Monday, January 7, 2013

15 Deals that Should happen before Spring Training

As we get closer and closer to the date when pitchers and catchers report to spring training, free agent prices (which have been rather high for mediocre players this year) drop dramatically and the last big trades work themselves out as GM's try to finalize their roster for spring training. Here are 15 moves that should happen before pitchers and catchers report:

  1. Texas acquires Justin Upton from Arizona Diamondbacks. The rumors continue around trading Upton as Arizona's front office seems disillusioned with the player, and now after signing Cody Ross the team has an abundance of outfielders that includes Upton, Ross, Kubel, Parra, and Eaton. Kubel and Upton appear to be the most likely to be dealt and given Upton's friendly contract, MVP potential, and well rounded game he is going to fetch more, and his issues with the front office make it seem they would rather deal him. Texas has been pursuing Upton for some time, but talks had been stalled with their refusal to include young infielder Profar. But now that Arizona acquired a shortstop in the three-team trade with Cleveland and Cincinnati that no longer needs to be a hang up. Texas has two other top prospects who could fit the Diamondback's needs: either 3B Mike Olt or a pitching prospect like Perez or Scheppers. The teams match up, Arizona needs to make some kind of move with their crowded outfield, and Texas has missed out on so many big signings they paid Lance Berkman 10 million to be their DH. This is the move they have been waiting for.
  2. Brewers sign RHP Peter Moylan. Brewers' GM Doug Melvin has been totally reworking the bullpen this offseason, adding two good lefty relievers in Mike Gonzalez and Tom Gorzelanny. Milwaukee would do well to add a quality RHP for the pen as well and Moylan is a perfect fit. He owns a career 2.59 ERA in 7 seasons with the Braves. His issue is health, pitching only 21 games the last two seasons. But he pitched in 80 or more in 3 of the previous 4, so he could be either an injury shortened pitcher or a workhorse for the pen. It is a risk, but high reward risky players are just perfect additions to overhauling a bullpen, because they come much cheaper. And even if he pitches a shortened season, you can count it will still be of quality. 
  3. Twins sign Jair Jurrjens. It's a wonder Jurrjens wasn't originally a Twin. He fits the bill: he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, and yet has shown some seasons of success his peripherals cannot justify. Last season however was a disaster for him, which meant there was no way the Braves would take him to arbitration this year. But he fits the mold of Twins pitchers, has had success doing that, and is young. The Twins, while not admitting it, are rebuilding right now. They are not going to be making any big signings. But adding a young free agent like Jurrjens (still only 27) for 1 or 2 years is not a bad investment on their part, and likely could be an affordable one. Twins fans probably are tired of pitchers like him, but that hasn't stopped Minnesota from putting that kind of talent on the field. Might as well try one who has succeeded with that kind of talent, even as recently as 2011 (13 Wins, 2.96 ERA, all star appearance). 
  4. Mariners acquire Jed Lowrie from Houston Astros. The Mariners have been trying to fix their woeful offense, while also bringing in the walls in their stadium. But they have missed out on the big offensive free agents, settling on aging bat Ibanez (it is unclear if he will be playing the field or DHing for SEA). They made a good move in acquiring Morales from the Angels. Shortstop is the ideal place for the team to upgrade offensively, and Lowrie had a strong showing in Houston last year. The Astros are so bad that they are so far from contention (especially now that they are joining the American League West) that they would listen on Lowrie, especially for pitching, which Seattle has in abundance. Lowrie is not a big enough name they could probably avoid their best pitching prospects and still make Houston a very good offer. 
  5. Yankees resign Derek Lowe. Lowe was picked up by the Yankees after his release last season and turned in an ERA a shade over 3.00 in 17 relief appearances. While he wants to start again, he should reconsider a return to New York's pen and New York should consider him. Since the Yankees have a master plan of as many one year deals as possible this season, Lowe makes sense, since that is where he is in his career. Lowe is also a very durable pitcher, showed success in their stadium. And he can start, which is important because the Yankees have enough injury concerns that they should be equally concerning themselves with having back-up plans for the rotation. If Lowe wants to start, this may be his best shot at it. Especially if he wants to play for a winner. 
  6. Orioles sign Dallas Braden. The Orioles stunned everyone in marvelous fashion last year by ending their long stretch of losing seasons and even making the playoffs. Without a doubt they did this with their pitching, especially their bullpen. The pen looks to be strong again this year, but Baltimore should not expect that kind of historic success that they had last year from the pen. They need to offset this with their rotation. They have some great young arms, but with young arms comes uncertainty. They should add another arm into the mix for a rotation spot. If they want to do that without trading from their system for someone, they should target a guy like Braden. Dallas Braden has had an ERA under 4 for the last three seasons. Like many of the remaining free agents, injury concerns have limited his market. But if Baltimore can get him at the right price, he is the right kind of guy to throw in the mix for a rotation spot. 
  7. Twins sign Scott Podsednik. Trading away Revere and Span has everyone wondering who will man CF in Minnesota. I definitely think they should give a look at some of their young guys like Hicks, Mastroianni, and Benson for the job. But it would not hurt if they can add him cheap to throw Scotty Po into the mix. Podsednik is a great 4th OF guy. He can start, but is not good enough to be guaranteed a spot. He is excellent insurance for a team with question marks in CF or LF. This way if some of the young guys need more seasoning in the minors they can get it. And Podsednik is one of those guys who are real good midseason pick ups for contenders, so the Twins could even get a young low-level prospect possibly for him (no one great, but when you're rebuilding every prospect matters). And on the bench he can pinch hit or pinch run. Perfect for a team that has a big question mark in CF.
