Monday, April 1, 2013

MLB: Predicting the Brewer's Season


In a previous post I gave my predictions on the breakdown of the MLB 2013 season. In that post I picked the Brewers for dead last in the NL Central. A grim thought for me since I am a Brewers fan. Although, things have changed some in the NL central since that post, so let me break out the intangibles that may determine the fate of the Brewers, and give some predictions for this team:

The Difference Makers:

Will Braun get suspended...again...ish? Ryan Braun is the team MVP, really he should be the league MVP but that will likely never happen again. He is the franchise player and is currently set to be a lifetime Brewer. Unfortunately, we are left to ask will he play or be suspended. This question was all the rage last year when his confidential test was leaked to the media before he could appeal. Last year the answer was no, he was not suspended. And he followed up with a superb year, putting the steroid accusation behind him (where Prince used to be) and had an MVP worthy season. Unfortunately for Braun, the steroid issue has returned with the Miami clinic investigation. And Braun is said to be MLB's Public Enemy #1 in that investigation because of his successful appeal of the system last year. This time it will supposedly be much harder for MLB to impose suspensions without a positive test, but it is not impossible. And since Braun may be their primary target, the Milwaukee Brewers and their fans know this season's biggest need for success is to have Braun healthy and not suspended. Braun has given an explanation for why his name came up in the Miami records (consulting them for his appeal last year), and if it is true you would think it would not be hard to prove. But we will see if it holds. I think in this instance he will not be suspended, despite MLB's best efforts because the circumstances are harder to prove, especially when the Miami news will not relinquish the records to MLB.

Is Kyle Lohse worth his weight in gold? Given the going rate of mediocre pitchers this offseason, he likely is (at least comparatively). The bigger issue was if he was worth a draft pick, and Lohse will have to be a difference maker, a real difference maker for at least one of his three seasons to make him worth that cost. I would have taken two years of Dempster at the same cost than three years of Lohse, even though Lohse may be better. But that draft pick is a high price for a pitcher who is not without question marks. But if he can in any way approach last seasons numbers he will be worth it. 200 innings of about 3.00 ERA ball is good. That's what Milwaukee's rotation will need if they want to come close to competing. As Milwaukee free agent pitchers do, I expect his first season to be solid but underwhelming, probably 200 innings, 12 wins, and an ERA more in the high 3's.

Playing without Hart. I hate when teams seem to play without heart. It is also tough when Milwaukee plays without Cory Hart, whose bat they rely on to provide some thump. Hart may be the NL version of Nick Swisher. He is not a star, but he quietly puts up the numbers. Unfortunately Hart is starting the year injured. Milwaukee will need him back quick because of how futile the bench is. When Hart went down I was not too worried because I figured Gamel would step in and prove his place on the roster. Unfortunately shortly after Hart was gone we lost Gamel for the season, a blow bigger than I think most realize. And just to make it worse the other 1B options just did not step up. Tyler Green is looking more and more like a solid minor leaguer who just cannot face MLB pitching. I think he also made a mistake by playing in the World Baseball Classic. I get the desire to play, but he should have been focused on making this team. Perhaps our top minor league bat Morris then was supposed to step in and show just a little earlier than planned what he could do. What was great about that is we would have had a better idea on whether or not this team needs to extend Hart (I don't think they will). But he failed to impress and now our 1B will be filled with Alex Gonzalez. I was ok with Gonzalez as a SS, but I'm not ok with him as our 1B, and so Hart needs to get back quick. I predict that Gonzalez will not disappoint my expectation of disappointment when it comes to his bat at 1B.

Help me Khris Davis, your my only hope. Davis had a great spring, leading the Brewer's bats with his thump. His only real problem is this: he plays LF (where Braun plays). LF and nothing else. And so he has no real place on this team. So Milwaukee will try to make him a valuable bench off the bat. Originally I saw Gamel for this role (Gamel was more versatile though), not too mention occasional PH has not been Gamel's strong suit. But Milwaukee has lacked a good bench bat. Jim Edmonds may have been our last good bench bat (to start the season, Jerry Hairston Jr. was an excellent midseason pick-up in 2011). Well Davis is here and that's all he can be at the moment. So he needs to step up for a relatively unimpressive bench that also features former starting shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, rookie outfielder Logan Shafer, and back-up catcher Martin Maldonado, who had a strong showing last year but will only PH sparingly. Davis getting a spot means he is gonna get ABs (you don't bring up a top prospect and not use him, and this is the best way he can be used) off the bench. If Braun does get suspended he will have to sub for the team's star. Also of note is that this year with the Astros going to the AL, interleague play will no longer be something everyone does in the middle of the season, it will happen year round. This system puts the NL at even more of a disadvantage than they already largely are in interleague play, since teams with weaker benches might call up a hitter whose position is currently blocked just for interleague play to give that player a showing and add another bat into the DH mix (Brewers did this with Fielder when Overbay was still the 1B), but now with interleague all year you cannot call up a prospect for a two week showing. Thus Davis will likely be the first pick for DH duty, which will be quite essential for such play all year. As the fallback on a suspended Braun, the main PH bat on an otherwise weak bench, and the obvious DH for season long interleague play, the Crew is actually really relying on rookie Davis to make the jump and adjustment successfully. My guess is it will not be that great a year for him. He is making a big jump, and not playing consistently, and that is asking a lot. Expect some power but low average and on-base percentage and a lot of strikeouts. I would be surprised to see him stay on the team all year because of inconsistency and necessary roster moves for when guys like Hart and Rogers return from the DL.

Will the final innings be scary or secure? This is indeed a major question for Milwaukee. Really last year's struggle falls on no one more than the bullpen that had a league worst ERA. Whereas in their record 96 win 2011 season, the bullpen was unbelievable. K-Rod/Axford became an enviable 8th/9th inning tandem. But last year was the opposite. Axford blew up as a closer, lost the role for a while until it was clear the rest of the bullpen was so bad there was no one to take the role over. He needs to come back big. And he is really the only man returning (not counting Jim Henderson who was called up midseason). Talk about a makeover. The team traded for righthander Badenhop, and signed a pair of lefties in Gonzalez and Gorzelanny. In addition to Axford, Henderson, Badenhop, Gonzalez, and Gorzelanny the other three spots (you heard that right, the team is beginning the season with a 13 man pitching staff) go to Lefty Chris Narveson, who is returning from injury was bumped from the rotation to the pen when the Brewers added Lohse (and was a good team player in his attitude about the decision to get bumped), Brandon Kintzler who has had brief opportunities with the team gets a spot, and the final spot was won out by Alfredo Figaro. 3 lefties is going to be nice when facing teams like Cincinnati but may be a disaster against teams like St. Louis. Milwaukee has rarely carried more than one lefty in the pen in the last ten years (in some years going most of the year with no lefty specialist) so it will be interesting to see how things work out. But those lefties may be the key to this team's success. Gonzo and Gorzo (if I may call them that) both had strong years in Washington last year, and hopefully can replicate. Badenhop is basically Kameron Loe 2.0. I think Axford may recover. Like many I am terrified of the similarity to Derek Turnbow, but Axford is a better pitcher and his delivery seems easier to fix mechanical problems to than Turnbow's. I think he will come back strong. My bigger concern is the 7th/8th innings and how stable that will be, because while I can see several guys maybe handling those roles, none of them have me convinced that inning is safe. Bullpens are the easiest thing to fix and hardest to predict. They should be better this year if only because they can't get much worse, but with some inexperienced arms in the rotation, I expect a high work load and late season struggles for this pen, the time of the season when you want to see those struggles least.

Who regresses and who progresses? The Brewers have a series of emerging starters who had strong showings last season for Milwaukee. Fiers was lights out for some time then fell apart at season's end. Top prospect Peralta got himself under control in the second half and made the most of a late season call up. Former first rounder Mark Rogers showed once again he is an arm worth waiting for. And waiver wire pick-up Marco Estrada quietly had a great season striking out more than a batter an inning, only walking 1.9 batters per 9 innings which led to a K/BB ratio of nearly 5 and a WHIP of 1.14. Those numbers are good enough to suggest he could do even better than his strong 3.64 ERA. The real question is how will these same arms look this year? Estrada had great peripherals and uses an excellent change. I think with a full season as starter he will put up a solid ERA like last year but some of his other peripherals will regress slightly. Nonetheless, coming even close to that production for a full season is a step forward. Fiers I expect will regress. He relies heavily on deception and his offspeed stuff, and while some think his arm just wore out by season end, I'm more concerned that teams were starting to figure him out. But if he can give a strong half season that may be all they ask from him, given Rogers and Narveson can also start. With a half season he might be able to maintain those numbers, with a full season I expect some more regression. Rogers is starting on the DL, and had a poor spring (not too mention lower velocity). Hopefully those spring woes were tied to arm fatigue and the DL stint will take care of that. I think his season really depends on his health. His control can be concerning too, but from the start it has been his health that has held him back, and likely will hold him back to only some late season starting after a year in the pen. Peralta is the one I would count on for the biggest season, perhaps even in the Rookie of the Year race. He throws hard with good sink and I think he is here to stay. 160 IP, 130 k's, 11 wins, and an era in the mid to upper threes seems within reach for him. Some of the pressure is off these guys with the addition of Lohse, but since Milwaukee started winning again it has always shown pitching is the one weak spot that determines how far this team can go. So they do need at least two of these guys to progress.

