Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Why Teams needing pitching should target R.A. Dickey

It is no secret that the Mets are willing to trade current ace and reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. Dickey rightly won that award after going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, while striking out 230 batters in 233.2 innings (8.9 k/9 compared to a 2.1 BB/9). As I've noted in previous blogs, his value is a bit hard to determine (again I'll reference this great article by Rosenthal). But if your team needs pitching, Dickey should be your top target. Here's why:


  1. His stats indicate he can impact your team. That is, beyond just the contribution of performance, top pitchers have other impacts for their team. They stop losing streaks (which he can do, being a 20 game winner last year for a mediocre at best team), increases team confidence each time he goes out there (he does not do this as much because he's underrated), energizes fans when acquired (underrated or not getting a Cy Young winner and rotation upgrade always enlivens fans), he gives bullpens the rest they need to be effective throughout the week (he led the NL in complete games and innings pitched last year). The positive impact a durable, reliable pitcher has is something teams need.
  2. He's a knuckleballer. Good knuckleballers are highly underrated pitchers. But they shouldn't be, especially Dickey. Just as much as a good starter impacts the rest of the team and the effectiveness of other players, so do knuckleballers. This is because the pitch speed and adjustment to facing a knuckleballer can impact batters' swings for several games. Putting him especially say between two power pitchers who rely on blazing fastballs (same for the bullpen when he is relieved) can have a positive impact on those players' effectiveness because the batters' timing is still off from facing the knuckleballer.
  3. Knuckleballers also age more favorably. Dickey's one downside may be he is rather old. But because he does not rely on velocity and the knuckleball puts far less strain on his arm, he likely has more longevity to his success and a smaller chance at injury. Therefore extending Dickey after acquiring him is not a horrible demand but a smart move.
  4. He's a Cy Young winner. If you need pitching, and a Cy Young arm is available, you should get it. Especially when he just won the Cy Young. For whatever reason that one would assume Dickey is not a "true ace" he has shown how strong of a pitching asset he is. And really going back the last three years he has been a very effective pitcher. But winning the Cy Young this year just shows how effective he can be.
  5. His reported contract demands are very reasonable. Dickey is only owed 5 million this year. And he reportedly wants two more years and 26 million more. Considering the current pitching market, which is both unimpressive and dolling out millions to the likes of Joe Blanton, to get a Cy Young winner at an average annual salary of 10 million a year is a bargain. And since he is a knuckleballer, it is more likely to still be closer to a value by the end of the contract.
I'm a little surprised that no one has stepped up enough to get the Mets to ship him off, since they seem determined to do so. Considering the state of the Mets nation, trading Dickey who does not appear to be in the long term plan makes sense. But with James Shields traded and Zack Greinke signed, the market of top quality pitchers are thinning, making it the ideal time to deal him. If they wait until Annibal Sanchez signs that might be the best chance at top return, but the risk is by that point major players for Dickey will have moved on.

If I were to identify an ideal target for Dickey it would be Detroit. The Tigers need to do something to offset the increasing improvement of the Royals. They have the money needed to extend him no problem. They could slot him quit effectively between Verlander and Scherzer. Additionally, they could offer a the Mets in addition to young prospects/players a quality, controllable pitcher like Porcello to also offset that spot in the rotation. Exactly what prospects would go with him I don't know enough about Detroit's system to speculate, but the Dickey would be a great fit for them.

How much the Mets ask for, that is the one real question...

No comments:

Post a Comment