MLB: Predicting the Brewer's Season

In a previous post I gave my predictions on the breakdown of the MLB 2013 season. In that post I picked the Brewers for dead last in the NL Central. A grim thought for me since I am a Brewers fan. Although, things have changed some in the NL central since that post, so let me break out the intangibles that may determine the fate of the Brewers, and give some predictions for this team:

The Difference Makers:

Will Braun get suspended...again...ish? Ryan Braun is the team MVP, really he should be the league MVP but that will likely never happen again. He is the franchise player and is currently set to be a lifetime Brewer. Unfortunately, we are left to ask will he play or be suspended. This question was all the rage last year when his confidential test was leaked to the media before he could appeal. Last year the answer was no, he was not suspended. And he followed up with a superb year, putting the steroid accusation behind him (where Prince used to be) and had an MVP worthy season. Unfortunately for Braun, the steroid issue has returned with the Miami clinic investigation. And Braun is said to be MLB's Public Enemy #1 in that investigation because of his successful appeal of the system last year. This time it will supposedly be much harder for MLB to impose suspensions without a positive test, but it is not impossible. And since Braun may be their primary target, the Milwaukee Brewers and their fans know this season's biggest need for success is to have Braun healthy and not suspended. Braun has given an explanation for why his name came up in the Miami records (consulting them for his appeal last year), and if it is true you would think it would not be hard to prove. But we will see if it holds. I think in this instance he will not be suspended, despite MLB's best efforts because the circumstances are harder to prove, especially when the Miami news will not relinquish the records to MLB.

Is Kyle Lohse worth his weight in gold? Given the going rate of mediocre pitchers this offseason, he likely is (at least comparatively). The bigger issue was if he was worth a draft pick, and Lohse will have to be a difference maker, a real difference maker for at least one of his three seasons to make him worth that cost. I would have taken two years of Dempster at the same cost than three years of Lohse, even though Lohse may be better. But that draft pick is a high price for a pitcher who is not without question marks. But if he can in any way approach last seasons numbers he will be worth it. 200 innings of about 3.00 ERA ball is good. That's what Milwaukee's rotation will need if they want to come close to competing. As Milwaukee free agent pitchers do, I expect his first season to be solid but underwhelming, probably 200 innings, 12 wins, and an ERA more in the high 3's.

Playing without Hart. I hate when teams seem to play without heart. It is also tough when Milwaukee plays without Cory Hart, whose bat they rely on to provide some thump. Hart may be the NL version of Nick Swisher. He is not a star, but he quietly puts up the numbers. Unfortunately Hart is starting the year injured. Milwaukee will need him back quick because of how futile the bench is. When Hart went down I was not too worried because I figured Gamel would step in and prove his place on the roster. Unfortunately shortly after Hart was gone we lost Gamel for the season, a blow bigger than I think most realize. And just to make it worse the other 1B options just did not step up. Tyler Green is looking more and more like a solid minor leaguer who just cannot face MLB pitching. I think he also made a mistake by playing in the World Baseball Classic. I get the desire to play, but he should have been focused on making this team. Perhaps our top minor league bat Morris then was supposed to step in and show just a little earlier than planned what he could do. What was great about that is we would have had a better idea on whether or not this team needs to extend Hart (I don't think they will). But he failed to impress and now our 1B will be filled with Alex Gonzalez. I was ok with Gonzalez as a SS, but I'm not ok with him as our 1B, and so Hart needs to get back quick. I predict that Gonzalez will not disappoint my expectation of disappointment when it comes to his bat at 1B.

Help me Khris Davis, your my only hope. Davis had a great spring, leading the Brewer's bats with his thump. His only real problem is this: he plays LF (where Braun plays). LF and nothing else. And so he has no real place on this team. So Milwaukee will try to make him a valuable bench off the bat. Originally I saw Gamel for this role (Gamel was more versatile though), not too mention occasional PH has not been Gamel's strong suit. But Milwaukee has lacked a good bench bat. Jim Edmonds may have been our last good bench bat (to start the season, Jerry Hairston Jr. was an excellent midseason pick-up in 2011). Well Davis is here and that's all he can be at the moment. So he needs to step up for a relatively unimpressive bench that also features former starting shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, rookie outfielder Logan Shafer, and back-up catcher Martin Maldonado, who had a strong showing last year but will only PH sparingly. Davis getting a spot means he is gonna get ABs (you don't bring up a top prospect and not use him, and this is the best way he can be used) off the bench. If Braun does get suspended he will have to sub for the team's star. Also of note is that this year with the Astros going to the AL, interleague play will no longer be something everyone does in the middle of the season, it will happen year round. This system puts the NL at even more of a disadvantage than they already largely are in interleague play, since teams with weaker benches might call up a hitter whose position is currently blocked just for interleague play to give that player a showing and add another bat into the DH mix (Brewers did this with Fielder when Overbay was still the 1B), but now with interleague all year you cannot call up a prospect for a two week showing. Thus Davis will likely be the first pick for DH duty, which will be quite essential for such play all year. As the fallback on a suspended Braun, the main PH bat on an otherwise weak bench, and the obvious DH for season long interleague play, the Crew is actually really relying on rookie Davis to make the jump and adjustment successfully. My guess is it will not be that great a year for him. He is making a big jump, and not playing consistently, and that is asking a lot. Expect some power but low average and on-base percentage and a lot of strikeouts. I would be surprised to see him stay on the team all year because of inconsistency and necessary roster moves for when guys like Hart and Rogers return from the DL.