  8. Pirates sign Kyle Lohse. Lohse is not going to be as good as he was this year. And that is part of the problem. He wants money and years that reflects his last two seasons, but it seems I'm not the only one who questions his ability going forward. Furthermore, he lost his entire market when the Cardinals made him the "qualifying offer" necessary to make him cost a draft pick. The Pirates should capitalize on this and sign him. Pittsburgh has struggled mightily in luring free agents. This is their chance when no one else is willing to sign Lohse with draft pick compensation attached. The Pirates have a strong enough system they can afford this loss. They also failed to sign their first rounder this last year, so even if they sign Lohse, they will still have a first round pick. And they have shown the last two years that they are near contention. A stable arm would be a huge boost towards that end. Last year they reportedly offered Edwin Jackson a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal before he took his one year deal with Washington. They should make a similar offer to Lohse, maybe go as far as 3 years 36 million. It's less I'm sure than Lohse wants, but at this stage what choice does he have. Next season there may be options similar to Lohse that won't cost a draft pick, but then Pittsburgh will have a tougher job convincing those pitchers to sign. Use the leverage of a dry market to upgrade the team.
  9. Tigers sign Brian Wilson. The Tigers insist that they want to let their young pitcher Rondon close, but they would be smart to have a back-up plan. Unproven closers can blow up in your face and cost you a postseason, something the Tigers need to capitalize on while guys like Verlander, Fielder, and Cabrera are producing at the level they are. Wilson would be a great pick-up. coming back from injury and having regressed a bit the last two years, I'm not sure he will get a closer job, except with maybe the Marlins (but how many Free Agents want to sign there now). He should go somewhere where the closer job is not securely belonging to anyone and earn it. He could do that. If the Tigers are missing any piece, it is a quality reliever who can close. At the least he could boost this bullpen, and at most be the help this team needs to get back to the World Series. 
  10. Royals sign Shaun Marcum. Kansas city is rolling the dice. They traded perhaps baseball's top prospect for Pitcher James Shields to headline their rotation and hopefully give the team the boost it needs to end their drought of losing and mediocrity. By doing this, the Royals have given themselves a two year window to contend. Marcum would be a great two year addition to put in that run at contention. Marcum is no ace, but he is a great second tier pitcher. He is not the top of the rotation guy, and not dependable enough to be the big acquisition, but as we saw with when he joined Greinke as additions to Milwaukee's rotation in 2011, he can really help a rotation as a secondary addition. Since the Royals are going to try to win the division, they need to do everything they can. Two years of Marcum will greatly improve their chances in that window. To make this match more perfect, Marcum is a Kansas City native. I don't see why they have not brought him home sooner. 
  11. Mets acquire Rick Porcello from Detroit Tigers. The Mets made a hole in their rotation when they dealt Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey to Toronto. And as we have seen the last few years, the Mets have been quiet on the free agent front. Porcello seems to be the odd man out in Detroit with Anibal Sanchez returning. He is still young and controllable, so he would be an appealing piece for their team. The magic question is how much does Detroit want to trade him (and what they want in return)?
  12. Indians sign Jim Thome. We missed out on seeing Lance Berkman return to Houston for the end of his career. But we could still see Thome return to Cleveland. The cost is the real issue. Cleveland after signing Nick Swisher seems to be at about the limit of their budget. Thome has not cost much the last few seasons. But when guys like Berkman can get 10 million, it is hard to tell what Thome will expect. But Cleveland is one of the few teams that has a clear opening at DH. So Thome if he wants significant playing time, should make the sentimental journey back to the Indians. They have a need, and these kind of last hurrahs are just good for baseball and the fans. Even if he struggles, he'll be appreciated if he returns. But given his career, and his ability to still get on base and hit big home runs, he's still likely to give them some quality production. 
  13. Yankees sign Brandon Inge. This deal would make so much sense for the Yankees, because they could use a righty bat. Inge is a versatile fielder, with experience at catcher, 3B, and OF. Coincidentally the Yankees have only lefty hitting outfielders, hope that Kevin Youkilis will return to form at 3B, and have an unproven tandem at C. Inge is particularly dangerous against LHP, a tool the Yankees could use. Given his versatility and their need for a righty bat, the Yankees should have no trouble finding him AB's. And he can hardly expect more than a one year deal (maybe even a minor league deal), which should definitely be to the Yankee's liking.
  14. Phillies sign Scott Hairston. The Phillies are supposedly still looking for outfield help, and a good righty bat for outfield makes the most sense. They haven't had a good righty bat since Jason Worth left. Hairston is not as good as Worth to be sure, but would give them another bat in the mix, to either play a corner or platoon with someone. He showed this year he can bring some thump, particularly against LHP (.550 slugging 2012). He'd be great to mix into their OF. And if he can hit 20 home runs in the Mets' stadium, just think of what he could do in the Phillies' homer friendly park!
  15. Athletics signs Aledmys Diaz. Funny enough, this would be the second international free agent shortstop Oakland would sign this offseason were they to do this. Earlier in the offseason Oakland signed Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima who will be their immediate shortstop. But Japanese shortstops have been no sure thing in the US. It is unclear how he will perform. Therefore the A's should already have another option in place should he fail or simply for when he reaches the end of his contract. And that option should be the 23 year old Cuban shortstop. Young Cuban players draw a lot of interest, but Oakland won out on Cespedes last year which turned out to be a good move, so I suspect given the uncertainty long term at the position and their recent success with Cuban free agents they will make a push for him. And they should.

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