God's ability to bring about his purposes in spite of (and even against) human failure, but it shows he is merciful and restores his people. Nothing cripples a will to drive others to Christ like fear, but this text should not elicit fear in us, for it does not call forth evangelism in any context apart from everything being placed in the hands of Jesus, who was triumphant even apart from rejection of the people and the failure of the disciples. This was actually hard for the people to hear. The idea of being willing to fail, or God succeeding or even God's will in our failure. But until the Gospel of God is enough for evangelism, you will always approach it in the fear of the outcome because you will approach it based on how it impacts your standing with God. To this, we must leave the victory in Christ's hands.

I think the atmosphere of futility holds us back. No one wants to engage others in faith only to witness their efforts fail. No one seems to admit to their failures. Our children and friends who abandoned the church or scorned the faith and our failed efforts to bring them back all traumatize us to the commission. They leave us with scars we fear to open. They simply stand as marks that tell us never to try again. Jesus however lets us live every day anew. God's mercies are new every morning (Lamentations 3.23). Jesus when he sends you out, he does just that, he sends you out. He isn't checking to see if you succeeded, he isn't making sure you are meeting your quota. The only thing he does is send us out - freely! Free from numbers, free from needing to be "good at it", free from a single model of evangelism, free from you needing this person to come to faith. Don't make a law out of proclaiming Jesus, don't make it something you need it to be, don't make it something you need to judge. All that authority has been given to Jesus. And he simply sends you out to all the world, letting you indiscriminately act, not picking the right people, not worrying about how the person might respond.

In Luke 10, Jesus sends out 70 disciples to go ahead of him and proclaim the kingdom of God has come near. What is amazing is he doesn't do this with expectations. That is, he does not tell them what must happen, how the people must respond. He does not let us wear our failures as scars. Instead he anticipates it, "When you enter any town, and they don't welcome you, go out into its streets and say, 'We are wiping off as a witness against you the dust of your town that clings to our feet. Know this for certain: The kingdom of God has come near.'" (Luke 10.10-11). He even tells them "Whoever listens to you listens to me. Whoever rejects you rejects Me." (v16). He takes our sense of it all and places it on him. He takes the failures on himself, he lets you shake the dust off your sandals. He lets us walk into and out of every moment of service to his mission free from the person's response. Either way, the kingdom has come near.

2) The other thing which is a well recognized verse, but not often attached to its original passage is the promise of Jesus to be with us always. If before he commissions us he does so with the freedom from others by Jesus having all authority, now we have also the promise that he comes with us in this task. If you need Jesus, whether to remind you of your task, to be the strength and refuge and Lord and Savior you require to take it on, or simply because in evangelism you find it easiest to point to Jesus - he is with you. The promise of Jesus keeps not only the commission going but the graces of God going. His continued presence means the story never is going to shift to you in regards to evangelism. And we need to hear that. Not only because of our fears of failure, but because of how fragile we may regard our faith.

Will I have faith to share? Will I become bold enough? Will I say the right thing? Like the disciples in the Gospels, we are the secondary character in evangelism. Door to door evangelism is not so much two Mormon men in white shirts knocking on a door, it is the famous painting of Christ standing at the door and knocking. That is evangelism in our lives. And if he is with us always, it means always is an occasion for him to stand and knock, always is an occasion for evangelism. Evangelism is set free when it happens not merely out of coordinated efforts (which often focus on our methods, how and when we will do it, who we will target, and so forth), it instead is to be as constant a concept as faith itself, because Christ is as constant as faith. This sets us free from narrowing the great commission to going door to door, or some Sunday a year. No, evangelism is wherever the gospel dares to be shared. We put too much into evangelism events (which then we believe must succeed). But when looked at holistically, and in light of our lives, then we get out of the realm of "how do I do evangelism" or other questions that narrow it and are success oriented to more appropriately understanding ourselves as vessels of Christ, where Christ goes to all nations just as I and other Christians do. Christ with me through the day.

What this does is simply show evangelism as faith expressed. Or put differently, evangelism instructs faith to be seen as not something only private or for specific gatherings. The presence of Jesus means faith is as public as we are, and thus our faith is to be expressed this way. This frees us. It frees us not only from narrowing evangelism to those events we deem evangelistic events (and from fear of them failing), but it also then frees us from the other implication, which is that there are moments when we "can't" do evangelism, moments that are not evangelistic. Where others are, evangelism is. We are freed from confining it, we are freed from looking at our lives as insufficient ones to be evangelical.

