The best way to play for a contender

It seems every year we hear of a quality veteran arm, who wants to pitch for a contender. The reason being obvious, when one get towards the end of his career and has not yet won a World Series, you feel like you are missing out. It's one of those accomplishments every player wants a taste of, and so each year some pitchers will basically limit their market to the teams that look the best on paper to contend. Or they will go the way of Roy Oswalt and wait into the season to pick a contender to sign with.

Now if you want to play for a contender, Oswalt's path is not too bad of one to do. He waited, then as the team was trying to increase their competitiveness midseason he signed with them. He wasn't all that good for them though, posting an ERA close to 6. And part of that may have been his decision to wait until midseason.

That is one of the risks of waiting, you have to have the right kind of training regiment to stay in top shape, and you basically miss out on spring training - the time when you can do awful and no one cares and none of it matters. The other risk is that you have to get teams to come and see you throw, you have to not fall into obscurity. The problem is basically you have to convince teams that you are more valuable a pick up than this or that player available at the trade deadline market, and you have no currents stats to prove that to them. So this method, has worked in the past for the likes of Oswalt or Pedro Martinez, but it possesses it's own risk, the risk of still being attractive in July.

The other option is sign with the best team you can and see how it plays out. This has its own problems. The first is one has to try to predict who will be the best option on paper. Baseball has shown over and over again that every year paper means nothing. You can usually predict teams that will be better, but it is hard to predict the best. With two wild cards I will grant that is not as important as it used to be, but plenty of teams that look good end up being mediocre. But because they meant to contend, had these big expectations, they are also usually more reluctant to trade away talent to contenders midseason unless they are really out of it. These kinds of teams, hold onto whatever playoff hope they have and for the sake of their image with fans rarely trade away players and signal they have given up. So the risk of picking the team to take you to the playoffs when you only have a year or two left in your career, is you are taking a bit of a gamble as to which team that will be, and if you pick wrong, you are likely stuck with that team midseason.

The other problem with trying to get on the team at the start of the year is that the teams that seem most likely to compete may not need another starter. Short of spending time in the minors on a minor league deal with them, you just may not get signed. Instead you turn to some of these fringe contenders or second tier winning teams that are looking for every piece to push them over the edge into division leadership. Unfortunately those teams are usually coming with much more risk.

Here is a less risky option, though you never really see this done. You use a rebuilding non-contender to showcase you for half the season, then flip you for talent midseason. The arrangement includes either a no-trade clause or a handshake agreement that you will get to approve of a team before being sent there (this means signing with the Marlins won't be an option, since the Marlins have a policy of not giving no trade clauses and I would not trust any handshake or verbal agreement offered by that front office). Hand shake agreements if you can trust them are probably better, since official no trade deals sometimes affect the player's market or the team's leverage in negotiating trades with other teams. So to have the understanding needed for this, it is better for a team. The logic is simple, on a poor team your performance will stand out. It is easier to predict teams that won't be in contention (although baseball always has its surprises on that front too) than teams that will be most likely to win the division. Because while these teams can exceed expectations, short of being really strong rebuilding clubs are hesitant to commit to a midseason run, and more likely to bow out before a trade deadline if they are fringe contenders. Teams like this are in the process of building a strong core, and care more about the future than the present because of the value of prospects to their team. By having the right to approve a trade, you can also try to narrow the field to the teams that are not only best on paper, but have been the best on the field for the first half. Nearly every team wants to improve in some way midseason when contending, and those teams that had no place for a starter in February usually have openings in July due to injuries and poor performance.

The other important thing to do is to take a deal that is not too cheap that your performance is worth keeping, but not too expensive to where some teams just cannot afford you. So you want a contract probably in the 4-8 million range. Maybe on the bottom end with performance bonuses.

The most recent player on the "I want to still win a World Series before I call it a career" trail is Javier Vazquez, who did not pitch in 2012 but is seriously considering playing in 2013, especially for a contender (story in Spanish). To no surprise, some of the teams that have a chance but are not the favorites to contend like the Red Sox, Rays, and Royals are scouting him. The Nationals, who did win the division and make the playoffs last year are looking (and probably the best chance to win on paper among those teams). But if he wants to make the World Series, perhaps he should pass on all those teams.