One team can make a difference. The Astros have left the National League, and this will have an impact on the season for NL Central teams, particularly because when you get to play such a poor team so many times it gives you a few extra wins. The Astros leaving could mean some good news for the Brewers and some bad news. The good news is that the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals may miss Houston more. According to B-R, the Reds went 10-5 against Houston last season, the Pirates went 12-5, and the Cardinals went 11-4. The Brewers on the other hand went 9-8. For those interested the Cubs were 8-7 against them. I heard somewhere (cannot remember where) that the loss of the Astros could mean each NL Central team will have about 3 fewer wins this year than they would were the Astros in the division. But as you can see, the impact in the standings may be much worse for some of the other teams expected to compete in the division. Because the loss of the Astros may not be as big on Milwaukee as these teams, having a 100 loss team leave the division may actually help them in that it will hurt them less, allowing them to make up some lost ground. However, it will likely cost the Brewers at least a win or two as well, and while this loss may help them pull closer to their division rivals it may draw them further from the wild card race, making winning the division absolutely essential. My prediction is that the standings will be a bit closer in the NLC than years past because the top teams won't be beating up on the boys from the cellar. That said, I do think one should expect it to be the division or nothing if one wishes to make the playoffs.

Will the Fire Sale in Chicago Continue? The Cubs while not making themselves contenders, did make themselves a lot better by adding enough solid bounceback candidates and pitching improvements that this team will not be as bad as last year. That said, many of these players are suspiciously signed short term and clearly are not in Chicago's long term plan. This leads me to suspect that Theo is preparing for a busy trade deadline that could see Chicago unloading a bunch of players for prospects. This means playing the Cubs in the first half will likely be more difficult than in the second half. The Brewers play 3 series against Chicago before the trade deadline and two afterwards. However the third series prior to the deadline is in the final days leading up to the deadline. So the question is will most of the deals go to the wire, or will Chicago sell sooner and make that series easier on them as well? For the Cardinals it is about even before and after the deadline. The Reds will play the Cubs more in the first part of the season. This again may then help Milwaukee gain ground against the division favorites.

Who knows how well Gomez does? Gomez doesn't even know. In fact rash hard play without really thinking has plagued Gomez's game for some time. Failing to hit a cut-off man, showing no patience at the plate, and getting power hungry are just some examples of how his game of high energy but no thinking has really held him back. Last year though he made tremendous strides. His average was at least respectable, and he approached 20HR/30SB status, falling just a few homers short. Milwaukee decided to give him a contract extension which could prove to be a slight over pay (basically paying for speed and defense only) or a tremendous savings if Gomez continues to mature. I honestly am not sure what to expect from Gomez. The only thing I would say is do not count on him having some OBP in the .330s or higher. I think if his power continues to show he'll get more walks because he'll clearly be pitched around. But he is such a hungry player he is gonna chase a ton still. I think it would be realistic to expect him to produce similar to last year except with more SBs. Numbers like OBP are really probably only going to go as far as his batting average will carry him, which means he will need a really good BABIP for how much he strikes out to have an OBP much higher than it has been the last few seasons.

Final Predictions

Milwaukee is better since I last predicted their fate. It seems less likely that Braun will be suspended and Lohse definitely improves the rotation. While the bullpen does not breath assurance it seems destined to be better than last year. But I think between the significant loss of Hart early, and really the poor depth this team has (except maybe in starting pitching, but even then there is no real depth in experienced starting pitching) will doom this team. Alex Gonzalez starting at 1B and the team last minute signing Yuni B because he was a superior option for their bench indicates how bad the depth is for this team. Along with these intangibles is needing guys like Aoki and Ramirez to continue performing, Weeks to bounce back, Lohse to not suffer "I'm not in St. Louis anymore Toto" syndrome, and just a lot of other ifs that are not as reliable for this team as it is for other teams in this division. Milwaukee has the pieces to compete, maybe even win the division if someone steps up big time and some other teams suffer disappointments, but I think really this is a middle of the pack kind of team, hovering around .500 again this year. Maybe a bit better than last.

Predicted Record: 84-78
Predicted Place: 3rd Place in NL Central

HR Leader: Ryan Braun
RBI Leader: Ryan Braun
SB Leader: Carlos Gomez
Big Performer: Norichika Aoki
Big Letdown: Martin Maldonado
Wins Leader: Yovani Gallardo
K's Leader: Yovani Gallardo
IP Leader: Kyle Lohse
Saves Leader: John Axford
Rookie to Watch: Wily Peralta
First Player to be cut/sent down: Alfredo Figaro
Most Likely to be Boo'ed: Kyle Lohse (at home) Ryan Braun (on the road)
2013 All Star: Ryan Braun, Yavani Gallardo
Worst Managing Moment of 2013: Alex Gonzalez starting at 1B is surpassed in disappointment when he is pulled for Yuniesky Betancourt to pinch hit.
Best Managing Moment of 2013: Fiers temporarily shut down mid-season, with Narveson and Rogers getting a crack at the rotation.
Best GM move of the offseason: Gonzo/Gorzo additions to the bullpen
Worst GM move of offseason: Last minute signing of fan nemesis Yuni Betancourt.
Best GM move during season: waiver wire pick up to boost bench.
Worst GM move during season: To open a roster spot due to Cory Hart's activation from the DL the team sends Khris Davis down instead of a pitcher thus giving Milwaukee a four man bench of Maldonado, Gonzalez, Betancourt, and Shafer.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

In defense of Palm Sunday

With Liturgical Renewal and the simple fact that Holy Week is not what it used to be, Palm Sunday is a fast fading tradition in the church today. It is quickly being supplanted with what we refer to as "Passion Sunday" which as one can imagine changes the focus of the service from Christ's entry into Jerusalem to Christ's Passion (suffering and death). The standard practice is quickly becoming to begin with a Palm Sunday gospel reading, process into the church waving palms to "All Glory, Laud, and Honor" and then essentially transitioning to the Passion narrative.

One thought is this is the way it should be. Passion Sunday properly puts Palm Sunday in its place, as a set up for what happens in Jerusalem. This kind of order puts the cries of "Hosanna" in contrast to the cries of "Crucify Him!" There is something to be said for the power of that, and the way it does resist a triumphalism about the entry into Jerusalem. This system also allows the lectionary to give you "two passions", namely a passion according to whatever synoptic Gospel you are on for that year (this year it is Luke) and then the reading of John's Passion on Good Friday. Of note here is that John takes a particularly different approach to the passion story than Matthew, Mark, or Luke.

Along with theological and liturgical reasoning for the transition, comes simply the practical argument which is what I said before, "Holy Week is not what it used to be." And there is certainly truth to this. I'm too young to have seen this, but it was still not all that long ago when businesses would close down from 12-3 on Good Friday, so one could go to church. Contrast this with a memory of mine from high school when at our Good Friday early service, the choir outnumbered the rest of the congregation! And this is not some large choir, we're only talking about 8-10 people outnumbering the rest of the congregation. Maundy Thursday can be even worse. Some churches and traditions do not even do services on it, electing to bunch it in with Friday. And if you are only going to pick one service during Holy Week, Maundy Thursday ain't gonna be it, not unless your church has marked it with something special that has a particular attraction to it (first communion, seder meals, foot washing - although the latter might even scare a few off). With attendance to midweek worship services dwindling, with Holy Week not being what it used to be to so many church goers, the practical cry for a Passion Sunday is perhaps the most relevant. Because of whatever liturgical, theological, and practical perks there are to putting Palm and Passion Sunday together, they do not compare to the liturgical, theological, and therefore practical issue of going from Palm Sunday to Easter Sunday with nothing in between. The lackluster attendance for Maundy Thursday and Good Friday means a great number, in fact perhaps a majority of members are missing the Passion story from their worship! It really undoes much of the work of the liturgical calendar and lectionary (particularly from Christmas to Easter) and if one is afraid of triumphalism and churches avoiding anything close to theology of the cross, going from Hosanna to Alleluia with no Crucify Him is a good way to do it. And so perhaps the best argument truly is the practical one, that is, Passion Sunday makes sure we aren't skipping the passion in the life of our church.

But now we must stop so that I may object. I hold that there is certainly great concern here, but I hold that the hijacking of Palm Sunday is not the answer. Quite frankly, the move to turn Palm Sunday into Passion Sunday fails to truly recognize that Palm Sunday is in itself a key and essential moment in the Jesus narrative. It is one of only a handful of events recorded in all four gospels, which should be the first hint that from the beginning, this stood out in Christ's ministry. It's connection to the Old Testament and Messianic fulfillment also are of particular note in the gospels. If we take Luke's Gospel as a mere example, Luke notes particularly throughout the Gospel that Christ is moving towards Jerusalem, and when we get to the Palm Sunday text he gives us nearly a play by play. The story slows downs significantly for this event, doesn't anyone think we should pay attention to that theologically and liturgically? Of all of the Gospel readings we do through the year, in what way does the Palm Sunday Gospel, which the authors of the Gospel intentionally slow down to speak about, why is that Gospel reading not worthy or worth its own Sunday? The liturgy and lectionary tend towards far more obscure and Passionless moments in the Gospel yet see some big issue in the dramatic unfolding of the story in letting Palm Sunday be Palm Sunday, and in doing so, it gets significantly undercut.