The ongoing presence of Jesus, towards expressing faith, towards him being the one who knocks and enters the doors of hearts should also tell us that all moments are for evangelism because all hearts are for Jesus. All authority is given to him everywhere, we make disciples of all nations, and he is with us which means he is actively seeking hearts that are in our midst. Even our own. We need not make evangelism a sharp line between the converted and unconverted. Christ comes to rule all hearts. Our hearts, the hearts of our fellow Christians are included. Doubt assails us, we know not truly the standing of any other. We must not think our faith has nothing to share to another Christian since Jesus is with us and he is everything, and has everything to share. We must not think his presence is not seeking to knock down the door of our heart. For how many can testify to how the more aware they were of their faith, the more utilized it was in life, the more real the saving presence of Jesus was to them. We don't do evangelism for ourselves to save ourselves, but in doing so we can come to know more of what it means to be saved by Jesus. As Paul puts it for the Philippians "I want to know Christ and the power of his resurrection and the sharing of his sufferings by becoming like him in his death" (Philippians 3.10) we too find this. Not through success or failure, not through works of our hands, but through the ever present Jesus and his word. And evangelism opens the reality to us, in spite of our failings in this holy calling. Since Jesus is truly there for others and can experience it through us, so we too in that moment can again experience Jesus.

The Spirit and the Word

Too often what I hear is a feeling of being ill equipped for this calling. But that is not true. For one, that attitude usually accompanies those narrowed moments, evangelism defined in relation to skills we feel we lack. It also is not true because the words themselves hold the truth. The Spirit of God sets you free from being the one to make the message true or prove its validity. The Holy Spirit is ultimately the one who carries the power of God's truth in the words we speak and the Holy Spirit is the one who creates faith. "I believe I cannot by my own power or strength believe in Jesus Christ my Lord, or come to him. Rather it is the Holy Spirit who has called me through the gospel..." as Luther's catechism teaches on the creed. The Holy Spirit uses the words to create faith. The Holy Spirit has given us gifts. Once we see evangelism in the realm of our public life, then the gifts we have in life are gifts that can be shaped and used to the glory of God. And the effect of those gifts we must entrust to the Spirit's work.

The Holy Spirit should give us the confidence in the word that we lack in ourselves. Remember, no rejection and quotas of response are not part of the way Jesus commissioned us. What he did do however was promise those he commissioned the Holy Spirit. "But you will receive power when the Holy Spirit has come on you, and you will be my witnesses in Jerusalem, in all Judea and Samaria, and to the ends of the earth." (Acts 1.8). Instead of demanding of you in evangelism Jesus gives to you. The one thing that is needed is the Holy Spirit, who has been poured out so that we could confidently evangelize. The Holy Spirit existed before Pentecost. We have references of the Spirit throughout scripture, but the Spirit was poured out then because it was in the formation and spreading of the Church that we needed the Spirit most. After all, no one says Jesus is Lord except by the Spirit (1 Cor 12.3).

It should be no surprise that Jesus tells his disciples not to worry about creating their defense or worrying about what they will say when the time comes because the Holy Spirit will teach you (Luke 12.11-12). Is anything more freeing from thinking only the well trained witnesses with conversion stories are the evangelists among us? He promises that "When He [Holy Spirit] comes, He will convict the world about sin, righteousness, and judgement" (John 16.8) and "He will guide you into all the truth." (John 16.13). You are not unequipped. The Spirit uses a whole multitude of gifts, and they are all gifts of the same Spirit.

Bo Giertz puts it real well in his work Vad Säger Guds Ord? (Literally What Does God's Word Say? but released in English under the title Preaching from the Whole Bible), when speaking of the responsibility to witness Giertz says this of the first disciples:

What was it they were lacking?
Let us think for a moment about the work that was awaiting them. They had been given the responsibility to witness about Jesus...But their task was more difficult. It was a matter of being able to preach to the people who had crucified Christ that they might understand that they had crucified the Messiah. They must be able to break through the wall of impenitence that even the Lord's own words could not shatter. 