Instead I think Vazquez should consider the Astros. No team has a more grim immediate future. The Marlins are looking pretty bad too, but the difference is the Astros are now leaving the National League Central for the American League West, the division where 3 of its four teams were contenders last year, and the Mariners figure to be better this year as well having sought out offensive upgrades. It is not going to be a pretty transition. The Astros are nowhere near contention (on paper) and have essentially traded every tradeable player (except Jed Lowrie, although I'm sure in a year he'll be gone too) in order to increase their chances of having prospects that work. Vazquez would certainly stand out on this team both in talent and availability. The Astros will no doubt have room in their rotation for him. And they no doubt will be happy to trade him for whatever they can get. There is an off chance they contend, but is there a team in baseball more likely to bow out early in order to make a trade?

Now given the division they are moving to, and the fact that Minute Maid Park is more of a hitter's park, Vazquez may think it better to play for a team that is in a division or ballpark more favorable. Well then there are names like the Padres and Twins. The problem with the Padres is that any pitcher's success is immediately written off as a Petco factor (similar to hitter's success in Colorado). It may actually limit his market in scaring off a few people. And the Padres may not be as far from contention as we think, especially if guys like Headley and Grandal build off of their strong 2013 and guys like Alonso gets back on track. Another option is the Twins. The AL Central is just a weaker division and Target Field while not overly a pitcher's park will likely swing moderately in Vazquez's favor. The Twins however are not clearly rebuilding. They still have talent and contracts. They have a franchise player in Mauer, it is Morneau's last year, they have two years of Willingham. If things go right early, they are going to go for it. While their offseason wreaks of rebuilding they have not admitted it, which leaves room to try to contend should things go right (and the Twins in the last decade have had plenty of history of things going right and shocking the Central with some of their playoff runs). But they also have a history of being an awful playoff team, only getting past the division series once in the last 11 seasons, despite six playoff appearances in that span.

One more team to consider is the Mets. The Mets also are a likely non-contenders, but the team has shown it can play above their heads in the first half, but more importantly is the fact that the Mets' GM has shown an unwillingness in the past to trade away players at the deadline unless the deal is right. They did deal Beltran, they did not deal Jose Reyes. They kept Dickey and Wright in hopes of extending them, only then did they deal Dickey when it was clear that would not happen, and it still took the offseason and the waiting game for the right deal. On one hand it has been a system that netted them an impressive return in trades, but on the other it makes it harder to imagine that this is the team to sign with and then get traded to a contender midseason. Even guys like Scott Hairston who is not necessarily in the Mets' long term plans (as they let him walk and explore the market, not working hard to retain him, though they still reportedly may bring him back) was not dealt this last deadline. That attitude of reluctance to make deals unless it is definitely right, and a willingness to carry players through the season should give Vazquez pause.

The Marlins, as I said early on are just not options with this arrangement unless they will change their stance on no-trade clauses. No verbal agreement with this team is wise, and they will trade him to whoever they want to whenever they want to. No doubt playing for the Marlins is a good way to play elsewhere, but that front office does not care if you want to go to a team with a real shot at contention. If I was a free agent in baseball, I only go to Florida if I have no chance to start elsewhere (and if I intend on playing elsewhere).

Therefore, Vazquez if he is confident he can help a contender should prove it first by helping the Astros. If he is good enough, his numbers will still stand up despite facing a tough AL West. Besides, W-L is not what most teams will be looking at, they will be looking at his peripherals like k/9, K/BB, IP, ERA, xFIP (for believers in fake stats), WAR (for believers in violent fake stats), and WHIP. If he can maintain those numbers, which I think he could if the year off did not affect him too much (he is still reportedly doing well at least velocity wise hitting 92-93mph on the radar gun) he shouldn't just resign with the Yankees again, he should go to Houston and then go on to a true contender midseason.

Whoever thought the best chance to play in the World Series might be to sign with the Houston Astros?