With the news coming out that two-way Japanese star Shohei Otani's team intends to post him so that he may pursue a career in the MLB, it's time for fans to start dreaming big. Because Otani desires to come and play at a time when his earning power is so limited, it means every team really has a chance at face value. Otani is not coming simply for the money, and the difference in what teams can pay under the current international signing restrictions is so small that signing bonus will likely not be a factor. Which means small market teams have an equal chance at signing him.
The bigger question, of course, then is what does Otani care about when picking a team? Some things are out of a team's control such as if he wants to go to teams that have repeatedly added and integrated Japanese talent - New York, Seattle, and Los Angeles all come to mind as examples. If Otani is very metropolitan and wants to be in a city like New York or Chicago there is little other teams can do. He might care about conditioning training, use of analytics, or pitching coaches - the kind of thing that teams can control and may be using as they pitch their team to him but as fans we typically know less about.
The main topic of discussion then are usually two-fold: will teams let him be a two-way player and will they work out an unofficial, good-faith extension agreement that Otani could potentially sign within a year of joining the team?
It is for these reasons that Milwaukee could be a good destination for him.
Before going forward, it is worth linking for you if you have not read it Chuck Wasserstrom's assembled scouting report of Otani in which he sums up his conversations with scouts in this way:
And the overall consensus: They haven’t seen a guy like Otani in all of their combined years of scouting.
This is why his potential availability to a team like the Brewers is so monumental. He could be a franchise icon when it is all said and done.
The Brewers have an enormous amount of financial flexability, with their only commitments beyond 2018 being to Braun, Anderson, and Thames - the latter two being at very affordable rates. This is why MLBtraderumors keeps tossing around the idea that Milwaukee should make a big free agent splash when some big market teams are taking a back seat in free agency this year. But why give 25mm a year to an over 30 pitcher with some red flags like Jake Arrieta instead of giving it to a still entering his prime - two way player Otani? An ace quality starter could put the Brewers in a good place to contend. And while I've already posited that they may already have that in Josh Hader and might be better served focusing on replacing him in the bullpen at a more affordable price in my offseason plan for the Brew Crew, Otani is of the pedigree that even if you do something like move Hader to the rotation, you want to add him nonetheless.
So how does Milwaukee use its financial flexability? By promising one of two contracts. See, Otani will obviously be gambling on himself if he takes a gentlemen's agreement for a future extension. And since he technically has not competed yet, there is always the possibility of a flop (in which case the team might thank the stars they dodged a bullet and not extend him to the big contract he would get if he were an unrestricted free agent). Milwaukee should say that 'no matter what we will pay you'. Offer the financial security. Just say there will be two tiers based on that first year: tier one is a "late signing bonus" if you will. Say 40-60mm, even if he stinks or gets injured, they promise to pay him that much. The second is then the "merit pay", so if he performs anywhere near expectation you give him 20-30mm AAV over 8 years. This promise assures Otani that he will become a rich man no matter what. Other options include contracts of low base but tons of incentives (like Meada signed with LA), or contracts with opt-outs either into free agency or arbitration (since a good two-way player could shatter arbitration records), no-trade clauses, etc. The bottom line is this team has the room to make some more financial promises than a lot of small market clubs and they should take the risk with them and get creative with contract offers.
But the big reason I think Milwaukee is a good fit is in Ryan Braun, they are in a good spot to offer Otani several starts a week in LF. I often have read the speculation that AL teams may have an advantage with the DH for Otani, to protect his health as a hitter-pitcher. But if he really wants to field, Milwaukee is the place to do it. Braun needs regularly scheduled rest, therefore giving Otani several starts in the OF a week is totally doable, and in fact good for Braun. But the team has a good player for the days Otani needs to rest/pitch, which would be the challenge for other teams in attracting/spending on such a high-quality player. But the Brewers already have that high quality player on contract and virtually untradeable. In a five day rotation Braun would start three days and Otani two. He would also get to hit in games he pitches being an NL team. This allows him to rest the day prior and after a start, which to me would seem the most logical/important times to rest him. He and Braun would each get to play/hit in 3 out of every 5 games. It keeps them both rested and hopefully performing. And since Otani appears to want to prove himself in the majors, I think he wants to be a two-way player and actually field as well as hit and pitch. This allows that, solves a team need of giving Braun rest, and yet the team hardly suffers for days when Braun or Otani are not in the line-up by having two high quality hitters. On games Otani pitches, it will give an NL team an AL line-up advantage.
With Milwaukee's success last year and strong minor league system, they can also convince Otani that this team will be ready to compete both immediately and in the near future. Additionally, since they missed the playoffs narrowly, Otani gets the opportunity to be the hero. Players who become the essential piece for a franchise's success become icons. There is a pride and image element here he can claim by joining this team. If he wants to prove himself, what better way than by being the missing piece to their success?
To be clear, this entire post is kind of a dream post. I realize it is a long shot since the Brewers will literally be competing with every MLB team and every team will be spinning why they are a good fit. All I'm saying is the Brewers should not be counted out because they are small market or National League. They should instead be taken seriously as a real contender to add this guy to the ranks of Brewer greats.
No comments:
Post a Comment