Furthermore, if we were to speak "practically", it is impractical to give us a "processional Gospel" along with a two-chapter Passion story (not counting the Old Testament, Psalm, and Epistle Reading) and expect there to be time for a good sermon on either. What I usually hear is no sermon, or a brief sermon, or a few words trying to tie the Palm story to the Passion story. If you are worried about triumphalism, or some Palm Sunday experience that is without serious reflection on the entry in relation to the cross, then don't bloat the readings to the point that one has no time to really preach on it. Dare I say, that if all these other obscure moments in the gospel are either ok to be read on their own, or we truly trust that our preaching will use that to proclaim none other than Christ and him crucified then why don't we have the same trust over Palm Sunday preaching? Why are we tending towards scriptural overkill (which dare I say may take away from reading any of it) in place of solid preaching. The other significant issue is this much content in readings can also really take away the details. Not only is the pastor on time constraints, but pastor has such a vast narrative to cover that reaching into the rich details of texts (especially ones that lie uniquely in this Gospel or that Gospel) also often disappears.

Let me also get picky as to how this is bad for Holy Week itself. The first argument is that it enables missing Maundy Thursday and Good Friday. I tend to disagree here. That is, attending those services are still quite different from Passion Sunday. Perhaps a case can be made that those who never attend midweek services do not realize this, so the fact that Good Friday tenebrae services or seven last words or adoration of the cross, or whatever else Good Friday tradition you can think of, maybe those folks don't realize how different that is from Passion Sunday, so Passion Sunday will do for them. But that stands true in a Palm or Passion Sunday world. Simply put, if you don't go to church in a Palm Sunday tradition, you're not going to go in a Passion Sunday tradition. I'm not sure enabling is the proper term. Accommodating? Yes, perhaps. But one could call accommodating the same as preaching. That is, in the name of its mission the church has historically tried to find ways to be flexible, that is, to get the message to the people. Passion Sunday can make that argument, it gets the passion to the people who don't get there midweek, even though the midweek services still have their own integrity and uniqueness. However, our current lectionary is rather flawed in the way it uses Passion Sunday. Part of this is a consequence of the pure stupidity of being a three year instead of four year lectionary. At this critical juncture in the story (same with Easter season), it really jumbles up the journey through a single Gospel. Yes there are already times in the lectionary that we make an occasional foray into John, but the general mode of the Revised Common Lectionary has been to really work through a single gospel at a time, allowing one to work from its unique witness, and hear the story (somewhat) as that author intended, let God speak from a single Gospel rather than past movements at Gospel harmonization, which cared more about making it seem like an interchangable story than God's Word intending on and utilizing different emphases and narratives for a reason. In Holy Week however, this principle falls to the wayside. You get the entire Luke Passion put on Passion Sunday to assure you that you won't preach on the unique details of Luke's Passion (or the unique details of Luke's entry into Jerusalem). When the rest of the year you essentially labor through one Gospel and focus on that, we crash course that entire account of the Passion (even though it is the main focus and longest account of the Gospels) in a single day and we spend Maundy Thursday and Good Friday in John's Gospel, even though John records no Last Supper (so we turn to Corinthians) and John's understanding of the Passion is quite different from the Synoptics. This is what Passion Sunday and the lectionary using it do to Holy Week, it takes us away from really honoring the narrative journey we have been going through and defaults back to harmonization mode that wants to place the last supper into John.

If you see no problem in this system, remember again how big details can be. Only Matthew's Gospel utilizes those key words in the Words of Institution "for the forgiveness of sins", but how likely will that get preached on, seriously preached on, when it is only ever read as part of the massive Passion Sunday reading and not a part of Maundy Thursday when we truly pause and focus on the Last Supper and institution of the Lord's Supper. And dare I say we do our midweek worshipers a disservice by them only getting John then regularly for those midweek services, it actually limits what Holy Week can be. Additionally, it also means that while we give our non-midweek worshipers a crash course on the Passion with Passion Sunday, it means they will not hear John's account of the Passion, which is different. Thus Passion Sunday not only affects how our church celebrates, understands, and preaches Palm Sunday, but it affects how it celebrates Holy Week.

One of these problems goes to a bigger problem of having a three rather than four year lectionary, and thus is not entirely the fault of Passion Sunday, however the utilization of Passion Sunday fuels this problem. The greater one is the problem with our ability to truly understand the Passion as more than something to breeze through and pack into a single event, including not just the integrity of those various parts: supper, garden, trial, crucifixion. But also the entry into Jerusalem itself. By being seen as part of Holy Week, even though the act is often separated by other "in Jerusalem" content between the entry and passover and crucifixion accounts (such as cleansing the temple in the synoptic gospels), it is nonetheless clear that the entry is itself seen as a part of this narrative. It is seen as crucial in the gospels themselves. It deserves as much as Maundy Thursday and Good Friday, and Transfiguration, and Baptism of Jesus, and Christmas, and Pentecost, and feeding of the 5000, and parable of sower, it deserves as much as all of these its own day and its own sermon, and the liturgical aim and focus being on this event, because like all of these, it is part of the story of Christ's passion. The gospels are about the cross and telling that story. And we ought to see the importance of each day tending towards that. I think we can clearly and without having to read the entire passion in one sitting still look at the entry into Jerusalem as more than just some triumphant glory parade, we are able to do that effectively with other messianic texts.

Now what shall we do? If I were a part of conversations of the next liturgical renewal, I would make Palm Sunday about Palm Sunday. I would also make a four year lectionary to start, so we can get a year to each Gospel's unique telling of the Passion. I would see Palm Sunday as part of the Palm Sunday - Maundy Thursday - Good Friday - Easter liturgical "drama" if you will. Each one letting us focus and really work through the story as it unfolds and is given. Holy Week still has its merit. It gives us a real time line, it immerses us, breaks up the story. But part of that merit only happens if one day is Hosanna and the next is you will betray me and the next is crucify him and then it is he is risen. Passion Sunday interrupts and downplays that experience and that intentional day by day transition. It also kind of treats the listeners like idiots, or newcomers to the story. As if those who jump from Hosanna one Sunday to Alleluia the next have no real idea what happened in between. That is, it acts like this is the only way we talk about his death or experience his death. And yet at the same time take away from that experience by interrupting the Holy Week movement.

The other real limitation here, which the liturgical calendar somewhat does, is it binds us so strictly to the Holy Week movement that we act like the story of the passion can occur nowhere else within the life of the church. The passion is essential to our life, it is the central story of the Gospels, and maybe with a four year lectionary (removing John from its places here and there where we insert it into another Gospel's year) one could have plenty of other opportunities to preach it and read its parts in church. Maybe instead of Lent being so oriented towards the journey to Jerusalem and the cross, being so Holy Week heavy, if Holy Week is falling out of regular practice for many instead of trying to jam the Passion into one Sunday to accommodate that absence of Holy Week attendees more of Lent should be about really focusing on the Passion itself. Imagine for example if that season was largely dedicated to the Passion only, reading it little bit by little bit, really focusing on it and dwelling in it. That would do more justice and orient the church more to the Passion and then the Easter joy than any Palm to Passion Sunday extravaganza would ever do. If the message of Lent is the centrality of Holy Week, perhaps we should show that by spending more of our Sunday actually in Holy Week rather than "preparing" for it. Or if that doesn't float your boat, you like the preparation and drawing out towards the great Holy Week Drama, well then again you shouldn't like Passion Sunday because it kinda really lets down on that drama. It doesn't give it the real time Lent suggests it deserves. But again we should come to liturgy and liturgical calendars and lectionaries being to help our preaching of the cross, not hinder it. Then have a passion Sunday some other time. Maybe instead of random sermon series in the summer (when so many churches abandon the lectionary anyways) spending a summer going through the passion. Other readings repeat themselves at different times in the year, repeating the passion, or parts of it, elsewhere is certainly appropriate. This already happens somewhat with Christ the King Sunday at the end of the liturgical year. One year Christ is on the cross, another he is on trial. It should show us how the Passion narrative need not be locked into Holy Week.

This should show us that the real problem here is some need to box the Passion into Holy Week, and then the struggle to do that when half our members are not attending Holy Week services during the week. But the solution damages what is actually done and the purposes/journey of Holy Week, and it encourages this concept that the Passion story somehow only belongs this week. But it doesn't, because it is something we as the baptized are called to be drawn into daily. By washing and renewal, by dying to sin and rising to new life. If the cross and resurrection is the center of our story and so much of our worship, faith, and theology hinges on it, then getting so caught up in the Lent to Holy Week drama that we limit the passion to Holy Week ignores or in some way acts against our confession of faith. I think Holy Week is good. I think the step by step yet still in one week immersing in that narrative is powerful, and the sense of time is important. But that must not be the end of the cross for us as a church, and thus it need not be the end of it for our reading and preaching on Sundays. I simply think it is better to give Holy Week, as well as Sunday readings of the Passion more credit than what we do. I don't think accommodation for proclamation needs to be done in a way that takes away from that. I think it is good to let Palm Sunday be about Hosanna. I find it funny that for how much our lectionary can jump between gospels, readings, and pericopes, that we have such a get up on going from Palm Sunday to Easter Sunday, as if that is the most outrageous jump liturgically. As if preaching that day will be cross-less. I find it interesting that we spend an entire season about approaching the passion and then think rushing through it is an acceptable accommodation and alternative when people aren't coming on Maundy Thursday - Good Friday.

