Why Milwaukee Should Consider Beachy

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The trade of Yovanni Gallardo made a lot of sense for Milwaukee. They already had an in-house replacement in Nelson, were stretched thin in payroll, and had other needs to address. All the while Gallardo was destined to walk in free agency next season with the only compensation being a draft pick IF he played well enough to merit one (to be clear I do think he would have and will receive one from Texas, I only mean to say that there is risk involved in planning on his free agency to produce compensation for the loss). Therefore to get three prospects, including two who are major league ready or close was a good deal.

It also opened up a spot in the rotation which as of now is slotted for Jimmy Nelson. This is actually another move I am ok with. Gallardo was a solid pitcher. He never became a true ace in the league, but was always top end of the rotation for our team. But you can also guess what you are going to get: 170-210 IP, 3.40-3.90 ERA, strong k-gb/fb ratios (I combine the two together because as Gallardo's strikeout ability has decreased his ability to generate groundballs has increased). With Nelson it is hard to say. The kid has an unimpressive first year in traditional stats (2-9, 4.93 ERA, 7.4k/9), but he did have a much more solid FIP of 3.78. Now overall I really don't think much of the FIP, in fact I think less of it than I do of WAR, especially when I investigated the system of calculating FIP. I particularly don't think much of it when it is used to say someone was better/worse than they actually were. No, ERA is better in determining how they ACTUALLY were. Where FIP has value is in calculating what you might expect to be more consistent stats to determine success level going forward. Thus FIP is helpful in determining if a year was more likely a fluke or not, but not as helpful in my mind in determining the actual performance of the pitcher. After all, the notion that your performance had nothing to do with how your pitching played to your team's strengths/weaknesses on the field is ridiculous. Baseball is a team sport, and thus team stats are absolutely valid determinations of a player's contribution to a team. ERA is thus a more valid stat in my estimation than FIP. But since we are looking forward I'll use it here, since statistics do show the validity of using it to help better expect future performance levels.

With that in mind, that's a good thing. Seeing Nelson projecting with an ERA not far from the range Gallardo was producing for the team. To further this optimism one might look at this series of projections for him. While they range in estimating an ERA between 3.59-4.37, they all agree with FIP that Nelson's ERA seems destined to come down. Nelson's minor league numbers would also indicate he is better as well, possessing a 3.12 ERA over 563.1 MiLB IP and being ranked as the team's #1 pitching prospect last season. And he certainly didn't disappoint in that ranking in AAA last year delivering his best season in the minors: 10-2, 1.46 ERA, 9.2 k/9, 0.919 WHIP. Such dominance at the highest minor league level along with these projections should give us hope, especially when Nelson recently stated he did not use the same approach from AAA in the majors, suggesting if his methodology works possibly even greater numbers than projected.

What should however be of the greatest concern to Brewer fans then is not how well Nelson will do on the mound, but how many innings he can give. His highest total in the minors was 152IP, and only one of those projections anticipated more than 160IP for the year. Where Brewer fans need to be concerned is where those other IP will come from, not only in terms of the effect on the bullpen (and last year's second half should remind us that a warn out bullpen makes a difference) but in terms of depth should someone get injured, a spot start be needed, or the Brewers shut Nelson down late in the season. This is particularly important because the team traded longtime swing-man Marco Estrada and so along with Nelson is another unproven arm in Mike Fiers, who likewise has never pitched a full MLB season. While he projects even better than Nelson in both ERA and IP, he too still is a bit unknown, especially since Fiers is a guy who seems to deliver above his talent level. And you just don't know whether to expect the Mike Fiers of 2012 & 2014 who was one of the best starters on the staff (and went through stretches pitching like one of the best starters in the league!) or the Mike Fiers of 2013 who looked like he belonged in AA. I think the majority of data and the other variables all happening suggest he is closer to the dominant Mike Fiers, but how close over a full season is the question. 

With two relative mysteries in the rotation (which I'm not against, in fact I think they both earned their right to pitch for the 2015 Brewers) depth does become a serious question. If for some reason the Brewers need to go beyond their starting 5 (which almost always happens in baseball, so much that it is special to not have to) let's take a look at who that might be with the roster as it stands:

1. Wei-Chung Wang: The Rule 5 Pick who stuck with the team last year (mainly because they were able to stow him away in the DL the second half of the year) is now the Brewer's to keep, and the plan appears to be to stretch him out as a starter. Wang was dreadful last season for the Brewers, but had a great spring and hopefully with a little refining will be a solid asset for the team. I don't think he'll be back in the majors this year, but he is the highest rated pitcher in the system by Baseball America and does have MLB experience, so a strong spring and start to the season in the minors may fast-track him to getting another shot, this time as a starter.
2. Taylor Jungmann: Along with Wang, Jungmann is the only advanced pitcher among the team's top 10 prospects (no other pitcher on the list pitched above High A ball). Jungmann is also, like Wang, on the 40 man roster. Also being a former 1st round pick, taken out of college so he could be fast-tracked he may be the most likely one from AAA to get the first call-up should Milwaukee need a pitcher.
3. Johnny Hellweg: If Jungmann does not get first crack of a rotation spot, Hellweg would likely be the other to get the call-up. Just a year ago he was the team's #4 prospect. He has a big arm and strong minor league numbers. But his first crack at the majors was a disaster, followed up by a year lost to injury, and he may soon become a power reliever rather than a starter as some have speculated he was destined for. 
4. Will Smith: When first acquired from Kansas City Melvin indicated they wanted to try him as a starter and perhaps if an opening appeared that may yet happen. But after his dominant first half last year and strong overall career numbers as a relief pitcher I think he has settled into the pen and likely won't be transitioning back to the rotation.
5. Tyler Thornburg: his situation is kinda similar to Smith in that he was so good out of the pen last year until he got hurt the team may not want to move him back to the rotation (especially with the concern for his arm injury happening again and requiring Tommy John surgery which he just narrowly avoided), and like Hellweg many have said Thornburg seems like a guy destined for the pen anyways. All those are against him, but he does have going for him that he really shined in his rotation audition in 2013 going 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA and most importantly, all 7 of his starts were quality starts, which shows the ability to go deep into games.
6. Dontrelle Willis: signed to a MiLB deal with an invite to Spring Training is Willis, seeking to make a comeback bid. Personally I see Willis, if he makes the team more likely in a LOOGY capacity. I could be wrong, but he's been out of baseball for a couple years having to pitch in the independent leagues, he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2011 and hasn't pitched well since 2006, so I don't really have any expectations for him nor should anyone else. The recent addition of Neal Cotts also probably makes his chances of pitching out of the pen unlikely unless someone gets hurt.

So you can see the initial options are either not great or not reliable. All this leads me to the purpose of this blog! Milwaukee needs to add another pitcher and I think Brandon Beachy could fit the bill.

Beachy should not be counted on for a lot of innings. He's too much of an injury concern, it's not even clear to me if he'll be ready by opening day. But the Brewers don't need him to fill a hole in the rotation, they need him to fill one that may arise as the season wears on. What's nice about Beachy is that when healthy he has delivered some good numbers as evidenced by a career 3.23 ERA (121 ERA+), 1.132 WHIP, and 9.2 k/9. Those are difference maker numbers. As it stands, only Thornburg and Hellweg appear to be starters who could be difference makers down the stretch. 

Along with having the numbers that leave you excited, Beachy also has age on his side, being 28 and entering his prime years. He also comes with an additional year of team control by arbitration if he were signed. The upside to this is that Kyle Lohse will be a free agent at season's end as well and may not be returning, thus the team will have an opening in the 2016 rotation anyways that he could fill/compete for, which after a full season's return from his 2nd Tommy J surgery he might be more stretched out and able to handle for a majority of the season. 

Lastly is cost. Beachy only earned 1.4mm last season, and on the free agent market his former teammate Kris Medlen (also returning from 2nd TJ surgery) received a two year deal (with an option) that only guaranteed 8.5mm (2mm in 2015, 5.5mm in 2016, 1mm buyout on a 10mm option), and that was earlier in the offseason and with a better track record. That leaves me to believe Milwaukee could have Beachy for less, perhaps 6.5mm guaranteed (2mm, 4mm, 500k buyout of a 9mm option) if they sought a similar structure, or they could offer a one year deal with incentives (maybe 800k guaranteed with a couple million in incentives based on starts or IP) and have the option of controlling him another season via arbitration (which also gives the option to non-tender him if he isn't able to perform). Either way, Milwaukee would have a real shot at an affordable and controllable arm that delivers high quality when on the mound.

It seems to me this would be a good arrangement for Beachy as well. By signing with a team that has little depth and several starters that are relatively unproven (not to mention Matt Garza who has a long history of injury concerns) he's got a good chance at logging some innings and getting into the rotation. Additionally this team is a fringe contender, which at least offers the attraction of the possibility of making the playoffs which most teams with multiple question marks in the rotation are probably less likely to offer. It also is the National League which is simply a better place to be if you want to regain some value. Although Miller Park is a hitters park, particularly a homerun ballpark which may be somewhat disconcerning, but not with the reputation like the Reds' or Phillies' or Rockies' parks have.

To play for the whole season, the Brewers need to add somebody. With limited payroll space and the need for things to break right to make the playoffs, they should take a risk on a guy like Beachy rather than only making signings like the Willis signing. More likely to find lightning in that bottle if you ask me.