Twins Offseason - reworking the pitching

The Twins need a new team. Plain and simple. They need one that can pitch. They have hitters, but Morneau starting to hit again, Mauer having another Mauer year, Willingham hitting 40 home runs, Span making his contract look good - none of that mattered at all given that the state of the Twins pitching. It proved more than anything the old saying that pitching wins ballgames. It is much rarer to find teams with great pitching and such a poor offense that they have a last place finish than the opposite. It may take more than pitching to make the playoffs (although with two Wild Card teams now, that may not be the case), but no matter what, that is where you start.

With that in mind, Minnesota has a long way to go. And they made their first mistake in letting Scott Baker sign with the Cubs when he expressed a willingness to return to the team at a lower salary. But that is done and past.

Here is my proposal: the team unload some of their better offensive pieces to start to put together their pitching. I think Minnesota will need to do this because they will not be able to afford all the pitchers they need via free agency.

The cost: Morneau, Willingham, and Span. As well as providing some salary relief.
The teams they deal with: Rays, Mariners, Nationals.
Here is phase one of the plan:
Justin Morneau goes to Seattle for SP Jason Vargas and utility man Chone Figgins.
Denard Span goes to Washington in return for Michael Morse and Christian Garcia.
Josh Willingham goes to Tampa for Jeremy Hellickson.

Here is my thinking:
Because of Morneau's cost and question marks, the Twins just cannot get too much for him. On one hand this may make one think it best to hold on to him, and that is fair thinking. But on the other hand there is no better time to trade him, than right now when the 1B free agent market is so thin. Seattle is desperate to get some hitters, being that rare case where pitching amounts to nothing when you have zero hitters. But it is not attractive to many free agents I imagine, and while 1B/DH needs an upgrade, they may not want to make a long term commitment, but do something now to win back fans and give Smoak/Montero more time to maybe develop into the MLB hitters they were thought to be. Morneau, being under control for only one year gives the team a short commitment so if those guys improve they are not blocked, but does not put the 1B/DH pressure completely on them. Instead, this year they can do any combination of Morneau/Smoak/Montero between those two positions, whatever works best for the team. It offers offensive upgrade but does not absorb to total risk of if Morneau struggles again or one of those players regresses further. In addition, this makes sense for Seattle because it means they are not responsible for Figgins this year, whose contract has been a disaster for them. Figgins was designated for assignment, so if he is not traded soon he will be released and the Mariners will have to eat his contract. Taking his contract off their hand offsets Morneau's large contract. That is why this all makes sense for SEA. It makes sense for Minnesota if they get Vargas in return, a pitcher who has succeeded somewhat under the radar over in Seattle. In the last three years he has pitched at least 190 innings and had two sub-4 ERAs. He is a an affordable, unimpressive, but quietly quality upgrade for a desperate Twins rotation. Figgins also would not be bad (his contract is), but given his speed and versatility, and perhaps the chance of some improvement with a fresh start, he would fit well in the Twins small ball style of baseball.


Tampa has a rare plethora of pitchers, but as usual needs to put together a line-up with limited funds. Willingham's 7 mil this year and next are very realistic amounts for the kind of offense he provides. Which Tampa needs. It seems the team would rather deal Hellickson than Price or Shields (who are better but more expensive and closer to free agency), which actually works out for the Twins because those two would cost more and this deal will give the Twins a young, controllable pitcher. Willingham also will likely never have a higher trade value. Who expected him to his 40 homeruns? Having a reasonable contract (consider he only costs 4 more million than what Jonny Gomes just signed for) for two years of control, in a market with a lot of expensive outfielders just makes this the right time to deal him. It will hurt the Twins' offense no doubt, but when you need pitching this is what you must do. It is a deal that makes a lot of sense for both teams and fills major needs for each by dealing out of their strength.
 

But moving both Willingham and Morneau will put a hole in Minnesota's lineup, and that is why they should deal Span to Washington, who wants a true CF and leadoff guy. Because the Twins have Revere, they have an adequate replacement for Span, and with leadoff-type CF's in demand they should deal him. Washington has been hesitant to commit to Morse both positionally and long term. He is older, but he has shown he can hit for average and power. It is his defense he lacks. But he would fit nicely in the Twin's lineup and help boost some lost offense. Because he can play OF or 1B it would give the team some flexibility for what kind of cheap position free agents they bring, or if they want to give Parmelee a shot at starting. Because Span has a team friendly contract, making him more desirable in what will be an expensive free agent CF market, Minnesota should demand more than Morse who is more expensive, controllable only for a year, and did miss time last year with injury. Garcia therefore is a reasonable addition. He is young, has seen a very small amount of time in the majors, but was successful. Minnesota will need to work on not just their rotation but their bullpen, and that is where he comes in.

The other alternative is not to trade Willingham and instead deal Span for a starter, that would in my opinion make Atlanta an ideal target. What makes sense here is Atlanta has other holes to fill and needs to be as budget oriented as possible, which may make Span very attractive. My guess is the return would be either Mike Minor or Tommy Hanson. Hanson once was great but had his ERA regress every year and has battled injuries. He has only topped 200 innings once in his 4 seasons, and so while he has strike-out stuff and once carried an "Ace" reputation/potential, I think that is past. Minor has done the opposite. His durability and ERA has improved, but his strike-out totals have dropped each year and so has his "potential", unlike Hanson who has at least delivered some good seasons, he has never lived up to his hype. So while they are both upgrades, I think I'd rather Hellickson and Morse to Minor/Hanson and Willingham to see the team improve in the future. And I still cannot get past Willingham will never be as valuable (trade-wise) as he is now, and not only do I think he will not repeat his 2012, but the Twins have shown they can succeed without tons of power, so long as they have enough pitching to carry them. No matter what though, given the demand for CF's, the friendly contract Span has, and the presence of Revere to help fill the void left, Span ought be dealt in some way.

So that gets the team started and really gives the rotation a boost with Hellickson and Vargas, while giving the bench Figgins, the line-up Morse, and the bullpen Garcia. This would make the team less desperate and allow them to patiently shop the free agent market for the value deals that begin to emerge in late December into January to fill in the bullpen, add another bat, maybe even get a quality starter. But the Twins cannot take a patient approach when their rotation is in the state it is in, which is why now is the time to act.

Names for them to watch as possible bargains that I think would fit in well with this team: James Loney (1B), Freddy Sanchez (2B/3B), Eric Chavez (3B), Andrew Jones (OF), Erik Bedard (SP), Brett Myers (SP/CP), Kevin Millwood (SP), Joakim Soria (CP), Jason Grilli (RP), Kyle Farnsworth (RP), Francisco Rodriguez (RP), Edwin Jackson (SP)
Note: Jackson would be a bargain in the sense that like last year, if he waits too long he may be a much more affordable addition than expected. But he would not be a bargain in the less than 2 million sort of way.