In my new parish, I asked the worship and music committee "do we do Palm or Passion Sunday here", there was a bit of confusion as to what I meant. So I explained, and the overwhelming response was "We do Palm". Now I'm not sure if they have never done Passion, I'm guessing they have, if for no other reason simply because the worship planning resource they use does a Palm to Passion transition. Consider this, that the Palm part stood out. That they wanted this Sunday to be about Palm Sunday. That if the Passion was getting read there on that Sunday, it did not have the same hold or impact, or meaning as simply the beginning "processional Gospel" and waving the branches in the air as we sing "All Glory, Laud, and Honor". The first seven minutes of the service had more hold than the next 50 in terms of how they defined and understood this Sunday. People want to live into Palm Sunday, and I don't think it has to do with trying to escape the cross. I think it has to do with the power of Holy Week when done in parts. They remember them more. They get to liturgically live them. They get to hold the Palm Branch and wave it, and that sticks out more than two chapters of the Gospel of Luke and a three to five minute sermon.

Ironically, this also speaks of the value of our midweek worship, which people are seeing as less and less important. Maybe part of resurrecting that is making it the way you get the cross in holy week, and letting people experience each service as its part of the drama. If Palm Sunday has that great, different, and memorable feel to it, then Maundy Thursday and Good Friday have that too more than Passion Sunday. Then Easter has that too, the special Easter cries, the resurrecting the word "Alleluia" the Lillies and dresses, the white paraments. We live into these days in a special way, and that integrity still matters.

Passion Sunday also presents us with a real issue to consider as a church: namely, sporadic attendance. If we are so concerned about missing midweek worship, perhaps we should consider that regular attendance in general is getting less common. If we are so outraged at our regulars/semi-regulars going from Hosanna to Alleluia how about all those folks who go from "Gloria" (Christmas) to "Alleluia" (Easter), or those who go from Christmas Eve to Second Sunday after Epiphany, or miss the summer, or are harvesting in the fall. Is it illusion or is it a liturgical dramatization that is so fragile that we panic when part of the story is missed? Granted it is a central part of the story, but again then we should ask ourselves why we read it only one week a year anyways. And if we are so concerned about folks missing the story, then we ought to think about reading the whole Passion on Easter morning. Then we can connect crucify him to he is risen.
...oh wait, but that would take away from Easter. My point exactly.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Blessings of a Pope

Generally speaking, no non-Catholic has anything positive to say about the papacy. This is especially true in our modern times when we are weary of having a hierarchy with one man on top. We are all about "democracy" as if that equals godliness (take for example how in the Minnesota senate the words 'the voice of the people is the voice of God' are upon the wall in Latin). So it may be odd for a Lutheran to see value in it.

Theologically speaking it has lots of problems. No doubt it is true that a bad pope can really make the whole idea of a pope seem like a bad idea. And I know many people, Catholic and otherwise, who were quite critical of the last pope, perhaps increasing the negative view of the pope.

But the current deliberation reminds me of the immense blessing that the Catholic church has in the papal system. The pope in many ways defines the direction of the church, the pope can promote or quench a theology like no one else in the Christian church. That is not to say this is always a good thing, see Pope Leo X. Nor does it mean that what happens on the top always equals what is going on in all the congregations and with all the theologians. But it does make it a lot easier to rein in the church or to push it where it has never been.

Proponents of liberation theology which has mostly been suppressed in the same church where it began could witness it become a central staple in the church were a pope to arise who believes in it. Following John XXIII who initiated Vatican II, the church stayed the direction with John Paul II. So we can see how the church can stay the course on a theological direction. The last pope shows how the church can transform (this time conservatively) and change its direction. Those critical of the pope should realize how the papacy allows that critique to perhaps end with each pope. The Catholic church, unlike any other body has a much better system of checking itself, reforming itself, and changing itself as much as it has the ability to stay the course they are on. No doubt politics and what not are in play in electing popes as in any human system, but the cardinals now can totally evaluate their church and the ministry of the Catholic church. They can try to discern what the church needs now. And they can act. They can think of what kind of leader their church needs, similar to congregational call committees considering what they are looking for in their next pastor.

Some will say the cardinals will never go this or that route, but the difference just between the last two popes should show how much they can change direction, and a willingness to try new things or dare go back to old things. In the protestant church, we are typically speaking plagued with schism over against reform (in the sense of reforming old wrongs and new wrongs). To where liberal bodies can only reform with new liberal ideas never returning to previous ones or discerning a recent direction as unwise, and conservative bodies too often are only reforming by purging itself of the new, digging in deeper to certain ways, spending countless energy quelling current trends in theology. Any attempt to reform in the "wrong direction" usually leads to schism. Both these types of reforms have merits, but too often the issues of constant reform in only one direction raises issues (and therefore: schism). The Catholic church is blessed with a system that can allow conservative and liberal reform.

If you are upset with the Catholic church, or weary of bad popes, you should be praying all the more for those cardinals, to pick a wise pope, to reform the church again. Because they are in the position we protestants should appreciate and see as a blessing. The Catholic church can continue in conservative reform, go in a more liberal one, perhaps ecumenically as JP II was or in some other direction, but they can do it. And whoever they pick can steer a ship like no one in our churches can. So we should be very interested in who they pick, and pray hard for their discernment, and for the ministry ahead for the Catholic church. All our "bible only" (or sola scripura for you churches of the Reformation) churches ought then pray for a pope who will take the bible so seriously it will drive new reforms. Pray for someone with good interpretation of scripture. Pray for Christ to lead this church through his word, and that will happen by the pope they pick, the way the Spirit captivates this pope to the word. And so this is a matter of deep prayer for them.

Whatever we say about the papacy, I seriously wonder if the word could work faster through any church system, than through one where God only has to get his word to one heart to see it preached and working on the lives of so many. Yeah I disagree with papal theology, but I see how God could captivate that church. Philip Melanchthon, beside his signature to Luther's Smalcald Articles was willing to give a grounds in which he would accept the papacy. He signed:
I, Philip Melanchthon, also regard the above articles as right and Christian. But regarding the Pope I hold that, if he would allow the Gospel, his superiority over the bishops which he has otherwise, is conceded to him by human right also by us, for the sake of peace and general unity of those Christians who are also under him, and may be under him hereafter.
Now Melanchthon is sort of difficult to appreciate at times among Lutherans, but what he saw was that would the Pope allow the gospel, the full preaching of the gospel, and only claim human authority for his position, it would be a good thing to have a pope. Perhaps he saw the value in a single voice guiding the church. With all the theological issues is the awesome way an evangelical pope could lead the church. So the pope is worth praying for, the system can be a blessing to allow them to test the spirit in a way few other churches are good at or able. May God bless the Catholic church in their discernment. I'm a little jealous.

Friday, March 1, 2013

2013 MLB Predictions

Been a while since I posted folks. Since my last post I've moved back to Wisconsin and started a new call at two churches. So things are a bit busy. But I thought today I would just throw out my early predictions for this year in baseball. The problem with predictions are they are always wrong because there is always a team that surprises and always a team that flops. But predicting is still lots of fun, especially when you try to anticipate who will flop and who will surprise. So, without further ado, here is my 2013 MLB predictions:

National League:
NL WEST
1. SF Giants
2. LA Dodgers
3. SD Padres
4. ARZ Diamondbacks
5. COL Rockies

This feels like a two tiered division where it will be the Giants and Dodgers duking it out for first while the other three are a ways behind. While the Dodgers have all of the sudden begun to outspend the Yankees, that doesn't convince me of anything. Not only did great spending only yield for the Yankees 1 World Series title in the last decade, but as we saw with the 2011-2012 Red Sox, big names to big contracts does not equal big success. And half the big names to big contracts the Dodgers took on came straight from that Red Sox team. If any team in the National League is poised to disappoint, it is probably the Dodgers. The Giants on the other hand are defending World Series champs (their second such title in a few years) and they did it with an uncharacteristic season from Tim Lincecum. They also have the reigning NL MVP (no matter what I may think of the BWAA vote) who at his age could easily be better in 2013. Although the biggest surprise here might be picking the Padres for third. If you want to anticipate surprises in 2013, I think this is a good one to anticipate. This team is better than we give it credit for, particularly if Headley builds off of his monster second half in 2012 and the likes of Grandal and Cabrera can continue to produce while avoiding PED suspensions. The biggest factor for this team could be 1B Alonso. He was a key piece in the Latos trade, and then convinced this team to trade another young slugger (Rizzo) to Chicago. The Diamondbacks could easily surprise too, but to me they did not really get better this year. They picked up an aging closer/set-up man from Florida, sent away two-thirds of their outfield, over payed for Cody Ross when they didn't need him in their outfield, traded away a guy who finished top 5 in MVP two years ago (Upton), and dealt one of their young pitchers away for a shortstop we know little about and who may not be MLB ready. The have a good enough team to surprise with their pitching (Cahill, Hudson, Kennedy) and some of their key hitters (Kubel, Goldschmidt, Hill, Prado), but I'm not anticipating it. Their GM is one of the hardest to grade in baseball, half the time looking the dumbest and half perhaps the most brilliant. Not much needs to be said for Colorado. They have two hitting stars in Tulo and Car-Go assuming they can stay healthy. But given the cast and especially pitching around them they seem more likely to be traded than lead this team to a World Series.