And still more. It meant that they were called to preserve the purity of the message. To preserve their unity, to stick together even when there was no Master among them, to preach the gospel even though there was none to counsel with. All this demanded more than human powers could supply. But Jesus had never expected them to fulfill their responsibilities alone. God himself would fulfill the task with them. He would clothe them with power from on high. He would open the way for the Word by convicting men of sin and righteousness. He would give his messengers a power and a wisdom which would overcome their enemies. He would lead them into all the truth. He would preserve the vision of Christ living and untarnished. He would himself speak through their tongues and words. 

All this would take place through the Holy Spirit. Christianity is not simply knowing about Jesus and following him. It is something that can be found only where God is at work in the presence and person of the Holy Spirit. For the disciples this was a daily experience. Therefore they spoke of witnessing together with the Holy Spirit, that they and the Holy Spirit acted together, that they walked in the Spirit and by the Spirit.

I think Giertz puts it well, evangelism is Herculean. It is an impossible task, because too often we approach it as facing it alone. But that is not the reality of our faith. The reality of our faith is that God would himself see to it. Just as much as we partake in communion not to justify ourselves but to let Christ justify us, so also we partake in evangelism, not to work faith in others ourselves, but to let the Holy Spirit work faith in others. The active work of our faith is the work of the Spirit of God.

To conclude our first part, remember, even in his commission Jesus frees us so that we don't feel the burden but the freedom of the call to go and make disciples. Also remember that the Holy Spirit was promised to do this work in us, placing our faith in evangelism not in ourselves or our methods, but in God and his word to do what it says it will do. Our faith and the faith of others rests totally in the merciful hands of God, the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit.

Amen.

MLB: 10 Things I want to happen in 2014

From the stars of 2014 like Cruz and Samardzija to the struggling Rule 5 pick Wang, from the World Series to just breaking even at .500, all are featured in the Armchair Theologian's midseason pause.

Been a while since we got a little baseball love, so I thought I would take a pause here midseason with a few hopes for how the rest of the season plays out. Most are at least realistic:

1. Nelson Cruz hits 45 home runs. Like Ryan Braun in 2012, this is Cruz's "I don't need steroids to be a power hitter" season. Cruz has always been a favorite of mine. I've tracked him ever since he was traded to the Brewers by the A's for Keith Ginter (a solid replacement IF who I also enjoyed when he played for MIL). I remember looking at Cruz's minor league stats at the time and his reputation for a strong RF arm and really being excited for him to come up. Instead he was packaged in the Carlos Lee trade Melvin made with Texas which I from the get go did not like (mainly because of the inclusion of Cruz) and have often labeled as Doug Melvin's worst trade as Brewer's GM. Cruz has had a strong offensive (questionable defensive) career in Texas but was suspended last year as part of the Biogenesis scandal. Between that, his defense, and a qualifying offer he was not a popular free agent this offseason and Baltimore signed him at a bargain 8mm. Now he leads the league with 20 hr (also leads in RBI, Slugging, and OPS). The highest total of his career was 33 in 2009. I'm still a fan of his and I would just love to see him keep annihilating the baseball. He's only had about 250 PA, and so long as he is healthy he should be able to get another 300-400, which means 45 long balls is not out of the question. If he does, he should have no problem making up the lost money from this offseason's debacle.
2. Mark Buehrle wins the Cy Young award. This probably won't happen primarily because his K rate is not good enough and wins are less valued (as people recognize how players like Jeff Samardzija can be pitching amazingly and yet winless) but Buehrle is deserving of his wins. He currently leads the league with a 10-1 record to go with a 2.10 ERA through 81.1 IP. He somehow is avoiding homeruns even though he plays in a homer friendly ballpark and the ever dangerous AL East. I've never liked Buehrle, but he has been nothing short of consistent in his career: double digit wins every year except his rookie season in 2000, with an ERA under 4 in nine of those seasons, and he has pitched over 200 innings in every season except his rookie campaign. And he does so with a regularly good walk rate (career bb/9 of 2.0). I don't like him, he's not impressive, but his consistency is hard to ignore, and by the end of his career he might be like Raphael Palmiero where all of the sudden you realize he put together quite a career for himself. But given how unimpressive he is, it would be awesome to have him come out of nowhere and win the Cy Young. And if he keeps his season up, he'll have a good case for it.
3. Twins and Astros finish above .500. Baseball is more even of a sport than most realize. With exception of a few poorly run organizations, teams currently can turn their fate around within a couple of years. Indeed, sustained success is the real struggle in Major League Baseball. Gone are the years where it was always the Yankees and Braves in the postseason. The Twins and Astros are the teams that are starting to turn around from being bottom feeders. The Twins are doing it simply by having their pitching not be so much worse than the rest of the league. The two teams are currently under .500 but have all the ability to improve. The Twins have been hovering around the .500 mark all year in spite of a completely underwhelming offense with exception of Dozier and some players who have thrived in small samples (Santana and Escobar). The return of Willingham to the line-up, along with improvement from Mauer (which is not unreasonable considering his current offensive performance and no longer enduring catching) should also help. Also, they have some good young pitchers in the minors and some real bad pitchers with the big club who may be let go to clear way. So improvement is possible. The Astros, though further back are watching their talent reach the majors now. With some solid arms performing such as Dallas Keuchel, and now both Singleton and Springer at the MLB level they may be improving fast. Both teams are definitely as organizations heading in the right direction, but we'd love to see it pay dividends this year.
4. Cardinals make a bad trade. Sounds a little vindictive I know. The reality is they have been one of the best run organizations in the last 15 years and at some point I just wish they would make a dumb move, because it seems year after year they get all the breaks, their prospects pan out, and they win on the trades they make. Now they are dealing with some excess in some positions and are behind in the standings, I wonder if they will deal from their "depth" to add an impact player. If so, I just for once want it to be a blunder, the new guy to do nothing, and to know when they had to decide between Jay, Craig, Adams, Carpenter, and whoever else they might consider moving that they picked the wrong one. I mean, these guys let Albert Pujols walk and replaced him with Carlos Beltran and looked all the smarter for doing so. How does that happen?
5. Brewers - White Sox World Series. Who would've seen this one coming? But give both these teams credit for improving their teams. Milwaukee I knew was a greater force to reckon with than most realized simply because getting Braun-Ramirez for most of the season and a player who can field 1st base would vastly improve the team, not too mention the other additions. The White Sox made some smart moves this offseason. They pulled off a rare feat of getting younger and better at the same time. Credit Rick Hahn for adding so much young, but good talent. The emergence of Abreu especially is paying off big time. Though the Sox likely won't win the division, they may pull off a Wild Card. It would be an amazingly quick return to the postseason for these teams, a nice fresh World Series, and a midwest one. Chicago-Milwaukee has a nice rivalry with the Cubs, and if I remember used to have a good one with the White Sox when the Brewers were in the AL. The towns are close enough for fans to commute between each other. It could be the Hiawatha Series!
6. Blue Jays win the AL East. I love how unpredictable the AL East has become. The Jays who were pegged for greatness last year crashed and burned to the bottom of the AL East. Now they have a 4 game lead in the division. The Jays also have what might be the most dangerous line-up in baseball, especially power wise. I've never seen the ball jump off a bat like it does for Joey Bats. Most imposing and explosive swing in baseball as far as I'm concerned. And that's saying nothing of the strong cast of hitters around him. Like the Brewers, a strong winning streak is basically why they are where they are, but it may be enough. Their main concern will be shoring up their pitching. If they do, this team could be positioned for a deep post-season run. If the Jays pull off a postseason performance, every team from the AL East will have made the postseason at least once between 2012-2014.