Will the final innings be scary or secure? This is indeed a major question for Milwaukee. Really last year's struggle falls on no one more than the bullpen that had a league worst ERA. Whereas in their record 96 win 2011 season, the bullpen was unbelievable. K-Rod/Axford became an enviable 8th/9th inning tandem. But last year was the opposite. Axford blew up as a closer, lost the role for a while until it was clear the rest of the bullpen was so bad there was no one to take the role over. He needs to come back big. And he is really the only man returning (not counting Jim Henderson who was called up midseason). Talk about a makeover. The team traded for righthander Badenhop, and signed a pair of lefties in Gonzalez and Gorzelanny. In addition to Axford, Henderson, Badenhop, Gonzalez, and Gorzelanny the other three spots (you heard that right, the team is beginning the season with a 13 man pitching staff) go to Lefty Chris Narveson, who is returning from injury was bumped from the rotation to the pen when the Brewers added Lohse (and was a good team player in his attitude about the decision to get bumped), Brandon Kintzler who has had brief opportunities with the team gets a spot, and the final spot was won out by Alfredo Figaro. 3 lefties is going to be nice when facing teams like Cincinnati but may be a disaster against teams like St. Louis. Milwaukee has rarely carried more than one lefty in the pen in the last ten years (in some years going most of the year with no lefty specialist) so it will be interesting to see how things work out. But those lefties may be the key to this team's success. Gonzo and Gorzo (if I may call them that) both had strong years in Washington last year, and hopefully can replicate. Badenhop is basically Kameron Loe 2.0. I think Axford may recover. Like many I am terrified of the similarity to Derek Turnbow, but Axford is a better pitcher and his delivery seems easier to fix mechanical problems to than Turnbow's. I think he will come back strong. My bigger concern is the 7th/8th innings and how stable that will be, because while I can see several guys maybe handling those roles, none of them have me convinced that inning is safe. Bullpens are the easiest thing to fix and hardest to predict. They should be better this year if only because they can't get much worse, but with some inexperienced arms in the rotation, I expect a high work load and late season struggles for this pen, the time of the season when you want to see those struggles least.

Who regresses and who progresses? The Brewers have a series of emerging starters who had strong showings last season for Milwaukee. Fiers was lights out for some time then fell apart at season's end. Top prospect Peralta got himself under control in the second half and made the most of a late season call up. Former first rounder Mark Rogers showed once again he is an arm worth waiting for. And waiver wire pick-up Marco Estrada quietly had a great season striking out more than a batter an inning, only walking 1.9 batters per 9 innings which led to a K/BB ratio of nearly 5 and a WHIP of 1.14. Those numbers are good enough to suggest he could do even better than his strong 3.64 ERA. The real question is how will these same arms look this year? Estrada had great peripherals and uses an excellent change. I think with a full season as starter he will put up a solid ERA like last year but some of his other peripherals will regress slightly. Nonetheless, coming even close to that production for a full season is a step forward. Fiers I expect will regress. He relies heavily on deception and his offspeed stuff, and while some think his arm just wore out by season end, I'm more concerned that teams were starting to figure him out. But if he can give a strong half season that may be all they ask from him, given Rogers and Narveson can also start. With a half season he might be able to maintain those numbers, with a full season I expect some more regression. Rogers is starting on the DL, and had a poor spring (not too mention lower velocity). Hopefully those spring woes were tied to arm fatigue and the DL stint will take care of that. I think his season really depends on his health. His control can be concerning too, but from the start it has been his health that has held him back, and likely will hold him back to only some late season starting after a year in the pen. Peralta is the one I would count on for the biggest season, perhaps even in the Rookie of the Year race. He throws hard with good sink and I think he is here to stay. 160 IP, 130 k's, 11 wins, and an era in the mid to upper threes seems within reach for him. Some of the pressure is off these guys with the addition of Lohse, but since Milwaukee started winning again it has always shown pitching is the one weak spot that determines how far this team can go. So they do need at least two of these guys to progress.