NL CENTRAL
1. CIN Reds
2. STL Cardinals
3. PIT Pirates
4. CHI Cubs
5. MIL Brewers

In this NL Central, anything could go differently. If the Pirates can finish out a season strong instead of playing a great 80-120 games and petering out they could perhaps win this division. We know they have the talent. They have an MVP caliber star to go with a solid cast of players, some better pitching than years past, and most importantly some great pitching prospects on the verge of being difference makers. The Cardinals I hate to admit as a Brewer's fan just never seem to go away. They've basically been good for the last decade. Even last year when they lost their highly successful jerk of a manager and the best hitter to ever put on a red bird jersey they still managed to be good. And they have a strong system. But I think the Reds might do it this year for the Central. They have good (although not as good as some think) starting pitching, a strong bullpen (not too mention Chapman who will be a difference maker as a closer or starter), they got elite bats in Votto and Bruce to go with strong ones in Phillips and Choo, and Ryan Ludwick thrives in this stadium. Barring a major injury, particularly to Votto this team should be the one to beat. But any setbacks and the Cardinals could step up. In fact I first pegged the Cardinals to win because of how strong this team is, but with Carpenter down, me not being convinced Wainright is the ace he once was, Lohse walking, and guys like Beltran and Furcal getting older and annually injured I expect some regression. They are still a strong team, but I don't expect Beltran to hit like he did in 2012, and that alone mixed with some pitching questions (although this team better than any in baseball seems to solve pitching questions) makes me think they will be in second place, perhaps a wild card winner this year. It was hard to pick the Brewers last, but with the steroid investigation in Miami where Braun is linked he might be suspended, but even if he isn't they are without Hart for the start of the season, Gamel is gone another year, and Aramis Ramirez ain't getting younger. Add to it the new look bullpen (which should be better than last year but is hard to predict) and the decision to give the rotation spots to some of Milwaukee's many young pitchers I expect it might be a rough year. Last year was sort of a real middle ground season, where you could say had the bullpen not blown up they would have been in the post-season which is true, but also short of their great late season surge they would have been a below average team and had a losing record, also true. But really the deciding factor is that the division has gotten tougher. The Astros are no longer around and that impact will be big on all the NL Central teams numbers this year. But also the other teams all seem better (except for maybe the Cardinals, but they are still in much better shape as a franchise than Milwaukee). The Cubs may actually in my book win most improved club this year, which is why I think they won't finish last. Epstein has quietly had a great offseason, and this team is on the rise. They are not winners yet, but will be moving in the right direction.

NL EAST
1. WAS Nationals
2. ATL Braves
3. PHI Phillies
4. NY Mets
5. MIA Marlins

Funny part is the hardest part of predicting this division is who would finish last between New York and Miami. Ultimately Miami has more potential to be awful it seemed. The Mets on the other hand lost their Cy Young winner, that's a lot of wins to make up. But they have a few more proven players and a healthy Johan Santana could always turn in a good year. Miami requires a lot of prospects to succeed. Now those who remember when they rebuilt in the past they had immediate success from names such as Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, but I am not counting on it. That and the Mets also added some fine prospects from Toronto's system as well. The Phillies could be better than the Braves. It is hard to tell which will have a tougher impact: the loss of Braves' star Chipper Jones or Phillies' stars another year older. Who will be a less productive 2B in 2013: Uggla or Utley? The difference between these teams I think is the Braves did a bit better retooling this winter, adding the Upton brothers to the outfield. But no matter how much better or how worse these teams end up, the Nationals are the team to beat. They have a strong team, a good core, and some depth. Hard to imagine this team being much worse in 2012.

NL MVP: Joey Votto
Well, Braun won't win anytime soon and Votto can put up better numbers than Posey, especially considering their ballparks (the argument used that Posey's ballpark handicapped his numbers against Braun would not likely be used for Votto since BWAA and general public have no issues with him). Votto is the star of his team, and if the Reds win the division as I claimed it will almost certainly include a great year from him. If Votto does not win I imagine either McCutchen held on for a whole year or Headley really broke out. McCutchen might even be a safer pick in that he plays a tougher position excellently and steals bases, but Votto has won before. I'm giving it to him.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
This guy is the best pitcher in perhaps baseball right now. He's a winner and his team is better, which means he should be all the more successful this year. The guy is also wicked young. My sleeper is Lincecum who in a contract year is likely poised for a major comeback season. He's won two Cy Youngs before, I would not rule out a third. The third best option I would say might be a Braves pitcher. I keep it generic because they have several arms (Medlan and Beachy) that need to be healthy and successful over a whole season but in their limited time were pretty amazing pitchers.
NL Rolaids Relief Pitcher of the Year: Ardolis Chapman
So long as Cincinnati keeps Chapman as a closer he will dominate. His stuff is filthy and his numbers last year were absurd.
NL Rookie of the Year: Wily Peralta
It seems odd to pick someone not even on most top 100 prospect lists, but because the Brewers are committing to going with their young starters, it means their young starters have the best shot at a full season of work. Peralta has been a top Brewers prospect and had a great showing last year up in the majors. The one catch is that Rogers being out of options and Fiers after his strong start last year likely will be on the roster, if one of them (or Narveson) is not sent to the pen, Peralta may begin in the minors. But he is really the best of those young arms, so hopefully he gets his shot, because he could turn in a strong 2013.
NL Champions: Nationals.
This is the best team on paper. Last year they showed they are not just an on paper team. I fully expect them to succeed and make it to the World Series. They are in a good position to get there.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL WEST
1. ANA Angels
2. OAK A's
3. TEX Rangers
4. SEA Mariners
5. HOU Astros

Yes they are still the Anaheim Angels to me. Sometimes I'm real slow to change, although fans of advanced metrics already know this as I have given my lack of support particularly to everyone's favorite statistic (WAR). But anyways, the top of this division will be hard to tell. Three teams were in it last year, and the Mariners have been quietly improving the last couple years and with some added offense and a not so spacious outfield, they figure to improve again. The Angels though missed out on a big pitcher and so added a big hitter, already having Trout and Pujols and their rotation not being bad they seem the best positioned team to me. Deciding between Oakland and Texas though for second in the division is tough. The Rangers have been a playoff team for several straight years, but they got eliminated in the Wild Card game last year, and had perhaps the worst offseason of any team (at least of any contender). They lost their star bat (Hamilton) to the competition, and failed to replace him with an offseason stalemate in Justin Upton trade rumors. They failed also to get Greinke or any top starter for their rotation. And they dealt away Michael Young for a little saving, but put that savings nowhere. Lance Berkman was their big pickup. He may do well as their DH in that stadium, but he probably shouldn't be counted on for a full season anymore with his age and injury history. Perhaps they are waiting for a better free agent market, but it means this will not be as good a year. Oakland, while I think they played a bit above their heads last year, did improve this offseason, so I think they will still remain in contention. This whole division though will benefit by the addition of Houston who will look like a ragtag of players akin to the Major League movies, except hating their owner won't make them better.

AL CENTRAL
1. DET Tigers
2. CLE Indians
3. KC Royals
4. CHI White Sox
5. MIN Twins

It is going to be an interesting year in the Central. Mainly because Cleveland and Kansas City have made significant improvements. The Tigers are still the easy favorites. They added a good team player and solid outfielder in Torii Hunter and retained Anibal Sanchez to keep their rotation strong. They have the reigning MVP along with Prince Fielder to give the team a great middle order threat. And Fielder seems to have monster seasons every other year, so this year ya gotta watch out. Victor Martinez also returns to join the line-up. The only real issue I think will be the back end of the bullpen as there is no experienced closer there. Say what you want about how overhyped the closer role is, the bottom line is teams without a good solid one rarely make the playoffs. But this team is aggressive enough that if their rookie closer does not pan out I'm sure they'll find someone. Cleveland gets credit for making several upgrades this offseason. They turned one year of Choo into an excellent young pitcher, which is important as their rotation is very shaky. They also used patience and shrunken markets to get Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn at a discounted price. This also gives them a slight surplus in outfielders so if they wanted to make a trade they could (or at least they will have depth in case of injuries). As they are in the weakest division in baseball and have made these improvements I think they ought go out and sign Kyle Lohse or trade for Chris Capuano. The team has already forfeit two draft picks, so they will not be losing a top pick for Lohse at this point, and should make the move if they want a real chance at the division or playoffs. The Royals have also finally decided it is time to try to climb the division, beefing up their rotation most notably with pitcher James Shields. The Royals have two years of Shields and need to make the most of it. We'll see how the team shapes up this year, but I would not be surprised by a big signing or extension next offseason, especially if this team gets over the .500 mark. The Sox played over their heads last year and faded late. If they could not beat teams like the Royals last season it will be harder this year. Besides, Rios has to be horrible every other year right? And Konerko and Dunn ain't getting younger. The Twins are rebuilding. They dealt their two center fielders. A strong first half will likely mean the loss of Morneau maybe (though far less likely) even Mauer. They can thank the Astros' arrival for preventing them from being the American League's worst team.