7. Garrett Jones gets traded to the Brewers. This likely would not happen until the deadline if it did, since Miami is still very much in the playoff hunt. But given the fact that they are probably not a playoff team, especially without young ace Jose Fernandez (who joined the ranks of the Tommy John surgery victims this year) this team seems likely to fade. Jones would be an improvement to the left-handed part of the Brewer's 1B platoon of Overbay-Reynolds. While Jones is not as athletic or considered a defender by any means, Overbay's defensive numbers this year simply are not good enough to merit his spot on the roster. As I noted in a previous blog the Brewers already made a mistake by picking his unimpressive defense over Juan Francisco's bat. Especially in a strict platoon Jones will deliver quality offense (.288/.353/.542 line against righties this season, .272/.338/.493 career split against righties compared to a career .193/.235/.333 split against lefties). Not only that but he also can play the Outfield Corners, although his defense is worse there, still that versatility the Brewers could use for their bench. Using two platoons (Weeks/Gennett, Reynolds/Overbay) in which only one of those four players can handle more than one position (Reynolds can also play 3rd) is really hard on the bench, especially when a player is out day-to-day and not on the DL. The Brewers do not have a deep system, but Jones should not be an expensive get. This is an ideal match if the Marlins become sellers.
8. Wei-Chung Wang makes it the full season. I follow the Brewers most, so they get several predictions. Here is another little nugget. Wei-Chung Wang, the surprising rule 5 draft pick, the Brewers are working hard to keep. He's young, only 22, left handed, and could be a valuable prospect for the shallow system. I believe it was Assistant Gm Gord Ash who said the team views Wang as a 1st round type prospect. They see keeping him as recovering the 1st round pick they surrendered last season to sign Kyle Lohse (a move that has paid off well so far for Milwaukee, by the way). What is difficult is Wang after a strong spring started to struggle just before the season began and it carried into the season. He got roughed up bad in 3 of his 8 appearances thus far this year. The team wants to keep him, but is having a hard time bringing him in during games. This is putting added pressure on the rest of the bullpen, but if Milwaukee does not keep him on their 25 man roster, they have to offer him back to Pittsburgh for half the cost they paid for him, and he will likely be taken back in that case given his age. Thus the team is really trying to keep him in that pen, and slowly build back his confidence from his current 13.50 ERA. It's a less known story in baseball, but one Brewers fans are well aware of.
9. Giants trade for Aaron Hill. The Giants are the perfect example of a team that's good by having so many quality pieces. People praise Billy Beane for his moneyball approaches, but his rival GM across the bay deserves credit. Sabean has this ability to find talent where you don't expect it. Aubrey Huff was a perfect example a few years ago, Michael Morse is this season's example of a guy who is just a perfect piece in the puzzle. Add in a pitching staff with several guys who can any given day (or in the case of Bumgardner, every day) shut you down and this team is deserving of their record. But the injury to Scutaro has left an obvious hole at 2B. While some of the guys they have like Hicks have been better than they thought to fill in, ultimately 2B is the place for an upgrade. Hill has shown himself to be a complete player. From the time he joined ARZ in 2011-2013 he hit .300 for the team, in 2012 he hit 26 home runs (3rd time he has hit 26 or more), and he stole 14 bases. He is also considered an above average defensive 2B. Hill is struggling though some this year (.710 OPS) and really underperforming from his performance in recent years. He was a top 2B in TOR years ago, faded, was traded and had a resurgence in Arizona. Now he is fading again (along with the rest of Arizona, so they should be willing to trade him) and may be energized again by a move to SF. Even if not, he's all round enough of a player to be an upgrade for the team at 2B currently and doesn't have to be a star to be a worthwhile addition for the Giants.
10. Orioles trade for Jeff Samardzija. Shark, who is from Valparaiso (where I went to college, although he went to high school there) is destined to leave Chicago. The Cubs seem to have no interest in paying him to be on their next contender (whenever that will be). Given his excellent season and still having one more year of team control, his value will likely never be higher than it is this season. The only obstacle to him getting traded will be the Cubs' asking price. But Baltimore may be able and willing to pay it. The Orioles have a slew of young pitching prospects with Bundy, Gausman, Rodriguez, and company, they have enough young P prospects to meet a steep asking price and they may be in the position in their franchise to make such a move. For one, by having so many young P prospects they don't totally deplete their system by trading one or two, unlike other teams who may not be willing to trade their one highly regarded pitching prospect. Additionally, the Orioles have actually had some rotten luck in regards to their big name pitching prospects. At one point Arrieta and Matusz were supposed to be 1-2 fixtures in that rotation (with Britton then passing them as they did not develop). Now Britton and Matusz are relievers and Arrieta is no longer with the team (coincidentally with the Cubs). So the team may be more willing to try an established arm, especially since they lack a true ace, and free agent signing Ubaldo Jimenez has thus far disappointed. Samardzija gives them the ace they need to pair with their imposing offense. Additionally, they would control Samardzija through 2015, which is likely their best window of contention since at that time Chris Davis and Matt Wieters will be free agents (also putting them in position for 3 additional draft picks in the 2016 draft since all would likely receive qualifying offers from the team). 

So there is my evening baseball break. With some real possibilities and fun things to look forward to. 2014 has been a fun season thus far. Let's hope it stays that way.