One team can make a difference. The Astros have left the National League, and this will have an impact on the season for NL Central teams, particularly because when you get to play such a poor team so many times it gives you a few extra wins. The Astros leaving could mean some good news for the Brewers and some bad news. The good news is that the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals may miss Houston more. According to B-R, the Reds went 10-5 against Houston last season, the Pirates went 12-5, and the Cardinals went 11-4. The Brewers on the other hand went 9-8. For those interested the Cubs were 8-7 against them. I heard somewhere (cannot remember where) that the loss of the Astros could mean each NL Central team will have about 3 fewer wins this year than they would were the Astros in the division. But as you can see, the impact in the standings may be much worse for some of the other teams expected to compete in the division. Because the loss of the Astros may not be as big on Milwaukee as these teams, having a 100 loss team leave the division may actually help them in that it will hurt them less, allowing them to make up some lost ground. However, it will likely cost the Brewers at least a win or two as well, and while this loss may help them pull closer to their division rivals it may draw them further from the wild card race, making winning the division absolutely essential. My prediction is that the standings will be a bit closer in the NLC than years past because the top teams won't be beating up on the boys from the cellar. That said, I do think one should expect it to be the division or nothing if one wishes to make the playoffs.

Will the Fire Sale in Chicago Continue? The Cubs while not making themselves contenders, did make themselves a lot better by adding enough solid bounceback candidates and pitching improvements that this team will not be as bad as last year. That said, many of these players are suspiciously signed short term and clearly are not in Chicago's long term plan. This leads me to suspect that Theo is preparing for a busy trade deadline that could see Chicago unloading a bunch of players for prospects. This means playing the Cubs in the first half will likely be more difficult than in the second half. The Brewers play 3 series against Chicago before the trade deadline and two afterwards. However the third series prior to the deadline is in the final days leading up to the deadline. So the question is will most of the deals go to the wire, or will Chicago sell sooner and make that series easier on them as well? For the Cardinals it is about even before and after the deadline. The Reds will play the Cubs more in the first part of the season. This again may then help Milwaukee gain ground against the division favorites.

Who knows how well Gomez does? Gomez doesn't even know. In fact rash hard play without really thinking has plagued Gomez's game for some time. Failing to hit a cut-off man, showing no patience at the plate, and getting power hungry are just some examples of how his game of high energy but no thinking has really held him back. Last year though he made tremendous strides. His average was at least respectable, and he approached 20HR/30SB status, falling just a few homers short. Milwaukee decided to give him a contract extension which could prove to be a slight over pay (basically paying for speed and defense only) or a tremendous savings if Gomez continues to mature. I honestly am not sure what to expect from Gomez. The only thing I would say is do not count on him having some OBP in the .330s or higher. I think if his power continues to show he'll get more walks because he'll clearly be pitched around. But he is such a hungry player he is gonna chase a ton still. I think it would be realistic to expect him to produce similar to last year except with more SBs. Numbers like OBP are really probably only going to go as far as his batting average will carry him, which means he will need a really good BABIP for how much he strikes out to have an OBP much higher than it has been the last few seasons.

Final Predictions

Milwaukee is better since I last predicted their fate. It seems less likely that Braun will be suspended and Lohse definitely improves the rotation. While the bullpen does not breath assurance it seems destined to be better than last year. But I think between the significant loss of Hart early, and really the poor depth this team has (except maybe in starting pitching, but even then there is no real depth in experienced starting pitching) will doom this team. Alex Gonzalez starting at 1B and the team last minute signing Yuni B because he was a superior option for their bench indicates how bad the depth is for this team. Along with these intangibles is needing guys like Aoki and Ramirez to continue performing, Weeks to bounce back, Lohse to not suffer "I'm not in St. Louis anymore Toto" syndrome, and just a lot of other ifs that are not as reliable for this team as it is for other teams in this division. Milwaukee has the pieces to compete, maybe even win the division if someone steps up big time and some other teams suffer disappointments, but I think really this is a middle of the pack kind of team, hovering around .500 again this year. Maybe a bit better than last.

Predicted Record: 84-78
Predicted Place: 3rd Place in NL Central

HR Leader: Ryan Braun
RBI Leader: Ryan Braun
SB Leader: Carlos Gomez
Big Performer: Norichika Aoki
Big Letdown: Martin Maldonado
Wins Leader: Yovani Gallardo
K's Leader: Yovani Gallardo
IP Leader: Kyle Lohse
Saves Leader: John Axford
Rookie to Watch: Wily Peralta
First Player to be cut/sent down: Alfredo Figaro
Most Likely to be Boo'ed: Kyle Lohse (at home) Ryan Braun (on the road)
2013 All Star: Ryan Braun, Yavani Gallardo
Worst Managing Moment of 2013: Alex Gonzalez starting at 1B is surpassed in disappointment when he is pulled for Yuniesky Betancourt to pinch hit.
Best Managing Moment of 2013: Fiers temporarily shut down mid-season, with Narveson and Rogers getting a crack at the rotation.
Best GM move of the offseason: Gonzo/Gorzo additions to the bullpen
Worst GM move of offseason: Last minute signing of fan nemesis Yuni Betancourt.
Best GM move during season: waiver wire pick up to boost bench.
Worst GM move during season: To open a roster spot due to Cory Hart's activation from the DL the team sends Khris Davis down instead of a pitcher thus giving Milwaukee a four man bench of Maldonado, Gonzalez, Betancourt, and Shafer.