AL EAST
1. NY Yankees
2. TOR Blue Jays
3. TB Rays
4. BOS Red Sox
5. BAL Orioles

What has been the most consistent and predictable division in baseball has all of the sudden become the most difficult to predict. Every team in this division has an argument of being a playoff team. And I imagine one if not both of the Wild Cards will come from here. The decision to put the Yankees first is because while there is real argument for them being a worse team this year, they are so consistently good, only missing the playoffs once since the mid 90's I think Cashman deserves the benefit of the doubt here. That and while they will be less powerful, they may be a more balanced team in 2013. If well managed, and barring major regression/injuries from some of their vets this team can still win the division. The Jays are another all in team that deserves credit for trying to take their team to the next level. Much like the Dodgers, I think with all the buzz is more potential to flop. But when you have hitters like Bautista, Encarnacion (assuming he can do 75% percent of what he did last year), Lawrie, Arencibia, Reyes, and Bonifacio that is a solid team. Add in a rotation including Johnson, Dickey, Romero, Morrow, and Buehrle...that is pretty strong. The only real issue for me is injury concerns which several of those named carry. The Rays are just a well run franchise, and figure to be good still, although losing guys like Upton and Shields makes me wonder if they will be playoff bound this year. Boston I picked fourth because I think this team has to be better than they've been. They are a pretty different team, we will see how it plays out, but I think they will come back solid. Baltimore goes last because they cannot count on a repeat of last year's success. You just should not expect your bullpen to be historically good again. But the team had one of the quieter offseasons and did little to improve. They have the talent, especially if some of those many young pitchers step up to be all the way atop this division, they are more where they are because the division is well balanced, some teams got tougher and they did little to improve when I think they needed to.

AL MVP: Mike Trout
With a full season, even with a sophomore slump Mike Trout will almost certainly have the numbers to win MVP. Since no one is likely winning the triple crown this year and the Angels I have pegged for division champs, it seems inevitable. Not too mention the sympathy votes he will get for not winning this year, since baseball voting is ridiculous like that. But even so, I think he'll deserve it. When Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton take back seats to your stardom it is impressive. But if it were not Trout, I would have to guess either Prince Fielder who like I say is due for another big season or Robinson Cano who is on a walk year.
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
King Felix is one of baseball's best, so much so that he has won Cy Young on peripheral stats over wins - a rare feat. Well now he should get some wins with a better offense around him. So long as the walls in Safeco moving in does not increase his numbers much I think he will pick up his second Cy Young this year. Otherwise Justin Verlander is always a threat, or guys like Weaver and Price are in the running each year it seems.
AL Rolaids Relief Pitcher of the Year: Mariano Rivera
Not only is he consistently good enough to win, but several factors this year may increase his chance of winning: the first is that the team may need his saves more, as the Yankees' offense is different and may mean more closer games. Also, because voters are so sentimental, and this may be his final year. If the all-time saves leader cannot nail down one more award, it probably goes to maybe Santos from the Jays, Johnson of the Orioles, or maybe Ryan Madson makes a strong return with the Angels.
AL Rookie of the Year: Manny Machado
I would pick Profar from TEX but they have 3 middle infielders in Profar, Andrus, and Kinsler and so I'm unsure how regular his playing time will be this year. Machado on the other hand seems the Orioles' best 3B option, at least for while Hardy is still their SS. Their weakness at 3B and really at 2B also makes me think he'll get more starts and therefore sport the better numbers. But if Profar gets the ABs he could easily win it, I would also keep an eye on if Minnesota lets Aaron Hicks take over in their CF vacancy, or if one of the Mariners' many young pitchers breaks camp.
AL Champions: Angels
They have three big name hitters, solid pitching, and an owner hungry for a championship ring. If they can win the division, they can go far in the playoffs. Otherwise I really think the Yankees are in a better position as a playoff team. Power is hard to rely on in the postseason, so their more balanced lineup in relation to contact and power may help them, so long as it can get them to the playoffs.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

MLB and Steroids: new consequences

So once again any claim that the so called "steroid era" is a thing of the past dwindles as a major story breaks in Miami linking more baseball players to steroid use. It comes as no surprise to this fan. It reminds me why trying to draw lines in the sand about who is in/out on awards, who should be rewarded/penalized because of the steroid era just is too blurry of a line to draw. And as a sport writer (I believe from Boston) put it in regards to this last year's Hall of Fame vote, all you may really be doing is rewarding those who were better at covering it up.

It is no secret from past blogs of mine that I don't think the BWAA should be trying to sort out the steroid problem, by voting against those they deem guilty, even those who are, since it just makes the whole thing a joke.

That said, what they see is that the suspension and testing system is not deterring players enough. And they want something more to be done. My problem is in part they are essentially imposing not only unequally (past eras of baseball have used things considered cheating today with no consequences to HoF, past eras have used steroids with no reprimand), but also under suspicion, and with no real say/rights of the players. The player has no voice in the BWAA. Take Ryan Braun, who has a voice/chance to appeal in the MLB system. That gets his ruling overturned. But it does not matter in the BWAA's court. He has no say there. The other issue is the players not only have no voice in their defense against suspicions, accusations, or whatever else, but they have no say in the system. The MLBPA has a place in the drug testing system, approved it, they have a rep on the appeal for drug tests. They have rights. They have voice. They are part of the process. They agree to it and willingly take part in it. This is where further discipline or new means to curbing drug use must come from. Not from as I regularly call it BWAA vigilante justice...but from inside the game.

Perhaps there is a new place for this too. The idea comes from what the Yankees are reportedly trying to do now to Alex Rodriguez. Basically, now that ARod has been associated with ARoids again, the Yankees are trying to use that to void his contract, trying to find some kind of breach in the language to not have to pay the other $114 million they owe him. Now I should be clear up front: what the Yankees are doing here is wrong. What I particularly do not like is it really has nothing to do with steroids, they simply made a mistake by signing ARod to this crazy long contract for crazy lots of dollars and now they don't want to pay for it, as they have watched his skills and health deteriorate rapidly these last few years. I don't think it will work what they are doing, I don't think the MLBPA will let it happen. I believe ARod already missed out on a lot of money owed to him when the Rangers were allowed to declare bankruptcy and did not have to cover some money on his contract that was to be deferred. I don't think MLBPA would stand for MLB robbing him again, particularly because we all know that steroids really has nothing to do with why the Yankees want to void the contract.

The other reason is there is neither precedence or agreement on this kind of "punishment" for revealed/alleged steroid use. However, perhaps there should be. I don't think it should be imposed ex post facto on players, like trying to suspend a player today for steroid use in 1999 before the suspension for drug use system was in place. I think it needs to be something agreed upon, either MLB wide with the MLBPA or between teams and players when they sign free agent deals. If you want your guaranteed money and guaranteed years, you play clean. If you are suspended, the team can without penalty void the rest of the contract and grant your outright release. Like the current suspension system it won't stop the problem, but may curb it, particularly among the game's biggest names - which is currently where it is most embarrassing to the sport. But ask yourself, if Alex Rodriguez did in fact juice, would he if his $114 million were on the line? If his contract stated the team then can also impose drug tests (not just the random MLB ones) whenever it has suspicion, and the consequences meant more than some missed games, and two months' salary, but instead could mean your entire deal, would you do it? Now this does not mean the team has to release the player, they may decide to eat the bad press, they may think the performance was not linked to steroids (after all, there is a rather large school of thought that argues steroids have little real impact on most players' performance), whatever the reason the team may want to keep that player. But if using gives the team the option to back out, it will especially keep big name players or struggling players from trying to juice to stay/approach the star level of the game.

Also, this would be something either in accord with the current drug system (thus the decision based on successful/unsuccessful appeal) or could be appealed legally. In some way the player would have a chance to fight the ruling because again, voice and a part matters. But the player will also have a voice by either the entire MLBPA signing on similar to how they did with the previous testing system, or by it being a player-team agreement on free agent contracts, in which case the player himself individually signs and agrees to this system. Call me western democratic type, but I think having a voice in this matters.

But I think it would work, that is, help the game. I think Ryan Brauns and Alex Rodriguezes of the world would have a lot more to lose. I think it would help the teams get their own houses in order here. It would give a nasty consequence.

If Alex Rodriguez had his contract voided today, what would he sign for? Maybe a 1-2 year deal, 5-10 million?

Maybe the one problem with this is good players could still get good deals (but as Melky Cabrera showed this year, they won't get nearly as big or nearly as long, and guaranteed years is a big thing in the sports industry). Teams would also probably be hesitant to test/release their stars (but maybe more eager to test aging players on the end of large contracts). But the added risk gives players perhaps 100 million reasons to not juice. Those with lots of money, or aging and with a limited market left, getting paid now far more than they are worth will not try to live up to their contract or return from injury faster by taking shortcuts.

Then maybe the stars and future hall of famers won't show up on other reports of steroid use or other positive tests. Oh wait, they won't be future hall of famers either. Man I hate the BWAA...

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Rejecting Jesus in our Hometown

It's been a busy month for me, I accepted a call to two churches and have been preparing for the whole transition. Packing makes for little blogging. But I really did want to get a Sunday reflection in. So time to reflect on the upcoming text.

