Winter Meetings Predictions

It happens to be the busiest time of the year for Baseball Shopping too. Winter Meetings begins the time when GM's and agents are together in one place, which allows for a lot of numbers and names to get exchanged. It's not Black Friday deals, but it is Black Friday kind of transactions. Big names often find their homes around this time, and blockbuster deals happen. And the free agent market thins out and gets set at all the positions as players sign.

With that in mind, here are my 10 predictions (some bold some not) for this year's winter meetings:

1. Brewers make quiet additions: Doug Melvin recently made comments suggesting a 2013 payroll of about $80 million, which is around my initial conservative guess of $83 million. That means the team is not going to be in the market for big names, and will likely try to spread that money out over various low risk players hoping one or two pan out. The best chance at a big name is Dempster who has been a rumored target. But between cost cutting and Melvin reportedly not wanting to offer more than two years I think someone else will land him. I think Milwaukee will be patient on getting a starter and will focus on the bullpen. Thus expect 1-3 arms to be signed/acquired over the meetings, but with Axford still on the roster I would not expect the top closer arms to sign in Milwaukee.
2. Twins will sign at least one starter and trade/sign a second: Since Minnesota is still up the creek without a paddle, they need to get pitching. Considering some of the names they are targeting I think they won't have trouble snagging one or two of them. They still also have Willingham in particular as a trade chip, so if they are not attracting the free agents they want I expect them to send him somewhere for someone, hopefully they will do better at fixing their current team than when they dealt Span recently. So I expect them to walk away with some of the rotation spots filled, and would not be surprised if they add a reliever or two as well.
3. Yankees will resign Ichiro Suzuki: Ichiro's agent seems to be frustrated with the silence from the Yankees to date, and Ichiro is starting to generate interest from other teams, but his comments earlier in the offseason clearly indicate he favors returning to New York. And given that he is an ideal one year candidate and New York is trying to avoid multi-yaer deals with players so they can stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2014. He is a professional veteran who thrived in his limited time at Yankee stadium last year. He is a perfect fit for New York.
4. The Phillies will make a big move: Philadelphia has become a major market team in recent years and watched their dynasty fall apart last season. They even unloaded some of their big names like Pence and Victorino. But now they are poised for a new year. The thing is the Phillies are not quite in a position to be considered serious contenders (certainly not favorites) in the division but also are not that far away from it. With Atlanta having a lot of holes to fill this would be the time to try a comeback. Or the team could start to unload for the future. Either way they will probably indicate their direction at winter meetings, but I do not expect them to stand pat. They could either stun us with a trade sending away someone like Cliff Lee or they could steal the attention by signing a Josh Hamilton or Michael Bourn. I think the latter is more likely.
5. Seattle either trades for a big name hitter or signs Nick Swisher: The Mariners have enough pitching they could put together a package for someone although I don't know who, they do not seem a match for Justin Upton. More likely though I think they pony up and sign Nick Swisher. It just makes sense. Seattle needs offense bad. Swisher will cost though a lot less than say Josh Hamilton. Their reluctance to deal Felix Hernandez means the team really needs to capitalize on the years they have him. And after several seasons of disappointment, this may be general manager Jack Z's last offseason to turn this team around. Swisher's flexibility of playing 1B or OF lets them plug him in around the young players that thrive most and replace the ones who are just not performing. So long as Swisher does not need to play for a contender (already having a ring I don't think he will) this is the team that needs him most and therefore will likely pay the most (or offer the most years).
6. Zack Greinke signs with LA. I just don't know which LA team gets him. Whether it is the Angels of Anaheim  or the Dodgers, no other teams out there seem to have more money or desire for Greinke. I doubt he ever packed up his bags after the season ended. But when the dust settles this winter meeting, I think he'll still be in the City of Angels, and be getting paid a lot more to do it.
7. Zack Greinke does not beat CC Sabathia's record contract: There is some speculation that he will. But Greinke in my view just is not that good. The only pitcher who I think had a real chance at that was Tim Lincecum, that is, until he decided to have a horrible 2012. Had they hit the open market Verlander or King Felix I suppose probably could beat that total too. Greinke will get close maybe even match Sabathia, but I think without the Yankees bidding (which they won't) he's not getting that money. But he will surpass Matt Cain's contract and become the highest paid right-handed pitcher ever.
8. Justin Upton gets traded: This might be the boldest prediction yet. Mainly because teams have been trying to trade for Upton since last year and have thus far been unsuccessful. The Diamondbacks continue to have a high asking price and are seeking a young short stop. But enough teams need affordable offense that someone will put together the package. I think Boston and Tampa Bay could meet the demand. If Texas got desperate so could they. Houston could really surprise us by making a package around Lowrie. Where he goes I don't know, but if Arizona waits and Upton struggles at all this year his value will tank, and I just don't think either team or player wants him there. If it happens in Winter Meetings it will be in its final hours, but I think as big names get signed teams will up their pursuit of Upton.
9. Pierzynski wears a new uniform: AJ Pierzynski has been a member of the White Sox since 2005 and he keeps quietly doing a great job for them. But Chicago has Flowers who can step in and catch for this team. More than that, AJ added power to his game this year and there are lots of teams looking for catching. Personally I think he is a perfect match for either New York teams. He has the kind of New York attitude, and Yankee stadium would perhaps let him still show some lefty power even if his 2012 power was a fluke.
10. A Cy Young Winner gets traded: Perhaps most likely a 2012 Cy Young winner. The Rays may trade out of their pitching depth and Price being a Boras client is going to get expensive fast (especially after securing the Cy Young). While Shields and Hellickson are supposedly more likely to get traded Price would net the best return. But even more likely than that is NL winner knuckleballer Dickey who the Mets are reportedly shopping after extension talks have failed to progress. It's not often it happens, but a Cy Young winner may be dealt shortly after winning his award.

Well there you have it. 10 predictions. We will check in after Winter Meetings and see how I fared. Hopefully better than when I predicted the Gold Glove awards. Tune in then, until then - have a great offseason.