This Sunday will be continuing from last Sunday's reading on Christ's trip to synagogue in his hometown of Nazareth. The text comes from Luke 4:

21 Then he began to say to them, "Today this scripture has been fulfilled in your hearing." 22 All spoke well of him and were amazed at the gracious words that came from his mouth. They said, "Is not this Joseph's son?" 23 He said to them, "Doubtless you will quote to me this proverb, "Doctor, cure yourself!' And you will say, "Do here also in your hometown the things that we have heard you did at Capernaum.' "24 And he said, "Truly I tell you, no prophet is accepted in the prophet's hometown. 25 But the truth is, there were many widows in Israel in the time of Elijah, when the heaven was shut up three years and six months, and there was a severe famine over all the land; 26 yet Elijah was sent to none of them except to a widow at Zarephath in Sidon. 27 There were also many lepers in Israel in the time of the prophet Elisha, and none of them was cleansed except Naaman the Syrian." 28 When they heard this, all in the synagogue were filled with rage. 29 They got up, drove him out of the town, and led him to the brow of the hill on which their town was built, so that they might hurl him off the cliff. 30 But he passed through the midst of them and went on his way.

For all those preachers who have had angered parishioners over your sermon, just remember that Christ preached a sermon that made his next door neighbors want to chuck him off the cliff! Maybe a few complaints, critiques, or even hard hearts ain't as bad as we some times feel when we encounter it.

What seems so interesting about this text is that it is not some unbearable law that Christ is speaking. We could imagine the reaction were it some unwanted message. Like Savonius' pietistic outcries in Hammer of God which enraged those he particularly targeted with his preaching, we could maybe make sense of this if Christ were pointing fingers. But this is no series of woes sermon like in another part of the Gospel. There is no mention of broods of vipers or hypocrites. Instead, as we heard this last week, Jesus tells the people that Isaiah's prophecy of good news, captives set free, has been fulfilled. This is what started it all. However amazed they were, they couldn't imagine little Jesus from around the corner as the fulfillment. While in John's gospel Nathaniel from outside of Nazareth asks "what good could come from Nazareth?" (John 1.46) perhaps the folks from Nazareth were saying the same thing. Luke and Matthew both impress the fact that Jesus was born in Bethlehem, Matthew says the scribes all told Herod that was where the Messiah was to come from (Matthew 2.4-5), and the inclusion in the Gospels likely also meant others expected this too, so much so that it was important to tell how a man called Jesus of Nazareth could have come out of Bethlehem. Maybe those people in Nazareth too simply could not then imagine how the Messiah could come from their town.

Maybe it was because he was so ordinary. The fullness of Christ's humanity is obvious here, in that those who grew up with him (or watched him grow up) could see nothing more than a mere man. They did not even see him as a prophet of God. Those who quest for the "historical Jesus" or see him as nothing more than a great teacher, but seek to remove the supernatural, miraculous, and salvific from the portrayal of who this Jesus "really was" - even they to some extent saw him as a prophet of justice or radical rabbi that led to a political death. But yet the people who saw him grow up could not perceive him as even a prophet, much less liberator. Here we can see how human Christ was, so human they could not see him as special enough to possibly have done that which he said the Spirit of God anointed him to do.

But this is not merely about Christ's humanity apart from his deity. Perhaps what Luther was so keen on was understanding how in that which seemed so human of Christ (ultimately his death) was precisely where God was revealed. Here God's work is revealed in a place where no one expects or believes it, here God is in someone who everyone knew and yet no one seemed to know this about him or grasp or in the end believe what his work was about. The very fact that Christ was so ordinary, so human is in fact a revelation of the divine at work, it is the revelation that to the most obscure, ordinary, or more importantly, in the place you'd least expect it - that is where God not only appeared, but did his great work. Like Elijah at Mt. Horeb when God appears not in the fire or quaking but in the gentle wind/stillness/tiny voice - there was God. God can be found in the inglorious.

Yet as surely as the people in Nazareth we can forget that today. Especially when we groom ourselves to see God in the good or the glorious. I'm not saying God is not a source of our blessings, but I am saying that when we can only see God there we can miss him completely, because at times we will not see blessing in our life. When only grief, trouble, or even the mundane and ordinary is all we see - then we start trying to reach for some sort of blessing lest God be absent from our lives altogether. But the word of the cross does not find Jesus in mere blessing, rather in execution for the less than ordinary (crucifixion would never happen on an ordinary Roman citizen). The ordinary people at Nazareth can only see the ordinary Jesus, not the work of God there. Even though they had heard about the things Jesus had done in Galilee they could not see it when he showed up for church that Sabbath. We too week in week out can hear great things but not see it nor believe it when it is preached into our lives. This is especially true when our lives don't feel touched by God but rather forsaken by God. This is when we need the word of the cross - that when Christ takes the curse upon himself, it means no cursedness could mean forsakenness. Instead we know Christ is closer now than ever before, taking upon himself and giving of himself unto us.

The rejection at Nazareth is a difficult text for faith communities to wrestle with because we usually look and say that we see Christ for who he is. We didn't reject him (maybe even some of us go so far as to say we chose him), we praise him, we disagree with what those Nazarenes did. If you want any idea as to how apart we see ourselves from the people of Nazareth just look at our music. Trying to pick hymns for this Sunday that fit with the Gospel is insane. To find one that really hits home this week we are turning to a well known holy week hymn "Ah Holy Jesus" which includes such great lines as "by thine own rejected" and "twas I Lord Jesus, I it was denied thee, I crucified thee!" Most of our music will talk of Jesus dying for us but not acknowledge our part in his death, especially our rejection of Christ. We sing "Stand up, Stand up for Jesus" and "I Want to Walk as a Child of the Light". But this text should show how those who would think they know Jesus best can turn on him, reject him, and not see him. We should not put ourselves up against the people of Nazareth but ask ourselves when in our lives has Christ declared us free and we not believe it and in what places life seemed too ordinary or worse too cursed to believe God had done something amazing for us in Christ. When have we revolted against Christ in our hometown? When do we make a disconnect from the story of scripture, the words of worship, and our daily lives and faith?

If this text causes us to face that question, perhaps we can see the beauty of the Gospel of Christ in it as well. This story shows where rejection drives: To Christ's death. Ever ask or get asked why Jesus had to die? It's because we would have it no other way. It's not because God could not set the prisoners free without Christ's death. We see in this reading: it was fulfilled in their hearing: Christ could set the prisoners free. But what we also see is how prophet after prophet gets marginalized, abused, disbelieved, and even killed. When we don't think we need this message, don't want this message, or ultimately don't believe this message we reject it and the messenger. But in Christ, God took our rejection (the cross) and turned it on us, using our very act of rejecting the one who comes to set the prisoners free as the great act of freedom.

In the season of Epiphany Christ constantly is being revealed. It is nice that in the midst of these texts we are reminded how blind we can be to the revelation. How the one revealed as God's Son was revealed also to be so ordinarily human. It is good to know we need this revelation, and we need it regularly, because even when we know of the great things God has done, days come when we drive Christ out of our hearts, not knowing Who is working before us in this world. It is good that as we are frustrated over the disbelief of others, or the slowness or lapses of belief in ourselves, that we see how regular that struggle was, and hear that the rejection from the people God would turn into the redemption of the people. It is God's persistence not just in revealing himself, but in his work for us. It lets us know that Christ came to set the prisoners free, and would do anything even die to do so. It lets us honestly sing 'twas I Lord Jesus, I it was denied thee. I crucified thee!

And it lets us hear Christ on that cross in response 'Father forgive them, they know not what they are doing.' And know in hearing that, in the Easter resurrection, he set us free indeed.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Reworking Draft Pick Compensation

This year was the new year under the draft pick compensation system reworking that happened with the new collective bargaining agreement. It basically eliminated the old type A type B system and mixed the two together and no longer became about performance per se.

Under the old system type B free agents if offered arbitration and sign elsewhere the player's previous team would receive a player in the compensation round (between round 1-2) of the draft. Type A free agents who were signed would mean the previous team will receive a compensatory pick like a type B, but would also receive one of the other team's draft picks. If you were one of the top 15 teams in the league you lost a first round pick, if you were one of the worst 15 teams in baseball you surrendered a second round pick. If you were the Yankees of the 2008-2009 offseason you sign three type A free agents and lose your first three draft picks. Yeah, the poor Blue Jays that year got a third rounder as compensation for losing AJ Burnett. Bummer. The other issue with the old system was teams would have "hand shake" agreements with their type B players who they were not going to resign that they would offer arbitration and the player would turn it down in order for the team to be guaranteed an extra draft pick with no risk to the player's market since he didn't cost the new team anything extra like a type A free agent would. These agreements didn't hurt anybody, but removed all the risk involved in a team when they offer a player arbitration. Part of the risk was supposed to be that the player could say yes. And it also besmirched the fact that the entire notion of draft pick compensation was to compensate teams who lost players they were trying to keep (but could not in a competitive market). Instead it was compensating teams who had no interest in retaining players, but simply had good relationships between player and general manager. Yet another problem which emerged in this system was that one really good season could rank you as a type A free agent (since the rankings were based on a system that only looked at your last two years before free agency). This was a real problem for otherwise mediocre players, or even worse relief pitchers. Aside from the elite closers, teams just were not really willing to surrender a draft pick (especially a first rounder) for a relief pitcher, since relievers are much harder to predict in performance and bullpens are easy to revamp cheaply. This led to relievers having no pitching market. The most notable example of this would be Juan Cruz, who received type A status, could not get a job, and his team and new team had to work a sign and trade whereas his original team signed him and traded him to the team that wanted him. These are issues the new system tried to eliminate.

Basically under the new system, if your team offers you enough money (what is known as a "qualifying offer") and you turn it down by a specific deadline, any team that signs you will lose a draft pick. The qualifying offer number changes from year to year, because it basically has to make the player one of the highest paid players for the year. This offseason a qualifying offer had to be about 13 million for the year. Players that turn down their qualifying offer now cost the other team like under the type A system but benefit the previous team like the type B system. Or close to it. That means teams with the first 10 picks (as opposed to first 15 in the old system) have their first round pick protected but must surrender a second rounder. Teams who have picks 11-30 will forfeit that draft pick if they sign a player who has received a qualifying offer. The team who made the qualifying offer however will no longer receive that pick in addition to a compensatory pick, instead they will only receive extra picks in the compensatory round.

The thinking behind this is now only players who teams are willing to retain for top dollar (in theory the top free agents/top talent) will receive qualifying offers. Since promising 13 million for the year would be quite tempting for mediocre talent to take. It also removes the type B concept where teams could receive compensation with no real commitment or effort to keep a player. There are no handshake agreements when losing a draft pick is attached to you. It will affect your market to some degree.

But there are some problems still. Part of it is the market, that is, players who may not be what we consider the top tier talent may be expected top tier contracts because of a thin market at their position. Kyle Lohse is an example of this. After two strong seasons, especially this year, coupled with a thin pitching market, he seemed poised for big money and multiple years. But who thinks Kyle Lohse is one of baseball's best pitchers? Who thinks he will replicate these last two years as he enters his mid-thirties? The market inflated his dollar value. This made the Cardinal's decision to give him a qualifying offer obvious. Other factors such as agents affect this, since some agents (most notably Scott Boras) don't usually settle for one year deals, especially at the start of an offseason when the deadline for the qualifying offer is made. These lead to players obviously declining offers, but teams wondering if the player with worth not just the cost of an inflated market (which the way money is pouring into the industry probably is not going to stop some teams) but the cost of a draft pick is a serious issue.

The new system also favors teams like the Yankees, big market teams who can absorb some risk and make an offer to a more fringe player, like Raphael Soriano, who in my view is hard to justify 13 million a year, especially when you have Mariano Rivera as your closer so you are paying him to set up. Knowing Soriano wanted to close, the Yankees could gamble on Soriano and make a qualifying offer. If he accepts, they can afford one year of Soriano at 13 million and have an excellent bullpen. Because compensation is tied to salary amount, bigger market teams can take more risks and offer it to players whereas there is no way a team like Tampa Bay could make a qualifying offer unless they were 100% certain the player would turn it down or they really wanted to keep the player. Basically the small market teams will have to either truly want the player or be certain. Large market teams are not necessarily committing to wanting the player, even though that is what this system is still supposed to be about. It simply means only the large market teams can betray the system.

Then of course there is the problem with the value of draft picks under the new system. This may be the biggest issue with the new system. Now you don't just have draft picks, you have a spending limit on those draft picks. This cap on draft picks is a total amount spent for the year, but it can be divided any way you'd like among players that you draft/sign. Your cap total in part depends on what number picks you have (so since a 12th overall pick should be getting a better signing bonus than a 30th overall pick, your total draft spending would be higher because you have a higher pick). This means losing a draft pick not only impacts how early and how often you draft, but how much you can spend on the players you draft. This changes the value of draft picks, because even if you could live without that draft pick, you might feel you need more money to be able to sign the picks you want.

With the current system, we are seeing several players who had essentially no market. No surprise Boras clients are among those left (meaning you are already gonna have to over pay for the player's services in years and money, much less in draft picks). Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, two of the better free agents this year, have had little to no market. For Bourn, part of it was that the teams (Phillies and Nationals) that might have been willing to give up a draft pick and spend a lot of money for him ended up getting their speedy center fielders courtesy of the Twins. But the lack of any real market afterwards is clearly in part because of draft pick compensation. This is to the point where the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance. And the Mets were rumored to be interested but not willing to give up their first round pick (number 11, the highest first rounder you can lose). Lohse also has seemed to have no interest. MLBtraderumors.com, one of my favorite sites this time of the year, which posts just about any rumor on players out there don't even have much traffic on him this year. Prior to Scott Boras pulling a rabbit out of his hat, the same seemed true with Raphael Soriano who just now signed with the Nationals, despite being perhaps the best reliever on the market.

So now the question is how do we rework this system? I have an idea, but then an opinion. Here is my idea: that the compensation system fluctuate. I don't think we should alter the rules around draft picks and caps. I definitely think the amount of money going to draft picks were crazy. You shouldn't have that much leverage in contract negotiations before playing a game of professional baseball. If costing a draft pick does not also affect your draft cap, it actually might be an incentive for some teams to sign players with draft compensation so they have more freedom in draft spending. I'm not sure that benefits the system. Then large market teams will again be able to not only sign the big names, but have the money to perhaps sign the best players who could then use signability as leverage to drop in the draft. However, we could fluctuate the draft cost based on the market. The idea would be that after January 20, a good cutoff time for when the top free agents should be signed, the compensation decreases by dropping a round. Under this system, if the Mets signed Bourn now, he would only cost the Mets' second round pick instead of their first round pick. This would not affect what the Braves receive, since under the new system their compensation would still be between rounds 1 and 2. It only impacts what the Mets give up. The idea is that players who lose their market entirely due to compensation may get a last minute revitalization in their market. The benefit of this system is that instead of year in year out trying to fix holes in the system or rework it so it doesn't impact this or that player the next year, this system self fixes. That is, it is designed to offer relief to those who are hurt by the system. It doesn't fix all the problems, most notably the issue of large market teams benefiting from this system. But it still fixes the main complaint most people have over compensation and that is how it affects the market of certain players. Whenever we find teams to think a player is not worth that cost , they will drop some in the compensation later in the game.

I don't think this would impact most compensation players. That is, the ones this new system was designed for. The Zach Greinkes and Josh Hamiltons of the world will still be signed in December because players that sought after teams don't care about the draft pick cost. They want that kind of talent. There is always a risk of teams waiting until after the deadline to bid, but I just don't see it happening with the elite players, and perhaps it should with the less elite. What it would do is especially open up the market of teams that rely on draft picks for their franchise to get a chance to go in on top free agents. But there is that risk.

That was my idea. This is my opinion: That the system not be redone. I think we ought to keep the system exactly the way it is. There are two reasons here: the first is that players are taking a risk when they turn down a qualifying offer and that risk should remain. If the new compensation system is meant to only compensate for players that teams really want to keep, then it also means the system should affect their market some and it should in fact make players consider staying with their team, not just because of the money, but because of how compensation will affect their market. When a team makes a qualifying offer, especially smaller market teams, they are taking a risk that the player will not accept (or they want him to), and therefore there should be equal risk involved for those players who turn down the offer. Furthermore, if a couple players each year suffer a horrible market because of draft pick compensation, it will make players more willing in the future to accept qualifying offers, which will make teams more discerning on who they offer it to. Do you think next year's Kyle Lohse will weigh whether teams value him as much as he does. And if next year's Kyle Lohse accepts the qualifying offer, maybe the following year teams won't make that year's Kyle Lohse the qualifying offer, and his market will be wide open. Only by letting this system play out with all of its risk can the concept of making and accepting/denying qualifying offers ever come closer to the philosophy behind the compensation system in the first place. There are ways we could revitalize the market for these players each year, but we shouldn't. Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse should maybe have to take 1-2 year deals at far less than anyone predicted in order for teams to be willing to surrender a pick for them. That will impact all the decisions in who gets and who accepts offers in the future.

Another reason is that this can actually benefit smaller market teams too. As I advocated in a previous post when I urged the Pirates to sign Kyle Lohse, I think the way this impacts a player's market could give a chance for less attractive free agent destinations to lure free agents without having to do ridiculous overpays that have historically been the only way to attract better tier players from the top destinations. The Pirates, between record streak of losing seasons and not having the dough to buy free agents have never been major buyers on the market. But here they could be. When Kyle Lohse has no one willing to commit to him, a 3 yr/30 million dollar offer from Pittsburgh looks a lot better than it would were the Angels and Phillies and Yankees all involved too. By the system also limiting the market of better players, it gives the little guy a better chance to enter it.

I think we should also remember Raphael Soriano. As Scott Boras has proven year in and year out it only takes one team willing to pay the cost. A limited market may be unfortunate, but it does not also mean that a player cannot get a good contract, because they only need the one team to jump in. It is more boring, it removes player's leverage, but it does not remove the possibility of getting a great contract with a great team. Just like when teams need to at some point pay good money to get the players they want, that can happen too with draft picks. I will not be surprised if the Rangers losing out again on another top target (Justin Upton...which by the way I get props on suggesting that destination 24 hours before he went to Atlanta) I think the Rangers are going to be desperate enough to go for Lohse or Bourn, and because of their disappointing offseason I think Lohse and Bourn would still have some leverage in negotiations to get a good deal. The limited market not only opens options for teams less fortunate on the free agent front like the Pirates, but it also allows these teams that have missed out throughout the offseason to make a big move late.

Basically, the system is not a bad one. Say what we might about it. And we shouldn't just rework it now because Scott Boras clients remain unsigned, we should let the market play out which is the real way to make it better in the future, by letting there be real risk and real reward.

That and I don't want to have to learn a new system again.